WORKING HYPOTHESES
- Numerical modelers can learn to incorporate more operational relevance
in their research efforts if they work closely with forecasters in an experimental
forecasting exercise.
- Operational forecasters can make more skillful interpretations of numerical
model output if they work with numerical modelers in an experimental forecasting
exercise.
SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES
To provide forecasting support for the International H2O Program
(IHOP), including:
- Creation of Day 1 and Day 2 Convective Initiation Forecasts in
support of IHOP_2002.
- Creation of Day 1 LLJ/MCS Forecasts in support
of IHOP_2002.
- Subjective verification of Day 1 IHOP_2002 forecasts.
- Evaluation
and subjective verification of parameters associated with convective
initiation from operational and experimental mesoscale numerical
weather prediction models.
- Evaluation of various non-standard observational and derived
data sets associated with IHOP_2002.
- Collaboration and interaction
with visiting IHOP_2002 and Spring Program scientists and participants.
RESULTS
- Probabilistic forecasts were generated for convective initiation and
MCS evolution.
- Identified scientific challenges in the operational prediction of convective
initiation at high temporal resolution as it relates to increasing convective
watch lead times.
PAYOFF
- Developed new operational workstation
display techniques to highlight relevant surface boundaries in full resolution
Eta model grids at 1-hour intervals, and documented complex relationships
between the boundaries and model-generated convection.
- Documented
limited ability of current operational and experimental deterministic
models to routinely predict details of convective initiation, concluding
that ensemble approaches may provide more meaningful probabilistic guidance
to forecasters.
RELATED PUBLICATIONS
Banacos, P. C. and D. M. Schultz. 2005: The use of moisture flux
convergence in forecasting convective initiation: Historical and operational
perspectives. Wea. Forecasting, 20, 351-366.
Karan, H. and K. Knupp, 2006: Mobile Integrated Profiler System
(MIPS) observations of low-level convergent boundaries during IHOP. Mon.
Wea. Rev., 134, 92-112.
Wilson, J. W., and R. D. Roberts, 2006: Summary of convective storm initiation
and evolution during IHOP: Observational and modeling perspective. Mon.
Wea. Rev., 134, 23-47.
Szoke, E. J., J. Brown, and B. Shaw, 2004: Examination of the performance
of several mesoscale models for convective forecasting during IHOP. Preprints, 20th
Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Seattle, WA, Amer. Meteor.
Soc., CD-ROM, J13.6.
2002 SPC/NSSL Spring
Experiment OPERATIONS
SUMMARIES of previous SPC/NSSL Spring Experiments:
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