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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.
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Prognostic Discussions
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Valid: Sep 22 - 26, 2008 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Sep 24 - 30, 2008 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Sep 16, 2008 |
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PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2008
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR SEP 22 - 26 2008
TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN IN DEPICTING A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS... A RIDGE
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA... AND A RIDGE OVER ALASKA. MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCATION OF 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERS WITH THE ECMWF
MODEL HAVING THE LARGEST MAGNITUDE. ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS EXTEND FROM
THE MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST... WHILE BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS PREVAIL IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. IN ALASKA... WELL ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS ARE INDICATED BY ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE WESTERN TROUGHING SHOULD LEAD
TO A WET AND COOL PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST... RIDGING ALOFT
SHOULD RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER... ONSHORE FLOW MAY MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AND IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF
MODELS INDICATE A TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
AND TRACK NORTH. SINCE THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT... ABOVE NOMRAL PRECIPITAITON IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA.
TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL
ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15
PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.
MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5
DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS OFFSET BY UNCERTAINTY
IN THE PATTERN CHANGE FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYLCONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS
FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS)
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE, THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST, AND THE AUTO TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
OFFICIAL BLEND, THE AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY FORECASTS, AND THE DAILY
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 24 - 30 2008:
SINCE YESTERDAY... MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH
ACROSS THE WEST AND INDICATE A SLIGHT PROGRESSION OF THE 500-HPA LONGWAVE
PATTERN. THE OFFICIAL BLEND 500-HPA CHART SHOWS PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND ALASKA WITH A MODERATELY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
CONUS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS THE WESTERN TROUGH ADVANCES EAST... A COOLING TREND
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. MOST PRECIPITATION TOOLS SHOW ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS WITH BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. ONSHORE FLOW COULD BRING NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO COASTAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD... MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR
THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION. RIDGING ALOFT SUPPORTS A CONTINUATION OF THE
RELATIVELY WARM AND DRY PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA. HOWEVER... AN INCREASE
IN PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR IN WESTERN ALASKA AS A TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE
ALUETIANS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL
6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND
25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5.
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS
FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS)
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE, THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST, AND THE AUTO TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
OFFICIAL BLEND, THE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS SUPER
ENSEMBLE MEAN, THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST,
THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
FORECASTS, AND THE DAILY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS.
FORECASTER: PUGH
NOTES:
OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE
CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE
STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS
ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS
CHANGE.
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE -
FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON
AWIPS.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
SEPTEMBER 18
CLICK HERE FOR A GLOSSARY OF TERMS.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19520930 - 19800924 - 19930925 - 19670921 - 19550904
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19800924 - 19520929 - 19930925 - 19670921 - 19740913
6 to 10 day Outlook Table
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 22 - 26, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA N N COLORADO N N
NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A B
AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL B B
8 to 14 day Outlook Table
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 24 - 30, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO B A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B N ARIZONA N N COLORADO B N
NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N
N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A N OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA N N NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A B
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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500mb Heights and Anomalies,
Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill,
Model Guidance Used
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