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000 FXUS63 KICT 212259 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 559 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2008 .AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS THE CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL VORTICITY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN KANSAS. AFTER THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...WE SHOULD SEE THE 700-600 MB FLOW START TO VEER OUT AND POSSIBLY TRIGGER MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO FESTER SOMETIME AFTER 04Z AND MAY LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK. WE MAY GO AHEAD AND MENTION SOME VCSH IN THE RSL TAF AROUND 04Z...BUT WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION ANYTHING AT THE SLN TAF SITE AT THIS POINT. WE ARE ALSO PLANNING ON MENTIONING SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES (3-5SM) IN THE CNU TAF SITE AFTER 09Z...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE FAIRLY WELL MIXED COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THE LEE SIDE TROF IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE TOMORROW WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE SOUTH WINDS TO KICK IN A LITTLE MORE ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS AREA COULD HAVE SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. COX && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2008/ DISCUSSION... TONIGHT-MON: FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE AREA. THE BETTER CHANCE MAY BE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION IS MAXIMIZED GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-70. WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE/ADVECTION AND MAINLY SOME DIFFLUENT FLOW...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE. ENOUGH ELEVATED CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. CHANCES SHOULD ALL BUT DIMINISH BY 1200 UTC...WITH TRAILING EDGE IN FAR NE SECTIONS JUST AFTER 1200 UTC. DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW DECENT RECOVERY...BUT 850MB TMPS BY MOST MODELS AND RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST STAYING AT OR BELOW MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS FOR MAXES. TUE-WED: WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MAKE FORAY INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS ON WED WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION PER GOING FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN TRICKY WITH COMBO OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS...RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND FRONT ON WED. CONTINUE TO TREND ON COOL SIDE OF MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS AND CLOSER TO 850MB MIXDOWN TEMPERATURES. THU-SUN: EARLY IN PERIOD...NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH AREA PRETTY DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGE. SOME CONCERN ABOUT AMOUNT OF CIRRUS...GIVEN A BIT LOWER SUN ANGLE AND POSSIBLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DWINDLES FOR THE WEEKEND AS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN LOW LEVEL FEATURES BECOME EVIDENT BETWEEN 0000 UTC EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL/12 UTC GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL. EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT...IN BROAD WEST- SOUTH WEST FLOW ALOFT...WHILE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL DIGS SIGNIFICANT TROUGH ON WEST COAST KEEPING UPPER RIDGE AND LEE TROUGH GOING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN BOTH CASES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP MINIMUMS ABOVE NORMAL. MAXES COULD BE TRICKY. -HOWERTON PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2008/ AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL...KSLN...KHUT...KICT...KCNU. GUSTY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON...DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK 850 TO 700MB CONVERGENCE. BILLINGS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 62 83 65 84 / 10 10 10 10 HUTCHINSON 62 84 64 84 / 10 10 10 10 NEWTON 61 82 64 83 / 10 10 10 10 ELDORADO 61 82 63 82 / 10 10 10 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 63 84 64 84 / 10 10 10 10 RUSSELL 62 83 63 85 / 20 10 10 20 GREAT BEND 61 83 63 84 / 20 10 10 20 SALINA 63 84 64 85 / 20 20 10 10 MCPHERSON 62 84 64 84 / 10 10 10 10 COFFEYVILLE 62 84 62 85 / 10 10 10 0 CHANUTE 60 82 62 84 / 10 10 10 10 IOLA 60 82 62 84 / 10 10 10 10 PARSONS-KPPF 61 83 62 85 / 10 10 10 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
