000
FXUS62 KTAE 290558
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
205 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2008

.SYNOPSIS...WITH THE STRONG AND COLD SFC RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST...SFC WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO SLACKEN ACROSS THE
REGION...ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN THEIR STEADY FALL UNDER THE CLEAR
SKIES. AS OF 11 PM EDT...SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS IN THE CWA HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S (TALLAHASSEE...QUINCY...AND CROSS
CITY) WITH THE COLDEST TEMP OF 36 NOW REPORTED AT VALDOSTA. WITH
THESE VALUES ALREADY IN THE BOOKS BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THE CURRENT
FREEZE WARNING APPEARS TO BE IN VERY GOOD SHAPE...AND WILL LEAVE THE
TABLE BELOW IN FOR REFERENCE.

HERE ARE SOME CLIMATOLOGICAL STATISTICS REGARDING FREEZES AND RECORD
LOW TEMPS...

THIS MORNING (OCTOBER 29TH)
TALLAHASSEE...................31 SET IN 1987
APALACHICOLA..................41 SET IN 1976
PANAMA CITY 5N (COOP SITE)....36 SET IN 2001
HEADLAND AL...................32 SET IN 1952
ALBANY 3 SE (COOP SITE).......30 SET IN 1987

ALL TIME RECORD LOWS FOR OCTOBER
TALLAHASSEE...................30 SET IN 1973...1989 AND 1993
APALACHICOLA..................33 SET IN 1993
PANAMA CITY 5N (COOP SITE)....33 SET IN 1989
HEADLAND AL...................26 SET IN 2001
ALBANY 3 SE (COOP SITE).......28 SET IN 1989

AVERAGE FALL FIRST FREEZE                     PERIOD OF RECORD
TALLAHASSEE (AIRPORT).........NOVEMBER 19TH    1948 TO PRESENT
TALLAHASSEE (DOWNTOWN)........DECEMBER 6TH     1885 TO 1961
APALACHICOLA..................DECEMBER 14TH    1975 TO PRESENT
PANAMA CITY 5N................DECEMBER 10TH    1972 TO PRESENT
HEADLAND AL...................NOVEMBER 13TH    1950 TO PRESENT
ALBANY 3SE....................NOVEMBER 19TH    1902 TO PRESENT

OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...ALTHOUGH SCA CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER
BEING OBSERVED...DO EXPECT THE SCEC LEVEL (15 TO 20 KT) WINDS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE LEGS OVERNIGHT...AS THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE ABOVE MENTIONED SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS IT VERY SLOWLY SLIDES
E-NE TO A POSITION CENTERED NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH IT MAY INITIALLY WEAKEN BELOW 1030 MB TODAY AND
TONIGHT...IT IS PROGGED TO RE-BUILD TO BETWEEN 1030 AND 1035 MB ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE STEEP TROF DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL QUICKLY DE-AMPLIFY...AS THE POTENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADS FURTHER NE INTO CANADA...LEAVING US WITH MORE
ZONAL FLOW AFTER TODAY. WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...BUT IT MAY BE SEVERAL MORE
DAYS BEFORE CLIMO LEVEL TEMPS RETURN. WE ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT
LOW TEMPS ONCE AGAIN FOR TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME...EXPECT LOWS TO
BE GENERALLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE BOARD. PARTS OF
THE INTERIOR SE FL BIG BEND MAY BRIEFLY REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH FREEZING...BUT WILL
CURRENTLY PLAN ON USING AREAS OF FROST OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
PATTERN TO BEGIN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A RATHER "BAGGY"
LOOK TO THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH VERY WEAK
TROUGHING OVERHEAD. ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGING WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST PROVIDING A
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW TO THE AREA. STILL SHOULD BE DRY TO START THIS
PERIOD WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH KEEPING THE BEST
MOISTURE TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. GFS/ECMWF
BOTH INDICATING A PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS ENERGY IS PROGGED TO REACH THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING SATURDAY AND CUT OFF OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. FROM THIS POINT ON THERE ARE TWO
SCHOOLS OF THOUGHT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS CUT-OFF ENERGY. THE GFS
IS INDICATING A DEEPER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WHICH HOLDS IN
THE VICINITY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A LESS
ORGANIZED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WHICH HAS A BRIEF STAY OVER
THE EASTERN GULF AND WHOSE INFLUENCE EXITS EAST BY THE END OF
SUNDAY. TO SOME DEGREE THIS FASTER AND WEAKER SCENARIO HAS SOME
SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST 00Z CANADIAN WHICH IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE
WITH ITS SOLUTION. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN ALOFT THE
SURFACE PATTERNS ARE QUITE SIMILAR. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SHOULD BE RE-ENFORCED BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS ANOTHER STRONG HIGH DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
WILL USE AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH THIS WEEKEND AND EXIT THE SYSTEM
NOT AS FAST AS THE ECMWF BUT FASTER THAN THE GFS. ALLOWING FOR THIS
SOMEWHAT SLOWER SOLUTION...WILL HAVE TO INTRODUCE SOME SLIGHT/CHANCE
POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY... MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM TIFTON TO BAINBRIDGE AND PANAMA CITY. UNDER
THIS SCENARIO THE GFS WOULD INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER Q-G
FORCING OVER THE EASTERN ZONES AND IS ALSO SHOWING SOME FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THROUGH THE LOWER/MID-LEVELS. THIS
LIFT WOULD BE FED BY ABUNDANT ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTING WESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. THE RESULT WOULD
BE MAINLY SHALLOW AND FAST MOVING SHOWERS. FORECAST DETAILS AS TO
WHERE THIS MOISTURE/FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED ARE IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS
TIME WITH THE TIMING/EVOLUTION DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE GLOBAL MODELS.
WITH THIS IN MIND WILL AVOID DETAILS AND KEEP THE GRIDS RATHER
BROAD. ALL GUIDANCE HAS THE SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH STACKED RIDGING RETURNING TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS HIGH IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...
WINDS WILL BE NOTICEABLY LIGHTER ACROSS THE AREA THAN ON TUESDAY
WITH GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH STEADILY TODAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN JUST TO THE NW OF THE WATERS...BUT THIS BREAK IN THE
RECENTLY TOUGH CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT
LIVED...AS THE SFC HIGH REBUILDS AND STRENGTHENS TO OUR NE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY CERTAIN ACROSS ALL OF THE FL BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE TODAY AND THURSDAY...SO WILL UPGRADE THURSDAY`S WATCH TO A
WARNING. OVER AL AND GA...ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL BE VERY LOW...LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  63  33  70  42  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
PANAMA CITY  63  39  72  47  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
DOTHAN       62  36  71  41  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALBANY       62  34  70  39  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
VALDOSTA     65  32  71  40  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
CROSS CITY   65  32  74  41  76 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING ALL ZONES.

GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING ALL ZONES.

FL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING ALL
     ZONES...EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COAST.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING ALONG
     THE COAST.

     RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON ALL ZONES.

     RED FLAG WARNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALL ZONES.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION/FIRE WX/LONG TERM...MROCZKA
PUBLIC/MARINE...GOULD