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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Dec. 28, 1998
YEAR-END TIP SHEET: TOP WEATHER AND
NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER STORIES
NOTE TO EDITORS: Following is a summary
of the major weather and climate events of 1998 and several 1998
National Weather Service highlights that you may want to develop
in your end-of-the-year reporting. Please contact Curtis Carey,
NWS Southern Region Headquarters, Tel. (817) 978-4613 Ext. 140 for
additional information, or if you need a local-tie point of contact,
call Wayne Presnell, Warning Coordination Meteorologist (WCM) (david.presnell@noaa.gov)
at the NWS in Key West, FL at 305-295-1324. This information will
also be put on the NWS Key West homepage on the Internet at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/eyw.
1998 -- A Wet, Warm and Dramatic
Weather Year: From the powerful El Niño and tornadoes
over Florida and the rest of the southeast states and searing heat
in Texas followed by floods, to the might of Hurricanes George and
Mitch, 1998 will go down in the annals of weather history as one
of the most dramatic weather years in recent times. Following is
a summary of some of the major weather and climate events of 1998
in the United States, with particular emphasis on the South.
United States Weather and Climate Summary
The United States was wet and warm in 1998. Based on preliminary
January-November data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA), 1998 was the wettest year since 1973 and
the second wettest year since 1895, when detailed records began
by what is now the National Weather Service. The ranking for wetness
was remarkable given the severe drought that extended from the southern
Plains to Florida during the spring and summer. Nevertheless, extensive
heavy rains primarily in the South turned the year into a wet one.
Depending on temperatures during December, 1998 could end up being
the warmest year on record. Heat was persistent and widespread during
the year, with the country observing its second warmest winter on
record, twenty-eighth warmest spring, ninth warmest summer, and
second warmest autumn.
The greatest number of tropical storms to strike the country since
1985 caused an estimated $6.5 billion in damages, primarily in the
Gulf Coast states, but also helped to relieve drought across the
South. Though the abnormal weather contributed to a 28 percent drop
in the nation's cotton crop and 21 percent drop in the orange crop
compared with 1997, adequate rainfall and lack of sustained heat
in the Corn Belt resulted in record soybean production and the second
greatest corn output. Aided by El Niño-enhanced rains, the
nation harvested its largest wheat crop since 1990, according to
the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
El Niño. Called the "climatic event of
the century," one of the strongest El Niños on record dominated
the winter weather across the country.
El Niño-related storms, floods, and tornadoes during winter-spring
1998 in the Southeast caused over $1 billion in damages and 132
deaths. Florida, where winter rainfall (December - February) averaged
19 inches or 220 percent of normal, recorded both its wettest winter
and wettest November-March period ever. Florida also endured its
deadliest tornado outbreak on record when storms on the night of
Feb. 22 killed 41 people in the Kissimmee area, and destroyed 800
residences (Source: National Weather Service).
The Melbourne Weather Forecast Office has been credited for saving
many more lives during the storm thanks to their significant efforts
in providing advance warning.
The 1997-98 El Niño was the first time that NOAA/NWS scientists
were able to forecast and observe a major climate event from beginning
to end, and their valuable forecasts helped mitigate the potential
impacts. Thusly, NWS issued predictions for the winter 1997-98 that
allowed emergency managers, businesses, communities and individuals
to take steps to prepare.
Active Hurricane Season. A total of 14 tropical
storms and hurricanes developed in the Atlantic basin during the
1998 season. Three hurricanes and four tropical storms made landfall
in the United States this year, the most to strike the nation since
1985. Three hurricanes (Bonnie, Earl, and Georges), as well as Tropical
Storms Charley, Frances, and Mitch, caused an estimated $6.5 billion
in damage to the U.S. South, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands,
according to data released by the NWS' Tropical Prediction Center.
Hurricane Bonnie struck the North Carolina coast on Aug. 26, killing
three; cutting off power to nearly a half-million people; and causing
$720 million dollars in damage. Earl hit the Florida Panhandle on
Sept. 3, causing $79 million in damage. Hurricane Georges caused
$5.1 billion in damage, much of it in Puerto Rico on Sept. 21-22,
where it damaged or destroyed more than 170,000 homes before crossing
the Florida Keys and striking the U.S. Gulf Coast near Biloxi, Mississippi
on Sept. 27 (Source: Federal Emergency Management Agency). Up to
20 inches of rain deluged Puerto Rico as well as northwest Florida
and southeastern Alabama. Hurricane Mitch, which caused an estimated
9,000 deaths in Central America, crossed southern Florida as a tropical
storm on Nov. 4-5, bringing tornadoes, heavy rains, and flooding.
Throughout the season, NOAA scientists, working with NASA and university
collaborators, conducted the most complete and sophisticated campaign
of observations in hurricanes ever. This investment in technology
and research continues to provide better hurricane predictions.
Severe Tornado Outbreaks. Severe storms were
rampant throughout the year, with tornado outbreaks taking many
lives. The NWS increased the warning time to the public with a national
average lead time in 1998 of 11 minutes. Twelve years ago, warnings
could no be issued for a tornado until it touched ground. According
to the NWS, the nation recorded 333 tornadoes in June, about 150
more than average and the second highest June total in 49 years
of record (Source: SPC). The preliminary national death toll from
tornadoes during all of 1998 reached 129, about twice the number
recorded in 1997 and three times the average. By early December,
an estimated 1255 tornadoes had occurred across the U.S., with five
of those being F4-F5 intensity. Here are some of the major outbreaks
in the southern United States:
Central Florida Tornado Outbreak of February 22-23.
During the night of February 22-23, Florida
endured its deadliest tornado outbreak on record; despite advance
warning from the NWS Forecast Office in Melbourne and the
Storm Prediction Center there were numerous casualties. The storms
produced several strong mesocyclones and at least seven tornadoes.
Five of these tornadoes were classified as strong (F2-F3) on the
Fujita intensity scale. The tornadoes resulted in 41 deaths and
over 260 injuries, as well as widespread property damage in Volusia,
Orange, Seminole, and Osceola Counties. SPC issued tornado watches
several hours before the storms, and Melbourne Forecast Office issued
tornado warnings with an average lead time of 15 minutes.
Hall
County, Georgia Tornado of March 20.
In the predawn hours of March 20, a tornado rapidly developed in
western portions of Hall County Georgia. The tornado quickly moved
11 miles to the north-northeast, across northern Hall County and
dissipating in southern White County. The tornado killed 12 people,
11 in mobile homes and one in a vehicle. Over 170 injuries were
reported, and over 150 permanent and mobile homes were destroyed
or damaged.
Southeastern U.S. Tornadoes of April 8-9.
During the afternoon of April 8, severe thunderstorms developed
over Mississippi, Arkansas, and Southwestern Tennessee. As the storms
swept through Alabama and western Georgia that evening and night,
the storms produced at least 9 tornadoes. The tornadoes resulted
in 36 fatalities and 273 injuries. One of these tornadoes, which
struck Tuscaloosa and Jefferson Counties Alabama, was rated F5 on
the Fujita scale and destroyed over 1,100 permanent homes. Local
offices and national centers provided advance notification of the
event, with over 300 county warnings issued as the thunderstorms
moved through.
Arkansas/Tennessee Tornadoes of April 16.
On the early morning of April 16, a line of strong thunderstorms
moved through eastern Arkansas and extreme western Tennessee. These
storms produced killer tornadoes in Mississippi County, Arkansas
and Dyer County, Tennessee. Later in the day, the same system produced
several supercells over middle Tennessee. Strong to violent tornadoes
were reported in Davidson and Wayne Counties in Tennessee. Five
fatalities and numerous injuries were reported, along with extensive
damage including the downtown Nashville vicinity. None of the fatalities
occurred in Nashville. All of the significant tornadoes were preceded
by warnings with lead times of at least 20 minutes.
Oklahoma Tornadoes of Oct.
4.
At least 20 tornadoes cut a swath
of destruction through parts of Oklahoma on Oct. 4, breaking a record
for the most tornadoes ever reported in a single day in a single
state during the month of October since records began in 1950. Figures
indicate 13 tornadoes touched down in western and central Oklahoma,
and seven in other parts of the state. The number of confirmed tornadoes
in Oklahoma eclipsed the previous mark for October tornado outbreaks
set in 1996, when 18 twisters tore through sections of Florida.
As a result of accurate and timely weather warnings from local NWS
forecast offices, no lives were lost during this October outbreak.
Wildfires in Florida and
Texas. By mid July, wildfires raging since late May in
Florida had consumed some 490,000 acres of land and destroyed at
least 370 structures. Wildfires in Texas burned 143,000 acres in
May-June, while the severe drought caused more than $2 billion in
damage to agriculture, according to state officials. For the year,
wildfires across the southern U.S. burned 1.3 million acres, four
times the acreage burned in 1997. The NWS deployed a team of fire
weather meteorologists to Florida to aid in providing the most accurate
and timely weather information to help manage the fires and keep
firefighters safe.
Summer Heat Wave and Drought.
Spring and summer heat and drought caused massive wildfire
outbreaks in Florida and damage to crops from the southern Plains
to the Southeast. April-June was the driest such period in 104 years
of record in Florida, Texas, Louisiana, and New Mexico. May-June
was the warmest such period on record in Florida, Texas, Louisiana,
and Arkansas. The total drought and heat costs exceeded an estimated
$6 billion in damage/costs and resulted in at least 200 deaths (Source:
Local NWS Offices).
Summer-autumn drought from the mid-Atlantic
to Tennessee Valley caused crop losses, increased wildfire risk,
and threatened water supplies. July-November rainfall was the lowest
since 1930 in Washington, D.C., and Baltimore. In addition, Tennessee,
Maryland, and Virginia posted their second, third, and fourth driest
autumns in 104 years of record, respectively.
Flooding throughout Texas
and other areas. Tropical Storms Charley and Frances, along
with several other wet weather systems, brought heavy rains to Texas
from August to November, ending drought over much of the state,
but causing at least 42 deaths from several rounds of severe flooding.
Tropical Storm Charley caused 9 deaths in Texas. Del Rio, Texas,
recorded its wettest day ever on August 23 with 17.03 inches of
rain from Charley's remains. During the previous 8 1/2 months, Del
Rio had measured just 2.89 inches. Frances made landfall on the
Texas coast on September 11, bringing a five-foot storm surge and
over two feet of rain. Another weather system brought over a foot
of rain to southeast Texas on Oct. 17-18, causing major flooding
and at least 29 deaths, predominantly motorists driving onto flooded
roads. Raging floodwaters swept away or destroyed dozens of homes.
San Antonio tallied 18.07 inches of rain in October, its wettest
month ever, including 11.26 inches on Oct. 17, the city's wettest
day ever. More than 10 inches of rain on south-central Kansas during
Oct. 30 - Nov. 1 caused thousands of residents to seek shelter.
2. La Niña:
This winter we will not see another El Niño but another climate
phase called La Niña. La Niña tends to bring nearly
opposite effects of El Niño to the United States -- wetter
than normal conditions across the Pacific Northwest and drier and
warmer than normal conditions across much of the southern tier of
the country. The NWS Climate Prediction Center forecasts indicate
the cold episode (La Niña) will likely continue through the
1998-99 winter.
3. Interactive Computer Systems
Multiply the Benefits of Modernized Weather Services:
In April 1998, Commerce Secretary William M. Daley gave the go ahead
on the contract for a full production and installation of interactive
weather computer and communications systems that will help provide
better weather- and flood-related services to protect life and property.
In total, 152 Advanced Weather Interactive Processing Systems (AWIPS)
will be installed nationwide by the end of FY 1999. AWIPS will help
NWS forecasters take full advantage of the many modern technologies
that the NWS has added during its decade-long modernization and
restructuring.
4. New Supercomputer Will
Improve Weather, Climate and Flood Forecasts. In October
1998, the NWS awarded a four-year contract to lease a new supercomputer
that will significantly improve its weather, flood and climate forecasts
for the country from International Business Machines (IBM). The
new high-performance Class VIII computing system will use a highly
parallel computer architecture to immediately provide a significant
increase in computational capacity and will allow the NWS to operate
more sophisticated models of the atmosphere and oceans to improve
weather, flood and climate forecasts for the country.
5. Dial-A-Buoy Service Launched:
A new service called Dial-A-Buoy lets mariners obtain the latest
coastal and offshore weather observations from the NWS by telephone.
Dial-A-Buoy provides wind and wave measurements taken within the
last hour at 65 buoy and 54 Coastal-Marine Automated Network stations
located in coastal waters around the United States and in the Great
Lakes. A phone line at the National Data Buoy Center at Stennis
Space Center, Miss., allows callers to enter a combination of touch
tone keys and get current observations which also are posted on
the Center's Internet site http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov.
6. Potentially Life-Saving
Radio Network Grows: With the installation
of 26 new transmitters, the Voice of the National Weather Service,
the NOAA Weather Radio network, expanded this year to a total of
481 stations located in all 50 states, adjacent coastal waters,
Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and U.S. Pacific Territories.
The weather radio broadcasts up-to-the-minute NWS forecasts and
warnings 24 hours a day. The newest models can be set to activate
when severe weather strikes -- even when you are asleep!
7. Modernization Improves
Forecasts: The NWS team's goal is to provide the American
public with a "no surprise" National Weather Service. The nearly
completed $4.5 billion modernization continues to help us meet that
goal. Recent severe weather verification statistics indicate that
this goal is well within reach. For example, lead time warnings
for flash floods improved from 22 minutes in 1993 to 52 minutes
in 1998. While accuracy for flash flood predictions increased from
71 percent to 83 percent. Also, lead time for tornado warnings nearly
doubled from six minutes in 1993 to 11 minutes in 1998. During those
five years, tornado warning accuracy increased from 43 percent to
67 percent. The NWS has set goals to continue improving services
into the next millennium to keep the public safe and demonstrate
the potentially life-saving value of tax dollars for weather services.
The NWS continues to strive for greater warning lead times and accuracy
not only for tornado and flash floods, but also for severe thunderstorms,
temperature forecasts, snowfall amounts, precipitation forecasts
and landfall for hurricanes.
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