NOAA's National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Moderate Drought Develops
in Parts of Western Wisconsin

Updated on Thursday, September 18, 2008 - Jeff Boyne
Next Scheduled Update: Friday, September 26, 2008

Daily Monitoring of Drought Impacts & Outlooks

From September 2nd through September 16th, much of the rain associated with the remnants of two Atlantic hurricanes (Gustav and Ike) and an Eastern Pacific Topical Storm (Lowell) moved just southeast of the abnormally dry (D0) and moderate drought (D1) areas of southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and western Wisconsin.  In our area, the heaviest rain fell across southeast Clayton County in northeast Iowa and southern and eastern portions of Grant County in southwest Wisconsin.  Some rainfall totals included:  Platteville, WI - 3.38"; Cuba City 2NW, WI - 3.33"; Guttenberg, IA - 2.23"; and Strawberry Point - 2.03".  Meanwhile the remainder of our forecast area saw between a 0.50 and 1.50 inches of precipitation.  The map below provides more detail on where this precipitation fell.

While this rain was beneficial, it did little to reduce the growing precipitation deficits across this region. Since mid June, the precipitation deficits in southeast Minnesota have grown into the 5 to 7 inch range.  These precipitation deficits have resulted in a moderate drought (D1). 

In western Wisconsin and parts of northeast Iowa, the precipitation deficits have been mainly growing since mid to late July.  During this time frame, precipitation deficits have grown into the 3 to 7 inch range.  This has resulted in a moderate drought (D1) across much of west central and north central Wisconsin; and abnormally dry (D0) across the remainder of western Wisconsin and parts of northeast Iowa.

This recent dryness is mainly affecting grass and other shallow rooted plants.  In addition, many crops (such as corn and soy beans) are suffering, because their roots are much shallower than normal.  This is due to the excessive wet soils during the earlier part of the growing season.  These plants during their early development had adequate water to grow so their roots stayed near the surface.  As the quick dryness set in, these roots were not able to grow down fast enough to tap into the moisture further down in the soil.  This has affected the development of corn cobs and the filling of soy bean pods.  Some yield losses have been noted in the agricultural reports during the past month.  In addition, some fruit has been maturing smaller than normal due to this dryness too.

In the September 16th release of the U.S. Drought Monitor, severe (D2) drought existed across a small part of north central Minnesota.  Moderate drought (D1) existed from southeast South Dakota across southern Minnesota, the northern half of Wisconsin, and western Upper Michigan.  In addition, moderate drought was found in the Minnesota Arrowhead.  Abnormally dry (D0) surrounds the moderate drought (D1) area in southeast South Dakota, Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin.  In addition, abnormally dry conditions (D0) can be found in eastern Nebraska, western Iowa, northeast Indiana, and Ohio.

Local Area Affected:

State and Local Actions:

No known actions are currently taking place.

Climatological Summary:

Southeast Minnesota...

Since mid June 2008, most locations in southeast Minnesota have seen between six and eight inches of precipitation.  These totals are five to seven inches below normal.  Normally this area receives around 13 inches of precipitation from mid June through mid September.  Due to these precipitation deficits, moderate drought conditions (D1) continue to be found across all or parts of Dodge, Fillmore, Houston, Mower, Olmsted, Wabasha, and Winona counties.

The table below shows how much precipitation has fallen and precipitation deficits across southeast Minnesota from June 15 through September 16, 2008.

Northeast Iowa & Western Wisconsin...

Since mid July 2008, most locations in western Wisconsin and parts of northeast Iowa have seen between two and five inches of precipitation. These totals are three to seven inches below normal. Normally this area receives around eight inches of precipitation from mid July through mid September.  Due to these precipitation deficits, moderate drought (D1) exists across all or parts of Buffalo, Clark, Jackson, La Crosse, Monroe, Taylor, and Trempealeau counties in western Wisconsin.  Abnormally dry conditions (D0) exist across all or parts of Adams, Crawford, Juneau, Richland, and Vernon counties in western Wisconsin; and Allamakee, Mitchell, Howard, and Winneshiek counties in northeast Iowa.

The table below shows how much precipitation has fallen and precipitation deficits across parts of northeast Iowa and western Wisconsin from July 20 through September 16, 2008.

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a weekly collaborative effort between a number of federal agencies including NOAA/NWS, U.S. Department of Agriculture and the National Drought Mitigation Center. Details and explanations of the Drought Monitor can found at the web site:

http://www.drought.unl.edu/
dm/monitor.html

The categories of drought are defined as follows:

Abnormally Dry (D0) - Going into drought: short-term dryness slowing planting, growth of crops or pastures; fire risk above average. Coming out of drought: some lingering water deficits; pastures or crops not fully recovered.

Moderate Drought (D1) - Some damage to crops, pastures; fire risk high; streams, reservoirs, or wells low, some water shortages developing or imminent, voluntary water use restrictions requested.

Severe Drought (D2) - Crop or pasture losses likely; fire risk very high; water shortages common; water restrictions imposed.

Extreme Drought (D3) - Major crop/pasture losses; extreme fire danger; widespread water shortages or restrictions.

Exceptional Drought (D4) - Exceptional and widespread crop/pasture losses; exceptional fire risk; shortages of water in reservoirs, streams, and wells, creating water emergencies.

As of September 16th, the Midwestern Regional Climate Center (MRCC) indicated that the soil moisture in the top five feet ranged from 1.0 to 3.5 inches below normal from southwest Iowa northeast into the Minnesota arrowhead and Upper Michigan.   The soils were the driest across southeast Minnesota and west central Wisconsin where the soils were 3.0 to 3.5 inches below normal. The image below is from the MRCC.

Current Soil Moisture Deviation as of September 16, 2008
(Depth 0-72 inches)

Additional information about soil moisture conditions can be found either at the Midwestern Regional Climate Center (MRCC) at:

http://mcc.sws.uiuc.edu/
cliwatch/drought/moisture.htm

or at the NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Web Site at:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/soilmst/w.shtml

Additional information about ground levels can be found either at the USGS Ground-Water Climate Response Network at:

http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov/

Below normal precipitation since mid summer has caused river levels to slowly fall. Currently the lowest flows are reported along the Black River in north central and west central Wisconsin; and along the South Fork of the Zumbro River in southeast Minnesota.

Listed below are some current (September 16th) river and stream flows versus in cubic feet per second (cfs) compared to percentiles of historical daily stream flow for the day of the year. These are for selected rivers and streams in our service area with long periods (over 30 years) of record as measured by the United States Geological Survey (USGS).

Hourly and forecast river stages out to 90 days can be found at the National Weather Service's (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) web page:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/
index.php?wfo=arx

Additional Current stream and river stages may be viewed at the following USGS Web Site:

http://water.usgs.gov/
waterwatch/

Minnesota:

Wisconsin:

On September 17th, the Wisconsin Field Office of USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reported that some light frost was evident the early part of last week in northwestern Wisconsin.   Farmers are hoping for more heat and more time before a killing frost arrives.   While some areas of the state received much needed rains last week, other counties remained dry.   One reporter from south central Wisconsin reported saturating rains last week, slowing down all fieldwork.   However, most regions of the state continue to look for more moisture.

From September 7th through September 14th, the average high temperatures ranged from 68 to 72 degrees and the average low temperatures ranging from 49 to 57 degrees.   Precipitation totals ranged from 0.15 inches in La Crosse to 1.92 inches in Milwaukee.   Soil moisture conditions were at 13 percent very short, 49 percent short, 33 percent adequate, and 5 percent surplus.  There was an average of 5.0 days suitable for fieldwork last week.

Corn was progressing with dough stage at 84 percent complete.  Corn in dent was at 48 percent complete with maturity at 8 percent complete.  Crop condition was reported as 7 percent very poor, 15 percent poor, 32 percent fair, 39 percent good, and 7 percent excellent.  Corn silage harvest was in full swing with reports at 16 percent complete.

Soybeans were maturing with leaf drop noticeable this past week.  Soybeans turning color was 65 percent complete with 27 percent dropping leaves.  Conditions were reported at 7 percent very poor, 15 percent poor, 30 percent fair, 39 percent good, and 9 percent excellent

Third crop hay harvest was wrapping up with reports of 92 percent complete.  Fourth crop harvest was at 31 percent complete.  One reporter in East Central Wisconsin reported alfalfa growth at a complete standstill due to lack of rain. 

Pastures greened up in some areas with the recent rains.  Conditions were reported at 11 percent very poor, 31 percent poor, 34 percent fair, 22 percent good, and 2 percent excellent.

Snap bean and sweet corn harvest was nearly complete.  Kidney beans were being harvested with a good crop projected.  Potato harvest was just starting in one west central Wisconsin county, while late potato harvest was underway in the central part of the state. 

The following were quotes from Farm Reporters and County Agriculture Agents:

Clark County - The corn crop was continued to progress.  It is mostly in the dough stage or early dent.  Corn silage harvest is beginning.  At a couple of burn down days, moistures were in the high 60's to low 70's percent total plant moisture.  I have seen a large number of northern and western corn root worm beetles on corn plants this fall.  Soybeans are maturing with leaf drop being noticeable this week.  Soybean aphids are still found in the fields below thresholds.  Some third crop hay is being made between showers.  The weather has been dry in August which has reduced yields.

In the table below, there is a summary of the top soil moisture conditions across Minnesota and Wisconsin from the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) summary.

Soil moisture supply measures how much moisture is present in cropland top soil during the week. Soil moisture is reported as a percentage. The categories very short, short, adequate and surplus must add up to 100%.

Very Short - Soil moisture supplies are significantly less than what is required for normal plant development. Growth has been stopped, or nearly so, and plants are showing visible signs of moisture stress. Under these conditions, plants will quickly suffer irreparable damage.

Short - Soil dry.  Seed germination and/or normal crop growth and development would be curtailed.

Adequate - Soil moist.  Seed germination and/or crop growth and development would be normal or unhindered.

Surplus - Soil wet.  Fields may be muddy and will generally be unable to absorb additional moisture.  Young developing crops may be yellowing from excess moisture.

The map below lists the Agricultural Districts in southeast Minnesota, western Wisconsin, and northeast Iowa.

For additional information on agriculture impacts may be viewed at the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service NASS Web Site:

http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications
/State_Crop_Progress_and_Condition/index.asp

As of the morning of September 16th, moderate fire danger was reported across central and north central Wisconsin.  Meanwhile low fire danger was reported across southeast Minnesota, and in Taylor County in north central Wisconsin. 

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) remained moderate across southeast Minnesota; northeast Iowa; and western Wisconsin.

With several days of dry and unseasonably warm weather, the 100-and 1000-hour dead fuel moisture has decreased into the 16 to 20 percent range across much of southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and western Wisconsin.  The 100-hour dead fuel moistures are more susceptible to short term dryness than the 1000-hour dead fuel moistures as a result there is more day to day variability associated with them.

As a reminder, citizens should always check with local officials in their area before undertaking any outside burning.  Citizens are liable for damages and suppression costs of any wildfire they may start.

For updated DNR Fire Conditions consult the following Web Sites:

In Minnesota:

http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/
forestry/fire/index.html

In Wisconsin:

http://dnr.wi.gov/forestry/fire/
fire_danger/wdnr-fire_report.asp

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) is a drought index that is specifically related to fire potential. The KDBI is broken into four categories which indicate the susceptibility of ground fuels to fire danger. Below are the four categories and a brief description of each.

KBDI and Dead Fuel Moisture data can be found on the Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS) web site at:

http://www.wfas.us/content/view/23/38/

The seasonal outlook for October through December calls above normal temperatures; and equal chances for above, below, and near normal precipitation across the Upper Mississippi River Valley.

For updated temperature and precipitation probabilities consult the following Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Web Sites:

8 to 14 Day Outlook:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
products/predictions/814day/

30 Day Outlook:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
/products/predictions/30day/

90 Day Outlook:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
/products/predictions/long_range/
seasonal.php?lead=01

If you have any questions or comments about this drought information please contact:

Jeffrey Boyne
Climate Services Focal Point
National Weather Service
La Crosse, WI 54601-3038

Telephone: 608-784-8275
E-mail: Jeff.Boyne@noaa.gov

Additional drought information for Minnesota can be found at the following link:

http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/
drought_situation_report_2006.htm

Other Contacts:

For Local Agricultural Impacts:

http://www.csrees.usda.gov/Extension/

For state climate impacts:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/aasc.html