000
WTPZ43 KNHC 300242
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032008
800 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008
 
THE CENTER OF CRISTINA HAS TUCKED WELL UNDERNEATH THE CANOPY OF COLD
CLOUD TOPS SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE HAS INTENSIFIED SOME OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN TO A 3.0
FROM TAFB AND REMAINED A 2.5 FROM SAB.  AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS
SHOWED SEVERAL BELIEVABLE TROPICAL STORM FORCE VECTORS WITH ONE OF
40 KT.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KT.  THE ASCAT
OBSERVATIONS ALSO ALLOWED FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE 34 KT WIND RADII.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING AT 265/8.  A CONTINUATION OF
JUST-SOUTH-OF-DUE-WESTWARD STEERING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO FROM
THE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED DEEP LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF CRISTINA
IS ANTICIPATED.  AFTER TWO DAYS...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF
CRISTINA WILL LIKELY BE ADVECTED ALONG BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. 
MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THIS EVENING AND THE
TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THIS CONSENSUS AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.

WHILE MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR IS IMPINGING UPON CRISTINA...THE MAIN
INHIBITING FACTORS FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION ARE THE RATHER COOL
WATERS AND STABLE AIRMASS.  SLOW DECAY IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
NEXT TWO DAYS AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
THEREAFTER.  THIS INTENSITY PREDICTION IS CLOSEST TO THE SHIPS
STATISTICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0300Z 14.3N 129.2W    40 KT
 12HR VT     30/1200Z 14.1N 130.8W    40 KT
 24HR VT     01/0000Z 13.9N 133.1W    35 KT
 36HR VT     01/1200Z 13.7N 135.4W    30 KT
 48HR VT     02/0000Z 13.6N 137.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     03/0000Z 13.5N 141.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     04/0000Z 13.5N 145.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     05/0000Z 13.5N 149.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN