[top]
000
FXUS63 KICT 200155
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
855 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST...PRIMARILY TO DECREASE
CLOUDINESS AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER THE CWFA. CONTINUING TO
WATCH FOR LIGHT FOG POTENTIAL IN PRIMARILY SE KS FOR EARLY SAT
MORNING WHERE GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RESIDES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
AVIATION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE: [KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU]
VFR CIGS & VSBYS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. THE ONLY
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS (5SM BR) WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE 12Z-14Z
PERIOD AT KCNU WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY GREATER.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE FOG CHANCES
TONIGHT AND THE TIMING OF THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.
TONIGHT:
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING THE DEWPOINTS HOLDING FAIRLY
STEADY AGAIN TODAY...DUE TO LATENT HEAT EFFECTS FROM THE COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF SOIL MOISTURE. WE ANTICIPATE THESE DEWPOINTS TO BE FAIRLY
STEADY AGAIN TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WHICH WILL FAVOR MORE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT
MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE VISIBILITY WOULD DROP TO AROUND 1 MILE IN A FEW
SPOTS.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT:
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVES INTO
MONTANA. AS A RESULT...THE LEE SIDE SURFACE TROF WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME DUE TO THE MID
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS (700-600MB) REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA WITH LITTLE
IF ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO FOCUS ON. WE DID LOWER TEMPERATURES
A COUPLE OF DEGREES AGAIN DUE TO THE LATENT HEAT EFFECTS.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT:
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROF
ROTATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE MAY HELP MOVE THE (700-600MB) SHEAR AXIS A LITTLE FURTHER
EAST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE MODELS ARE EVEN
SHOWING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT TAKING PLACE IN THE
305-310K LAYER WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO. THE GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF/UKMET IN DEVELOPING
THIS CONVECTION...BUT THE GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT.
THEREFORE...WE ARE LEANING TOWARDS THAT SOLUTION AND CARRYING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY-FRIDAY:
AFTER A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL
KANSAS MONDAY...IT APPEARS LIKE ANOTHER GOOD START TO THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK WITH THE LEE TROF STILL IN PLACE WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
STARTING TO PICK UP TO SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE A BIT WARMER...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 80S. DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THE MAIN QUESTION
WILL BE HOW MUCH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE LATEST UKMET/ECMWF ARE MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAN THE
GFS. AS A RESULT...THE UKMET/ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
OVER NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE GFS PUSHES THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WE ARE A LITTLE MORE
CONFIDENT IN THE ECMWF/UKMET/HPC SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WHICH KEEP THE
BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER NORTHERN KANSAS. WE ARE ALSO KEEPING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS POINT.
COX
AVIATION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE...KRSL..KSLN...KHUT...KICT...KCNU.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH ALL OF THE TAF LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON FOR SITES KICT AND KHUT. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER
KRSL AND KSLN WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER KCNU ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF OKLAHOMA. THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL
LOCATIONS.
BILLINGS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 56 80 59 80 / 0 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 52 80 58 80 / 10 10 10 20
NEWTON 56 79 58 79 / 0 10 10 10
ELDORADO 56 78 57 80 / 0 0 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 56 81 58 80 / 0 0 10 10
RUSSELL 56 82 58 80 / 10 10 10 30
GREAT BEND 56 82 57 80 / 10 10 10 30
SALINA 55 81 58 81 / 10 10 10 20
MCPHERSON 55 80 57 80 / 10 10 10 20
COFFEYVILLE 58 80 57 81 / 0 0 10 10
CHANUTE 57 80 57 80 / 0 0 10 10
IOLA 57 80 58 80 / 0 0 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 57 80 57 81 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS63 KTOP 200001
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
701 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 00 UTC AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE FEW CU AROUND WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT WINDS...LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CAUSE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AT
OR AROUND THE TAF SITES AFTER 10Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PATCHY DENSE
FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE WILL OCCUR AT BOTH KTOP AND KMHK. THE
PATCHY GROUND FOG SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. MAY SEE
BOUNDARY LAYER CU DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY...WITH
BASES OF 4,000 TO 5,000 FEET.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
DISCUSSION...
A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE GENERATED CU FIELD
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WHILE TEMPS CONTINUE THEIR SLOW CLIMB
TOWARDS 80. BROAD UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR
AREA.
EXPECT A NIGHT SIMILAR TO NIGHT PAST AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 50S AND
LIGHT SE WINDS CONTINUE. THINK WILL ONCE AGAIN COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME
REDUCTIONS TO VISBY INTO THE MVFR / 3SM RANGE AND WILL HANDLE THIS
IN TAF SITES BUT LEAVE OUT OF GRIDS. DEPARTING TROF LEAVES WEAK
UPPER RIDGING OVERHEAD FOR TOMORROW...SO DESPITE SOME INSTABILITY
ABOVE THE WEAK CAP...THINK IT WILL REMAIN AS SUCH AND HAVE KEPT
FORECAST DRY. MIXING TO AROUND 850/800MB SHOULD BRING HIGHS AGAIN
TO RIGHT AROUND 80.
67
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A STEADY INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS MAY
KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER FOR SUNDAY. DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
ENSUE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE OFF THE WEST COAST ROTATES NORTHEAST.
MOISTURE IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY AT LOW LEVELS...AND Q-G
FORCING REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
CHANCE RANGE...WITH HIGHER COVERAGE EXPECTED IN THE BETTER WAA IN
THE NORTHEAST. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN NEAR SUNRISE WITH...AND
GOING TREND OF TAPERING PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE DAY MONDAY WILL BE
KEPT. THE WAA SHOULD AGAIN PUSH HIGHS TO AROUND 80.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARISES BY EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT UPPER WAVE...WITH RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL AGREEMENT ALREADY LACKING BY MONDAY EVENING. IT
STILL APPEARS A BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA AROUND
WEDNESDAY AS THE WAVE MAKES PROGRESS INTO CANADA. TIMING OF THE
FRONT IS UNCERTAIN...AND IT MAY REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. IT WILL ALSO BE RATHER WEAK AND FLOW TO THE SOUTH WILL BE
EASTERLY AND LIMIT MOISTURE INFLUX. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS FOR A FEW
PERIODS AROUND THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
SIMILAR TO THOSE OF RECENT DAYS.
65
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
GARGAN
[top]
000
FXUS63 KGLD 192323
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
523 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
.DISCUSSION...UPPER FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY A RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES/PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY BRINGING ZONAL AND THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A PERSISTENT SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH MONDAY.
RIDGING ALOFT AND RESULTING SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP POPS NIL THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...THE NAM
IS ADVERTISING A SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS SO
PLAN TO KEEP IT IN THE GRIDS BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RAISE
POPS HIGHER.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY
ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY WINDS SHOULD GET BREEZY AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
850MB TEMPERATURES ARE STEADY IN THE LOWER 20S THROUGH SUNDAY AND
THEN WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S ON MONDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH WARMING INTO THE MID 80S ON MONDAY. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S TO THE
MID 50S AND A FEW UPPER 50S MONDAY NIGHT.
IN THE EXTENDED...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR NORTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN MOVE EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY.
DYNAMICS SHOULD START IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
SYSTEM EXITS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS IS DUE TO SOME
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S AND THEN COOL
DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY SO THAT HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S
THROUGH FRIDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S WILL COOL TO THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
FS
&&
.AVIATION...
520 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2008
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THROUGH 06Z MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS FROM
CONVECTION MOVING TOWARD THE KMCK SITE PER DISTANCE/SPEED TOOL AND
NAM 700-300 MOISTURE...OTHERWISE PERHAPS A FEW CIRRUS. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10-12KTS BY 18Z SATURDAY AS LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH BY 00Z SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO. SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE IN MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT THE KGLD TAF
SITE LATE IN THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...SOME
CU AT 7-9K FT ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE TIMES OF PEAK HEATING.
DDT
&&
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO GOODLAND
000
FXUS63 KICT 192315
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
615 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE: [KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU]
VFR CIGS & VSBYS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. THE ONLY
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS (5SM BR) WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE 12Z-14Z
PERIOD AT KCNU WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY GREATER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE FOG CHANCES
TONIGHT AND THE TIMING OF THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.
TONIGHT:
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING THE DEWPOINTS HOLDING FAIRLY
STEADY AGAIN TODAY...DUE TO LATENT HEAT EFFECTS FROM THE COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF SOIL MOISTURE. WE ANTICIPATE THESE DEWPOINTS TO BE FAIRLY
STEADY AGAIN TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WHICH WILL FAVOR MORE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT
MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE VISIBILITY WOULD DROP TO AROUND 1 MILE IN A FEW
SPOTS.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT:
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVES INTO
MONTANA. AS A RESULT...THE LEE SIDE SURFACE TROF WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME DUE TO THE MID
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS (700-600MB) REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA WITH LITTLE
IF ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO FOCUS ON. WE DID LOWER TEMPERATURES
A COUPLE OF DEGREES AGAIN DUE TO THE LATENT HEAT EFFECTS.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT:
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROF
ROTATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE MAY HELP MOVE THE (700-600MB) SHEAR AXIS A LITTLE FURTHER
EAST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE MODELS ARE EVEN
SHOWING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT TAKING PLACE IN THE
305-310K LAYER WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO. THE GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF/UKMET IN DEVELOPING
THIS CONVECTION...BUT THE GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT.
THEREFORE...WE ARE LEANING TOWARDS THAT SOLUTION AND CARRYING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY-FRIDAY:
AFTER A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL
KANSAS MONDAY...IT APPEARS LIKE ANOTHER GOOD START TO THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK WITH THE LEE TROF STILL IN PLACE WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
STARTING TO PICK UP TO SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE A BIT WARMER...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 80S. DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THE MAIN QUESTION
WILL BE HOW MUCH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE LATEST UKMET/ECMWF ARE MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAN THE
GFS. AS A RESULT...THE UKMET/ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
OVER NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE GFS PUSHES THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WE ARE A LITTLE MORE
CONFIDENT IN THE ECMWF/UKMET/HPC SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WHICH KEEP THE
BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER NORTHERN KANSAS. WE ARE ALSO KEEPING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS POINT.
COX
AVIATION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE...KRSL..KSLN...KHUT...KICT...KCNU.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH ALL OF THE TAF LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON FOR SITES KICT AND KHUT. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER
KRSL AND KSLN WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER KCNU ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF OKLAHOMA. THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL
LOCATIONS.
BILLINGS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 56 80 59 80 / 0 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 52 80 58 80 / 10 10 10 20
NEWTON 56 79 58 79 / 0 10 10 10
ELDORADO 56 78 57 80 / 0 0 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 56 81 58 80 / 0 0 10 10
RUSSELL 56 82 58 80 / 10 10 10 30
GREAT BEND 56 82 57 80 / 10 10 10 30
SALINA 55 81 58 81 / 10 10 10 20
MCPHERSON 55 80 57 80 / 10 10 10 20
COFFEYVILLE 58 80 57 81 / 0 0 10 10
CHANUTE 57 80 57 80 / 0 0 10 10
IOLA 57 80 58 80 / 0 0 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 57 80 57 81 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 192037
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
237 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...UPPER FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY A RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES/PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY BRINGING ZONAL AND THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A PERSISTENT SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH MONDAY.
RIDGING ALOFT AND RESULTING SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP POPS NIL THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...THE NAM
IS ADVERTISING A SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS SO
PLAN TO KEEP IT IN THE GRIDS BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RAISE
POPS HIGHER.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY
ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY WINDS SHOULD GET BREEZY AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
850MB TEMPERATURES ARE STEADY IN THE LOWER 20S THROUGH SUNDAY AND
THEN WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S ON MONDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH WARMING INTO THE MID 80S ON MONDAY. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S TO THE
MID 50S AND A FEW UPPER 50S MONDAY NIGHT.
IN THE EXTENDED...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR NORTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN MOVE EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY.
DYNAMICS SHOULD START IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
SYSTEM EXITS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS IS DUE TO SOME
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S AND THEN COOL
DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY SO THAT HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S
THROUGH FRIDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S WILL COOL TO THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
FS
&&
.AVIATION...
1146 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2008
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JRM
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO GOODLAND
000
FXUS63 KTOP 192025
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
325 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE GENERATED CU FIELD
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WHILE TEMPS CONTINUE THEIR SLOW CLIMB
TOWARDS 80. BROAD UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR
AREA.
EXPECT A NIGHT SIMILAR TO NIGHT PAST AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 50S AND
LIGHT SE WINDS CONTINUE. THINK WILL ONCE AGAIN COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME
REDUCTIONS TO VISBY INTO THE MVFR / 3SM RANGE AND WILL HANDLE THIS
IN TAF SITES BUT LEAVE OUT OF GRIDS. DEPARTING TROF LEAVES WEAK
UPPER RIDGING OVERHEAD FOR TOMORROW...SO DESPITE SOME INSTABILITY
ABOVE THE WEAK CAP...THINK IT WILL REMAIN AS SUCH AND HAVE KEPT
FORECAST DRY. MIXING TO AROUND 850/800MB SHOULD BRING HIGHS AGAIN
TO RIGHT AROUND 80. 67
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A STEADY INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS MAY
KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER FOR SUNDAY. DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
ENSUE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE OFF THE WEST COAST ROTATES NORTHEAST.
MOISTURE IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY AT LOW LEVELS...AND Q-G
FORCING REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
CHANCE RANGE...WITH HIGHER COVERAGE EXPECTED IN THE BETTER WAA IN
THE NORTHEAST. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN NEAR SUNRISE WITH...AND
GOING TREND OF TAPERING PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE DAY MONDAY WILL BE
KEPT. THE WAA SHOULD AGAIN PUSH HIGHS TO AROUND 80.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARISES BY EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT UPPER WAVE...WITH RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL AGREEMENT ALREADY LACKING BY MONDAY EVENING. IT
STILL APPEARS A BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA AROUND
WEDNESDAY AS THE WAVE MAKES PROGRESS INTO CANADA. TIMING OF THE
FRONT IS UNCERTAIN...AND IT MAY REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. IT WILL ALSO BE RATHER WEAK AND FLOW TO THE SOUTH WILL BE
EASTERLY AND LIMIT MOISTURE INFLUX. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS FOR A FEW
PERIODS AROUND THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
SIMILAR TO THOSE OF RECENT DAYS. 65
&&
.AVIATION...
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS MAY GAIN SOME GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
AN UPPER SYSTEM IN NEBRASKA TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING
BEST MIXING. EXPECT GUSTS TO DIMINISH LATE AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO ALSO DIMINISH...ALTHOUGH CALM WINDS NOT ANTICIPATED.
AFTERNOON CU FIELDS WILL ALSO DISSIPATE LATE DAY. HAVE INCLUDED
MVFR VISBY FOR SOME EARLY MORNING BR IN LOW SPOTS. 67
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS63 KDDC 192018
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
318 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CENTERS AROUND THE END OF THE 48 TO
60 HOUR PERIOD.
TONIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET TO AROUND 10 MPH. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO START FALLING EARLY, AND BOTTOM OUT NEAR LEVELS
THAT OCCURRED THIS MORNING. ON SATURDAY, EXPECT A LITTLE SLOWER
START TO DAY TIME HEATING AS THE INVERSION SHOULD BE STRONG. KEPT
WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT`S THOUGHT OF LOWER 80S FOR ALL CWA LOCALS, AND
HAVING SOUTH WINDS INCREASE BY 16Z INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE. A
LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL BE FORMING SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST,
ALLOWING SOUTH WINDS TO STAY UP SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 TO 20 KT
RANGE. MIN TEMPERATES SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD THEREFORE BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT. THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, GIVING A NICE WARM LOWER LAYER. AGAIN, HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE LEE
TROUGH APPROACHES.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS BREAK OUT TO OUR NORTH AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST AND EAST ZONES, SO WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANGE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN MY NORTH AND NORTHEAST ZONES, AND SCALED POPS
BACK TO UPPER TEENS IN THE DDC AND PTT AREAS, AND ALL THE WAY BACK
DOWN TO 10 POPS IN MY WESTERN CWA. DO NOT THINK ANY PLACE WILL
RECEIVE OVER 0.02-INCH OF RAIN.
THE MODELS ALL DIFFER ON THE SUNDAY SOLUTION, WITH ONLY THE NAM
BEING VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH MEASURABLE RAIN. HAVE LEANED TOWARD AND
TENDED TOWARD THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS.
DAYS 3-7...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAK SHIFTS TO THE NORTH.
THE MODELS ARE NOW KEEPING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL NORTH OF
OUR FCST AREA TUE/WED. ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON
ALONG A WEAK SFC TROUGH AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY ALONG A LEE TROUGH.
BUT THE Q-G DYNAMICS WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF OUR FCST AREA. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT WILL PROBABLY NOT EVEN MAKE IT INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. MON/TUE SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAYS WITH UPPER 80S LIKELY.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY SHOULD AT LEAST BE IN THE MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 54 83 57 83 / 0 0 0 30
GCK 52 82 57 82 / 0 0 0 20
EHA 51 81 55 83 / 10 10 10 20
LBL 54 82 56 83 / 0 0 0 20
HYS 54 82 57 81 / 0 0 0 40
P28 57 83 58 83 / 0 0 0 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FN12/24/24
000
FXUS63 KICT 192016
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
316 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE FOG CHANCES
TONIGHT AND THE TIMING OF THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.
TONIGHT:
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING THE DEWPOINTS HOLDING FAIRLY
STEADY AGAIN TODAY...DUE TO LATENT HEAT EFFECTS FROM THE COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF SOIL MOISTURE. WE ANTICIPATE THESE DEWPOINTS TO BE FAIRLY
STEADY AGAIN TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WHICH WILL FAVOR MORE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT
MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE VISIBILITY WOULD DROP TO AROUND 1 MILE IN A FEW
SPOTS.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT:
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVES INTO
MONTANA. AS A RESULT...THE LEE SIDE SURFACE TROF WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME DUE TO THE MID
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS (700-600MB) REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA WITH LITTLE
IF ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO FOCUS ON. WE DID LOWER TEMPERATURES
A COUPLE OF DEGREES AGAIN DUE TO THE LATENT HEAT EFFECTS.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT:
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROF
ROTATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE MAY HELP MOVE THE (700-600MB) SHEAR AXIS A LITTLE FURTHER
EAST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE MODELS ARE EVEN
SHOWING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT TAKING PLACE IN THE
305-310K LAYER WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO. THE GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF/UKMET IN DEVELOPING
THIS CONVECTION...BUT THE GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT.
THEREFORE...WE ARE LEANING TOWARDS THAT SOLUTION AND CARRYING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY-FRIDAY:
AFTER A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL
KANSAS MONDAY...IT APPEARS LIKE ANOTHER GOOD START TO THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK WITH THE LEE TROF STILL IN PLACE WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
STARTING TO PICK UP TO SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE A BIT WARMER...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 80S. DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THE MAIN QUESTION
WILL BE HOW MUCH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE LATEST UKMET/ECMWF ARE MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAN THE
GFS. AS A RESULT...THE UKMET/ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
OVER NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE GFS PUSHES THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WE ARE A LITTLE MORE
CONFIDENT IN THE ECMWF/UKMET/HPC SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WHICH KEEP THE
BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER NORTHERN KANSAS. WE ARE ALSO KEEPING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS POINT.
COX
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE...KRSL..KSLN...KHUT...KICT...KCNU.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH ALL OF THE TAF LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON FOR SITES KICT AND KHUT. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER
KRSL AND KSLN WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER KCNU ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF OKLAHOMA. THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL
LOCATIONS.
BILLINGS
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 56 79 59 80 / 0 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 52 79 58 80 / 10 10 10 20
NEWTON 56 78 58 79 / 0 10 10 10
ELDORADO 56 77 57 80 / 0 0 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 56 80 58 80 / 0 0 10 10
RUSSELL 56 81 58 80 / 10 10 10 30
GREAT BEND 56 81 57 80 / 10 10 10 30
SALINA 55 80 58 81 / 10 10 10 20
MCPHERSON 55 79 57 80 / 10 10 10 20
COFFEYVILLE 58 79 57 81 / 0 0 10 10
CHANUTE 57 79 57 80 / 0 0 10 10
IOLA 57 79 58 80 / 0 0 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 57 79 57 81 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 191747
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1147 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
325 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2008
THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH EAST AND BE REPLACED BY A BROAD TROUGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A COUPLE OF UPPER LOW CENTERS MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.
MODELS ARE NOW INCREASING THE POPS OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION AS
THE FIRST UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. INSTEAD OF GOING HOG WILD WITH THE POPS AND
QPF...HAVE MODERATED VALUES AND TRENDED UPWARDS WITH POPS ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL HAVE ALSO TRENDED
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD AS ADDITIONAL MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER ON SUNDAY. HAVE TRIMMED A FEW DEGREES OFF TEMPERATURES
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY FROM WHAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE ON SATURDAY.
THE NEXT POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SECOND MAIN TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
LEFT THINGS PRETTY MUCH INTACT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT ON AS THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT WAS ALREADY DEPICTED.
LOCKHART
&&
.AVIATION...
1146 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2008
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JRM
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 191734
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1234 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE...KRSL..KSLN...KHUT...KICT...KCNU.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH ALL OF THE TAF LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON FOR SITES KICT AND KHUT. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER
KRSL AND KSLN WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER KCNU ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF OKLAHOMA. THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL
LOCATIONS.
BILLINGS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS...KRSL...KSLN...KHUT...KICT...KCNU.
SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SCHRECK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPS TODAY INTO SAT...THEN SHOWER CHANCES
FOR SUN INTO MON AND AGAIN ON WED.
TODAY-SAT:
WEAK IMPULSE ACROSS EASTERN OK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO MO AS THE EARLY MORNING PROGRESSES. THIS LITTLE
IMPULSE WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY THROUGH SAT AS IT MAKES
SLOW PROGRESS UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE INTO MO. EARLIER MODEL RUNS
SUGGESTED THAT SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS IMPULSE COULD LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED SHRA AND POSSIBLY A
TSRA TO DEVELOP AS FAR WEST AS SOUTHEAST KS FOR FRI AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON SAT AFTERNOON. BUT CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ANY
CHANCE FROM THIS IMPULSE WILL STAY EAST OF THE AREA...WITH DRIER AIR
KEEPING THINGS DRY THIS FAR WEST...SO WILL REMOVE SMALL CHANCES FROM
SOUTHEAST KS WITH THIS IN MIND. WILL GO CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS BOTH DAYS AS PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST A LEANING
TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS.
SUN-MON:
UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN TO THE
AREA BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON SUN AS SHORTWAVE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO RETURN TO THE WESTERN HALF OF KS BY SUN
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS IMPULSE WILL STAY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS...BUT LIFT AHEAD OF THIS IMPULSE IN
THE 305-310 LAYER INCREASES ENOUGH ACROSS AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE
135 FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. THIS
LIFT ACTUALLY INCREASES IN DEPTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON MON
ACROSS CENTRAL KS...FOR A SOLID CHANCE POP...SO WILL INCREASE AND
EXTEND THIS POP INTO MON MORNING. GFS DOESNT SHOW ALOT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS LIFT BUT COOL AIR ALOFT AND 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 20 KTS SUGGEST AT LEAST A TSRA CHANCE.
TUE-THU:
A QUIET DAY EXPECTED ON TUES AS AREA WILL BE BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES. ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
WED. GFS AND TO A LESSOR EXTENT THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THIS WAVE WILL
PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO CEN KS FOR WED INTO THU. NOT ALOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE...AS IT BECOMES
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND POSSIBLY WASHES OUT BY THU BUT AT
LEAST A SMALL POP IS WARRANTED AS IT MOVES SOUTH.
KETCHAM
AVIATION...
06Z TAF ISSUANCE: [KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU]
ONLY ONE MINOR CHANGE FROM 00Z TAF ISSUANCE: TO INTRODUCE SCT050
TO KCNU...KICT AND KHUT TERMINALS EFFECTIVE 18Z-20Z WHERE CLOSER
TO LWR-DECK MOISTURE MIGRATING SLOWLY N TOWARD THESE AREAS. SOME
5-6SM BR POSSIBLE AT KCNU TOWARD 12Z BUT WITH WEAK UPR-DECK LOW
CONTINUING TO SPREAD AMPLE CIRROSTRATUS ~25,000 FEET N OVER MOST
OF KS HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT FOR TIME BEING. ~ES
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 81 58 83 61 / 0 0 10 10
HUTCHINSON 82 59 83 59 / 0 0 10 10
NEWTON 79 58 81 59 / 10 0 10 10
ELDORADO 79 56 79 58 / 10 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 82 57 82 59 / 10 0 10 10
RUSSELL 82 60 83 59 / 0 0 10 10
GREAT BEND 82 60 83 59 / 0 0 10 10
SALINA 83 58 85 58 / 0 0 10 10
MCPHERSON 82 58 83 58 / 0 0 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 81 57 81 59 / 10 10 10 10
CHANUTE 81 57 81 60 / 10 10 10 10
IOLA 80 56 80 59 / 10 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 82 57 82 59 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 191718
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1218 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS MAY GAIN SOME GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS AN
UPPER SYSTEM IN NEBRASKA TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING
BEST MIXING. EXPECT GUSTS TO DIMINISH LATE AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO ALSO DIMINISH...ALTHOUGH CALM WINDS NOT ANTICIPATED.
AFTERNOON CU FIELDS WILL ALSO DISSIPATE LATE DAY. HAVE INCLUDED
MVFR VISBY FOR SOME EARLY MORNING BR IN LOW SPOTS TAF/MHK. 67
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT FRIDAY SEP 19 2008/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL DEFINED WAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE
TX PANHANDLE WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED
WITH THE INITIAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY THIN ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH THE DAY BUT LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH SOME
GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE...EXPECT THE CIRRUS TO
PREVENT IT FROM BEING ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY. HIGHS SHOULD BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THOSE ON THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TONIGHT TO FALL OFF INTO THE MID
50S.
ON SATURDAY AS SECOND WAVE ADVANCES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
PHASES WITH THE INITIAL TROUGH...EXPECT PRECIP TO DEVELOP
PRIMARILY OVER THE OZARK REGION EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
COUNTIES. WILL GO WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL
IN THE LOWER 80S...WARMEST ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE CWA
WILL BE BENEATH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
NEXT STRONGER WAVE...NOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IN CONJUNCTION WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS WESTERN KS WILL
PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FAR WESTERN CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
AND LLVL JET/RESULTING WAA INCREASES ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA...THEN SLOWLY TAPERING
OFF AGAIN ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE CWA AND THE JET WEAKENS AND
SLOWLY BACKS.
BEYOND MONDAY...MODELS SHOWING A STRONGER AND LARGER SCALE TROUGH
WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE ENTIRE CWA INTO THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FCST HAS THIS TREND
WELL HANDLED...SO NO CHANGES MADE TO FCST BEYOND MONDAY.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 191241
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
741 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.UPDATE...
UPDATE FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. DESPITE SOME HIGH
CIRRUS...SOME LOCALLY MVFR/IFR GROUND FOG HAS DVLPNG THIS MRNG.
THIS SHLD QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 14Z IN ALL 3 TAF SITES. MAY A FEW
AFTN CU ARND 4-5 K FT THIS AFTN...BUT THIS WL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
THIS ENVG. MAY ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME MARGINAL GROUND FOG TONIGHT AND
HAVE INCLUDED SOME MVFR VISBY IN THE TAFS FOR THIS ATTM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT FRIDAY SEP 19 2008/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL DEFINED WAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE
TX PANHANDLE WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED
WITH THE INITIAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY THIN ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH THE DAY BUT LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH SOME
GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE...EXPECT THE CIRRUS TO
PREVENT IT FROM BEING ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY. HIGHS SHOULD BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THOSE ON THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TONIGHT TO FALL OFF INTO THE MID
50S.
ON SATURDAY AS SECOND WAVE ADVANCES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
PHASES WITH THE INITIAL TROUGH...EXPECT PRECIP TO DEVELOP
PRIMARILY OVER THE OZARK REGION EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
COUNTIES. WILL GO WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL
IN THE LOWER 80S...WARMEST ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE CWA
WILL BE BENEATH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
NEXT STRONGER WAVE...NOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IN CONJUNCTION WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS WESTERN KS WILL
PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FAR WESTERN CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
AND LLVL JET/RESULTING WAA INCREASES ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA...THEN SLOWLY TAPERING
OFF AGAIN ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE CWA AND THE JET WEAKENS AND
SLOWLY BACKS.
BEYOND MONDAY...MODELS SHOWING A STRONGER AND LARGER SCALE TROUGH
WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE ENTIRE CWA INTO THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FCST HAS THIS TREND
WELL HANDLED...SO NO CHANGES MADE TO FCST BEYOND MONDAY.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
BOUSTEAD
000
FXUS63 KICT 191115
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
615 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...KRSL...KSLN...KHUT...KICT...KCNU.
SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SCHRECK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPS TODAY INTO SAT...THEN SHOWER CHANCES
FOR SUN INTO MON AND AGAIN ON WED.
TODAY-SAT:
WEAK IMPULSE ACROSS EASTERN OK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO MO AS THE EARLY MORNING PROGRESSES. THIS LITTLE
IMPULSE WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY THROUGH SAT AS IT MAKES
SLOW PROGRESS UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE INTO MO. EARLIER MODEL RUNS
SUGGESTED THAT SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS IMPULSE COULD LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED SHRA AND POSSIBLY A
TSRA TO DEVELOP AS FAR WEST AS SOUTHEAST KS FOR FRI AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON SAT AFTERNOON. BUT CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ANY
CHANCE FROM THIS IMPULSE WILL STAY EAST OF THE AREA...WITH DRIER AIR
KEEPING THINGS DRY THIS FAR WEST...SO WILL REMOVE SMALL CHANCES FROM
SOUTHEAST KS WITH THIS IN MIND. WILL GO CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS BOTH DAYS AS PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST A LEANING
TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS.
SUN-MON:
UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN TO THE
AREA BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON SUN AS SHORTWAVE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO RETURN TO THE WESTERN HALF OF KS BY SUN
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS IMPULSE WILL STAY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS...BUT LIFT AHEAD OF THIS IMPULSE IN
THE 305-310 LAYER INCREASES ENOUGH ACROSS AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE
135 FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. THIS
LIFT ACTUALLY INCREASES IN DEPTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON MON
ACROSS CENTRAL KS...FOR A SOLID CHANCE POP...SO WILL INCREASE AND
EXTEND THIS POP INTO MON MORNING. GFS DOESNT SHOW ALOT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS LIFT BUT COOL AIR ALOFT AND 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 20 KTS SUGGEST AT LEAST A TSRA CHANCE.
TUE-THU:
A QUIET DAY EXPECTED ON TUES AS AREA WILL BE BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES. ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
WED. GFS AND TO A LESSOR EXTENT THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THIS WAVE WILL
PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO CEN KS FOR WED INTO THU. NOT ALOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE...AS IT BECOMES
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND POSSIBLY WASHES OUT BY THU BUT AT
LEAST A SMALL POP IS WARRANTED AS IT MOVES SOUTH.
KETCHAM
AVIATION...
06Z TAF ISSUANCE: [KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU]
ONLY ONE MINOR CHANGE FROM 00Z TAF ISSUANCE: TO INTRODUCE SCT050
TO KCNU...KICT AND KHUT TERMINALS EFFECTIVE 18Z-20Z WHERE CLOSER
TO LWR-DECK MOISTURE MIGRATING SLOWLY N TOWARD THESE AREAS. SOME
5-6SM BR POSSIBLE AT KCNU TOWARD 12Z BUT WITH WEAK UPR-DECK LOW
CONTINUING TO SPREAD AMPLE CIRROSTRATUS ~25,000 FEET N OVER MOST
OF KS HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT FOR TIME BEING. ~ES
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 81 58 83 61 / 0 0 10 10
HUTCHINSON 82 59 83 59 / 0 0 10 10
NEWTON 79 58 81 59 / 10 0 10 10
ELDORADO 79 56 79 58 / 10 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 82 57 82 59 / 10 0 10 10
RUSSELL 82 60 83 59 / 0 0 10 10
GREAT BEND 82 60 83 59 / 0 0 10 10
SALINA 83 58 85 58 / 0 0 10 10
MCPHERSON 82 58 83 58 / 0 0 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 81 57 81 59 / 10 10 10 10
CHANUTE 81 57 81 60 / 10 10 10 10
IOLA 80 56 80 59 / 10 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 82 57 82 59 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 190946
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
346 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
325 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2008
THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH EAST AND BE REPLACED BY A BROAD TROUGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A COUPLE OF UPPER LOW CENTERS MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.
MODELS ARE NOW INCREASING THE POPS OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION AS
THE FIRST UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. INSTEAD OF GOING HOG WILD WITH THE POPS AND
QPF...HAVE MODERATED VALUES AND TRENDED UPWARDS WITH POPS ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL HAVE ALSO TRENDED
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD AS ADDITIONAL MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER ON SUNDAY. HAVE TRIMMED A FEW DEGREES OFF TEMPERATURES
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY FROM WHAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE ON SATURDAY.
THE NEXT POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SECOND MAIN TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
LEFT THINGS PRETTY MUCH INTACT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT ON AS THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT WAS ALREADY DEPICTED.
LOCKHART
&&
.AVIATION...
325 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2008
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS AND
THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH IN PLACE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE WITH SOUTH WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH A FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FORMING DURING THE DAY
AND DISSIPATING AGAIN OVER NIGHT.
LOCKHART
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 190907
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
359 AM CDT FRIDAY SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL DEFINED WAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE
TX PANHANDLE WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED
WITH THE INITIAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY THIN ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH THE DAY BUT LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH SOME
GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE...EXPECT THE CIRRUS TO
PREVENT IT FROM BEING ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY. HIGHS SHOULD BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THOSE ON THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TONIGHT TO FALL OFF INTO THE MID
50S.
ON SATURDAY AS SECOND WAVE ADVANCES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
PHASES WITH THE INITIAL TROUGH...EXPECT PRECIP TO DEVELOP
PRIMARILY OVER THE OZARK REGION EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
COUNTIES. WILL GO WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL
IN THE LOWER 80S...WARMEST ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE CWA
WILL BE BENEATH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
NEXT STRONGER WAVE...NOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IN CONJUNCTION WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS WESTERN KS WILL
PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FAR WESTERN CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
AND LLVL JET/RESULTING WAA INCREASES ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA...THEN SLOWLY TAPERING
OFF AGAIN ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE CWA AND THE JET WEAKENS AND
SLOWLY BACKS.
BEYOND MONDAY...MODELS SHOWING A STRONGER AND LARGER SCALE TROUGH
WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE ENTIRE CWA INTO THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FCST HAS THIS TREND
WELL HANDLED...SO NO CHANGES MADE TO FCST BEYOND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BKN HIGH CIRRUS MAY
PREVENT ANY GROUND FOG FROM FORMING AT KTOP. THOUGH IT MAY THIN OUT
AT KTOP BY 12Z WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY LIGHT GROUND FOG.
KMHK HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF CLEARING OUT BY 11Z AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG MAY FORM. ANY GROUND FOG THAT FORMS BEFORE SUNRISE WILL MIX OUT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KDDC 190855
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
355 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES OR CONCERNS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH SATURDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL AFFECT WESTERN KANSAS IN
THE WAKE OF THE WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED ELONGATED, WEAK AXIS OF
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS SOUTHEAST INTO
ARKANSAS. THIS UNEVENTFUL SHEAR AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY WHICH WILL BE REPLACED BY ANTICYCLONIC
MID LEVEL FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE/DRYING. THUS, WILL DECREASE SKY COVER
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EXPECTED TO GO ALONG WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. NO CHANGE IS REQUIRED IN THE MAX/MIN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THIS APPEARS TO BE ON TARGET WITH PROGGED
NAM/GFS H85 TEMPERATURE PROG. A SURFACE LEESIDE TROUGH (WEAK) WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING TO THE EAST
ACROSS THE OZARKS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A
PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW, WITH SURFACE WINDS
AVERAGING 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY. A FEW HIGH-TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
FORM ACROSS THE RATON MESA AREA WHICH MAY DRIFT CLOSE TO OR INTO
MORTON COUNTY BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY...AND WILL GO WITH 10 TO 14
POPS FOR THE MORTON COUNTY AREA.
DAYS 3-7...
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY.
WEATHER-CLIMATE SITUATION IS QUITE COMPLICATED, WHICH IS TYPICAL
DURING SEASONAL TRANSITION. BROADLY, FASTER SUBSEASONAL SIGNALS OF
TROPICAL CONVECTIVE FORCING AND CIRCULATION RESPONSES ARE SHIFTING
THROUGH THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE. ONE RESPONSE HAS BEEN THE INCREASE
OF MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY WIND FLOW OVER ABOUT THE LAST WEEK.
PROBABLE REGIONAL SCALE EVOLUTIONS WEEKS 1-3 INCLUDE 1) A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS NEXT WEEK, AND 2)
AND EXTENDED NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN JET LEADING TO RIDGING/SPLIT FLOW
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AFTERWARD. SIGNALS INVOLVING THE TROPICAL
FORCING AND GLOBAL CIRCULATION RESPONSE ARE LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN ONCE
THEY RETURN TO THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE.
THE ABOVE NOTION IS CONSISTENT WITH PHASES 1-3 OF THE SIGNAL/NOISE
RATIO COMPOSITE STREAMFUNCTION ANOMALY PLOTS DONE ON THE WB (2008)
GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION (GWO). THE LATTER ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE
ESRL/PSD MAP ROOM PER GSDM LINK. IN A SENSE, DURING WEEKS 2-3 THERE
MAY BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF CLIMATOLOGY GOING INTO OCTOBER. THIS
SAME SITUATION WOULD SUGGEST RETROGRESSION OF THESE ANOMALIES
LEADING TO AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL USA
TROUGHS DURING WINTER.
IT IS DURING THESE KIND OF REGIMES THAT NUMERICAL MODELS STRUGGLE
WITH SYNOPTIC DETAILS. HOWEVER, TONIGHT THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUNS THROUGH ABOUT DAYS 4-5, AS THEIR INITIAL
CONDITIONS CATCH UP TO THE ATMOSPHERE.
THE CLOSED MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE NEAR 40N/128W (PER SAT
PICS) WILL GET KICKED INLAND INTO THE ROCKIES BY SUNDAY. EVEN
THOUGH THE DEEP LAYERED RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS CUTOFF AND INSTABILITY IS LIMITED, REASONABLE
JET DYNAMICS WILL FORCE SCATTERED MOSTLY ELEVATED STORMS. I SHIFTED
THE EXISTING POPS FARTHER WEST.
THE TROUGH FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE REASONABLE AMPLITUDE AS
IT DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES, THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS. ITS
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH MY CWA ~TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING. I ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND MAINTAINED THE EXISTING ONES FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT LATE THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLED JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND
ADDITIONAL JET DYNAMICS WORKING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION.
I TWEAKED SURFACE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES UPWARD MONDAY-TUESDAY.
WARMER TRAJECTORIES (850MB TEMPERATURES ~25-26C) MAY SUPPORT HIGHS
~90F FROM LBL-DDC ON TUESDAY. MAXES SHOULD BE AT LEAST 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER WEDNESDAY, AND LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO LOWER A FEW MORE
DEGREES.
&&
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL TAF SITES. THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING CIRRUS AND ALTOCUMULUS ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE
TO A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC CLOSED LOW EAST OF THE FA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 82 55 85 60 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 84 54 84 60 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 83 52 84 57 / 10 10 10 10
LBL 82 55 85 59 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 83 55 83 60 / 0 0 0 0
P28 83 58 84 59 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FN25/23/23
000
FXUS63 KICT 190810
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
310 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPS TODAY INTO SAT...THEN SHOWER CHANCES
FOR SUN INTO MON AND AGAIN ON WED.
TODAY-SAT:
WEAK IMPULSE ACROSS EASTERN OK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO MO AS THE EARLY MORNING PROGRESSES. THIS LITTLE
IMPULSE WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY THROUGH SAT AS IT MAKES
SLOW PROGRESS UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE INTO MO. EARLIER MODEL RUNS
SUGGESTED THAT SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS IMPULSE COULD LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED SHRA AND POSSIBLY A
TSRA TO DEVELOP AS FAR WEST AS SOUTHEAST KS FOR FRI AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON SAT AFTERNOON. BUT CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ANY
CHANCE FROM THIS IMPULSE WILL STAY EAST OF THE AREA...WITH DRIER AIR
KEEPING THINGS DRY THIS FAR WEST...SO WILL REMOVE SMALL CHANCES FROM
SOUTHEAST KS WITH THIS IN MIND. WILL GO CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS BOTH DAYS AS PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST A LEANING
TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS.
SUN-MON:
UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN TO THE
AREA BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON SUN AS SHORTWAVE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO RETURN TO THE WESTERN HALF OF KS BY SUN
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS IMPULSE WILL STAY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS...BUT LIFT AHEAD OF THIS IMPULSE IN
THE 305-310 LAYER INCREASES ENOUGH ACROSS AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE
135 FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. THIS
LIFT ACTUALLY INCREASES IN DEPTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON MON
ACROSS CENTRAL KS...FOR A SOLID CHANCE POP...SO WILL INCREASE AND
EXTEND THIS POP INTO MON MORNING. GFS DOESNT SHOW ALOT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS LIFT BUT COOL AIR ALOFT AND 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 20 KTS SUGGEST AT LEAST A TSRA CHANCE.
TUE-THU:
A QUIET DAY EXPECTED ON TUES AS AREA WILL BE BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES. ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
WED. GFS AND TO A LESSOR EXTENT THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THIS WAVE WILL
PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO CEN KS FOR WED INTO THU. NOT ALOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE...AS IT BECOMES
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND POSSIBLY WASHES OUT BY THU BUT AT
LEAST A SMALL POP IS WARRANTED AS IT MOVES SOUTH.
KETCHAM
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF ISSUANCE: [KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU]
ONLY ONE MINOR CHANGE FROM 00Z TAF ISSUANCE: TO INTRODUCE SCT050
TO KCNU...KICT AND KHUT TERMINALS EFFECTIVE 18Z-20Z WHERE CLOSER
TO LWR-DECK MOISTURE MIGRATING SLOWLY N TOWARD THESE AREAS. SOME
5-6SM BR POSSIBLE AT KCNU TOWARD 12Z BUT WITH WEAK UPR-DECK LOW
CONTINUING TO SPREAD AMPLE CIRROSTRATUS ~25,000 FEET N OVER MOST
OF KS HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT FOR TIME BEING. ~ES
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 81 58 83 61 / 0 0 10 10
HUTCHINSON 82 59 83 59 / 0 0 10 10
NEWTON 79 58 81 59 / 10 0 10 10
ELDORADO 79 56 79 58 / 10 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 82 57 82 59 / 10 0 10 10
RUSSELL 82 60 83 59 / 0 0 10 10
GREAT BEND 82 60 83 59 / 0 0 10 10
SALINA 83 58 85 58 / 0 0 10 10
MCPHERSON 82 58 83 58 / 0 0 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 81 57 81 59 / 10 10 10 10
CHANUTE 81 57 81 60 / 10 10 10 10
IOLA 80 56 80 59 / 10 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 82 57 82 59 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 190457
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1157 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF ISSUANCE: [KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU]
ONLY ONE MINOR CHANGE FROM 00Z TAF ISSUANCE: TO INTRODUCE SCT050
TO KCNU...KICT AND KHUT TERMINALS EFFECTIVE 18Z-20Z WHERE CLOSER
TO LWR-DECK MOISTURE MIGRATING SLOWLY N TOWARD THESE AREAS. SOME
5-6SM BR POSSIBLE AT KCNU TOWARD 12Z BUT WITH WEAK UPR-DECK LOW
CONTINUING TO SPREAD AMPLE CIRROSTRATUS ~25,000 FEET N OVER MOST
OF KS HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT FOR TIME BEING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...
WITH WEAK UPR-DECK LOW MOVING E ACROSS OK CONTINUING TO SPREAD
CONSIDERABLE CIRROSTRATUS (CS) N/NW ACROSS KS INCREASED CLOUDINESS
TO 50-60% OVER MOST AREAS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. TEMPS COOLING A
LITTLE FASTER THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED...BUT RATE OF DESCENT WILL
DIMINISH AS THE AFORE-MENTIONED UPR-DECK LOW CONTINUES IT`S TREK E
AND WEAK SE FLOW ENABLES SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO MIGRATE INTO
SC & SE KS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
AVIATION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE: [KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU]
VFR CIGS & VSBYS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 00Z TAF CYCLE WITH ONLY
CIRROSTRATUS ~25,000 FEET ANTICIPATED AS WEAK UPR-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES E ACROSS OK.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH UPPER LOW AND IT IMPACTS ON
TEMPERATURES AND ANY PRECIPITATION. ALSO CHANCES OF PRECIP AT
VARIOUS TIMES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
TONIGHT - SATURDAY:
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
AND SPREAD CLOUD COVER OUT AHEAD OF IT. AS THIS LOW MOVES OVERHEAD
IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE BETTER LIFT AHEAD TO THE PV ANOMALY
IS LOCATED. DECENT CAPE FOR THIS TIME YEAR SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND
COMBINED WITH THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT FROM THE UPPER LOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VERY LITTLE SHEAR IS EXPECTED SO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH OUR NECK OF THE WOODS HOWEVER THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH COOLER AIR ALOFT IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...
TONIGHTS LOWS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS LOWS
DUE MAINLY TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE TRICKY DUE TO POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER AND
UNCERTAINTIES OVER HOW THICK THAT CLOUD COVER MAY BE... BUT
GENERALLY HAVE ASSIGNED WARMER TEMPS TO CENTRAL KANSAS AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
BE WARMER STILL ESPECIALLY OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.
SUNDAY - MONDAY:
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/ EARLY MONDAY MORNING
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE 305-310K
SURFACE SET UP ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS IS TYPICAL SETUP
FOR A SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS A RESULT WE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OF SUNDAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.
TUESDAY - THURSDAY:
ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS OF ENERGY SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 12Z/18 GFS
CAME IN LINE WITH THE 00Z/18 ECMWF IN THIS WAVE FORCING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. AS A RESULT WE HAVE ASSIGNED SLIGHT CHANCE
PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE
TIMING OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BE IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME
FRAME. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
CDB
AVIATION...
18Z TAFS [RSL/SLN/HUT/ICT/CNU] THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND
LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS KEEPING THE WINDS IN THE AREA OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. THERE WILL BE A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 AT
KRSL AND KSLN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES ALONG THE RED RIVER. SOME LOWER CLOUDS
COULD BE SEEN OVER KCNU IN THE MORNING HOURS DUE TO THE
DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES.
BILLINGS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 56 81 57 83 / 0 0 0 10
HUTCHINSON 56 82 58 83 / 0 0 0 10
NEWTON 56 79 57 81 / 0 10 0 10
ELDORADO 56 79 55 79 / 0 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 56 82 56 82 / 0 10 0 10
RUSSELL 57 82 59 83 / 0 0 0 10
GREAT BEND 57 82 59 83 / 0 0 0 10
SALINA 56 83 57 85 / 0 0 0 10
MCPHERSON 56 82 57 83 / 0 0 0 10
COFFEYVILLE 56 81 56 81 / 0 20 10 20
CHANUTE 56 81 56 81 / 0 20 10 20
IOLA 56 80 55 80 / 0 20 10 20
PARSONS-KPPF 56 82 56 82 / 0 20 10 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 190439
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1139 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06 UTC AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BKN HIGH CIRRUS
MAY PREVENT ANY GROUND FOG FROM FORMING AT KTOP. THOUGH IT MAY
THIN OUT AT KTOP BY 12Z WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY LIGHT
GROUND FOG. KMHK HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF CLEARING OUT BY 11Z AND
PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY FORM. ANY GROUND FOG THAT FORMS BEFORE
SUNRISE WILL MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT-TERM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS JOURNEY EASTWARD
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS PREVAILING ON THE
BACKSIDE. SURFACE MOISTURE HAS SLOWLY INCREASED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...BUT IN NO DRAMATIC FASHION AS PARCEL TRAJECTORY IS OVER
MEAGER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
ONLY NOTICEABLE EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER HAS COME IN THE FORM OF MODEST
CIRRUS COVERAGE AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MAY BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED BL MOISTURE AND CIRRUS OVERHEAD.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY OR CALM IN NATURE AFTER SUNSET AT
MOST LOCATIONS. FEASIBLE A FEW AREAS MAY SEE SHALLOW GROUND FOG ONCE
AGAIN RETURN IN FAVORABLE COLD AIR DRAINAGE AREAS OR WARM BODIES OF
WATER...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE TRIVIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE LOWER 80S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CIRRUS WILL REMAIN PRESENT AND
THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH BL MOISTURE TO SEE SOME CU BY AFTERNOON.
BLAIR
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY WITH COOLING MID LEVELS
FROM FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO BRING WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
TO MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN AREAS SATURDAY. FORCING IS NOT EXCITING...BUT
STILL MAY SEE SOME DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD MIXING. WILL LEAVE
SATURDAY NIGHT DRY FOR NOW WITH SUNSET APPROACHING 00Z. BETTER
MOISTURE WILL MOVE OFF FOR SUNDAY AS THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS TROF
EXITS WITH THE NEXT UPPER WAVE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
PERSISTENCE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SOMEWHAT INTO NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER
TROFS MAKING FURTHER PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. UPPER TROF NOW
OFF THE WEST COAST TO ENTER THE ROCKIES THEN GET SHOVED NORTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL CANADA AS THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE COMES INTO THE
CONUS. SOME MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE INFLUX EXISTS
WITH THE INITIAL WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...WITH BETTER
CHANCES IN THE WEST. SHOULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATE IN THE FORECAST AS THE LATTER TROF PUSHES A PACIFIC
FRONT INTO THE PLAINS AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THE UPPER TROF AND FRONT BECOME APPARENT BY TUESDAY...AND
THERE IS SOME REASON FOR UNCERTAINTY WITH A BLOCKING REGIME TO THE
EAST IN THE FORM OF UPPER RIDGING IN THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND
POSSIBLE TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHEAST...BUT SOME MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION SEEMS IN ORDER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR MID
SEPTEMBER NORMALS...WITH SIGNIFICANT COOLING BEHIND THE LATE WEEK
FRONT NOT LIKELY AS THE PACIFIC AIRMASS MODIFIES.
65
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
GARGAN
000
FXUS63 KICT 190155
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
855 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...
WITH WEAK UPR-DECK LOW MOVING E ACROSS OK CONTINUING TO SPREAD
CONSIDERABLE CIRROSTRATUS (CS) N/NW ACROSS KS INCREASED CLOUDINESS
TO 50-60% OVER MOST AREAS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. TEMPS COOLING A
LITTLE FASTER THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED...BUT RATE OF DESCENT WILL
DIMINISH AS THE AFORE-MENTIONED UPR-DECK LOW CONTINUES IT`S TREK E
AND WEAK SE FLOW ENABLES SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO MIGRATE INTO
SC & SE KS.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
AVIATION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE: [KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU]
VFR CIGS & VSBYS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 00Z TAF CYCLE WITH ONLY
CIRROSTRATUS ~25,000 FEET ANTICIPATED AS WEAK UPR-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES E ACROSS OK.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH UPPER LOW AND IT IMPACTS ON
TEMPERATURES AND ANY PRECIPITATION. ALSO CHANCES OF PRECIP AT
VARIOUS TIMES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
TONIGHT - SATURDAY:
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
AND SPREAD CLOUD COVER OUT AHEAD OF IT. AS THIS LOW MOVES OVERHEAD
IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE BETTER LIFT AHEAD TO THE PV ANOMALY
IS LOCATED. DECENT CAPE FOR THIS TIME YEAR SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND
COMBINED WITH THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT FROM THE UPPER LOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VERY LITTLE SHEAR IS EXPECTED SO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH OUR NECK OF THE WOODS HOWEVER THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH COOLER AIR ALOFT IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...
TONIGHTS LOWS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS LOWS
DUE MAINLY TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE TRICKY DUE TO POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER AND
UNCERTAINTIES OVER HOW THICK THAT CLOUD COVER MAY BE... BUT
GENERALLY HAVE ASSIGNED WARMER TEMPS TO CENTRAL KANSAS AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
BE WARMER STILL ESPECIALLY OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.
SUNDAY - MONDAY:
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/ EARLY MONDAY MORNING
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE 305-310K
SURFACE SET UP ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS IS TYPICAL SETUP
FOR A SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS A RESULT WE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OF SUNDAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.
TUESDAY - THURSDAY:
ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS OF ENERGY SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 12Z/18 GFS
CAME IN LINE WITH THE 00Z/18 ECMWF IN THIS WAVE FORCING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. AS A RESULT WE HAVE ASSIGNED SLIGHT CHANCE
PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE
TIMING OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BE IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME
FRAME. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
CDB
AVIATION...
18Z TAFS [RSL/SLN/HUT/ICT/CNU] THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND
LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS KEEPING THE WINDS IN THE AREA OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. THERE WILL BE A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 AT
KRSL AND KSLN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES ALONG THE RED RIVER. SOME LOWER CLOUDS
COULD BE SEEN OVER KCNU IN THE MORNING HOURS DUE TO THE
DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES.
BILLINGS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 56 81 57 83 / 0 0 0 10
HUTCHINSON 56 82 58 83 / 0 0 0 10
NEWTON 56 79 57 81 / 0 10 0 10
ELDORADO 56 79 55 79 / 0 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 56 82 56 82 / 0 10 0 10
RUSSELL 57 82 59 83 / 0 0 0 10
GREAT BEND 57 82 59 83 / 0 0 0 10
SALINA 56 83 57 85 / 0 0 0 10
MCPHERSON 56 82 57 83 / 0 0 0 10
COFFEYVILLE 56 81 56 81 / 0 20 10 20
CHANUTE 56 81 56 81 / 0 20 10 20
IOLA 56 80 55 80 / 0 20 10 20
PARSONS-KPPF 56 82 56 82 / 0 20 10 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 190011
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
611 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES UNTIL SUNDAY AND THEN
MOVE EAST WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE TROUGH
WILL EXIST OVER EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE
IS ADVERTISED FOR SUNDAY BUT SEEMS FAR REMOVED FROM THE MAIN TROUGH.
850-700 MOISTURE IS MARGINAL AND DYNAMICS ARE WEAK. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
SILENT POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH NIL POPS FOR THE
REMAINING PERIODS. CONSEQUENTLY THE MAIN CONSIDERATION FOR THIS
FORECAST IS TEMPERATURES.
BREEZY WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE BY SUNSET AS THE SURFACE
GRADIENT RELAXES. DO NOT EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.
IN THE EXTENDED...UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT IN EASTERN COLORADO AND WILL
CONTINUE THERE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
DYNAMICS SHOULD START IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THEN EXIT THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
850MB TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE 80S MONDAY/TUESDAY AND
THEN COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WED SO THAT HIGHS WILL COOL TO
THE UPPER 70S THROUGH THU. MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S WILL COOL
TO THE MID/UPPER 40S BY WED AND THU NIGHTS.
FS
&&
.AVIATION...
606 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2008
FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. INITIALLY WINDS FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 MPH
BY 02Z. SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT
THIS EVENING TO SCT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IF ANY WITH SCT MID LEVEL
CUMULUS AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS RETURNING TO THE REGION LATE
IN THE PERIOD TOMORROW.
BLM
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 182349
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
649 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 00 UTC AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
OVERALL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MINOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN OK/S.W. KS HAS
CAUSED BKN CIRRUS SHIELD TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BKN
CIRRUS WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT AS MINOR UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE
EAST LATE TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS HAVE ADVECTED MID 50 DEW
POINTS NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE
TO BE SHALLOW. HOWEVER...IF SKIES CLEAR BY SUNRISE AND WINDS ARE
LIGHT WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AT BOTH TAF
SITES MHK AND TOP BEFORE SUNRISE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SOME DENSE PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY AT MHK. KFOE MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE AS WELL BUT
LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAF. ANY GROUND FOG WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT-TERM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS JOURNEY EASTWARD
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS PREVAILING ON THE
BACKSIDE. SURFACE MOISTURE HAS SLOWLY INCREASED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...BUT IN NO DRAMATIC FASHION AS PARCEL TRAJECTORY IS OVER
MEAGER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
ONLY NOTICEABLE EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER HAS COME IN THE FORM OF MODEST
CIRRUS COVERAGE AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MAY BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED BL MOISTURE AND CIRRUS OVERHEAD.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY OR CALM IN NATURE AFTER SUNSET AT
MOST LOCATIONS. FEASIBLE A FEW AREAS MAY SEE SHALLOW GROUND FOG ONCE
AGAIN RETURN IN FAVORABLE COLD AIR DRAINAGE AREAS OR WARM BODIES OF
WATER...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE TRIVIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE LOWER 80S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CIRRUS WILL REMAIN PRESENT AND
THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH BL MOISTURE TO SEE SOME CU BY AFTERNOON.
BLAIR
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY WITH COOLING MID LEVELS
FROM FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO BRING WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
TO MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN AREAS SATURDAY. FORCING IS NOT EXCITING...BUT
STILL MAY SEE SOME DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD MIXING. WILL LEAVE
SATURDAY NIGHT DRY FOR NOW WITH SUNSET APPROACHING 00Z. BETTER
MOISTURE WILL MOVE OFF FOR SUNDAY AS THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS TROF
EXITS WITH THE NEXT UPPER WAVE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
PERSISTENCE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SOMEWHAT INTO NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER
TROFS MAKING FURTHER PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. UPPER TROF NOW
OFF THE WEST COAST TO ENTER THE ROCKIES THEN GET SHOVED NORTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL CANADA AS THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE COMES INTO THE
CONUS. SOME MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE INFLUX EXISTS
WITH THE INITIAL WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...WITH BETTER
CHANCES IN THE WEST. SHOULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATE IN THE FORECAST AS THE LATTER TROF PUSHES A PACIFIC
FRONT INTO THE PLAINS AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THE UPPER TROF AND FRONT BECOME APPARENT BY TUESDAY...AND
THERE IS SOME REASON FOR UNCERTAINTY WITH A BLOCKING REGIME TO THE
EAST IN THE FORM OF UPPER RIDGING IN THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND
POSSIBLE TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHEAST...BUT SOME MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION SEEMS IN ORDER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR MID
SEPTEMBER NORMALS...WITH SIGNIFICANT COOLING BEHIND THE LATE WEEK
FRONT NOT LIKELY AS THE PACIFIC AIRMASS MODIFIES.
65
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
GARGAN
000
FXUS63 KICT 182340
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
640 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE: [KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU]
VFR CIGS & VSBYS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 00Z TAF CYCLE WITH ONLY
CIRROSTRATUS ~25,000 FEET ANTICIPATED AS WEAK UPR-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES E ACROSS OK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH UPPER LOW AND IT IMPACTS ON
TEMPERATURES AND ANY PRECIPITATION. ALSO CHANCES OF PRECIP AT
VARIOUS TIMES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
TONIGHT - SATURDAY:
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
AND SPREAD CLOUD COVER OUT AHEAD OF IT. AS THIS LOW MOVES OVERHEAD
IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE BETTER LIFT AHEAD TO THE PV ANOMALY
IS LOCATED. DECENT CAPE FOR THIS TIME YEAR SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND
COMBINED WITH THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT FROM THE UPPER LOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VERY LITTLE SHEAR IS EXPECTED SO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH OUR NECK OF THE WOODS HOWEVER THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH COOLER AIR ALOFT IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...
TONIGHTS LOWS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS LOWS
DUE MAINLY TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE TRICKY DUE TO POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER AND
UNCERTAINTIES OVER HOW THICK THAT CLOUD COVER MAY BE... BUT
GENERALLY HAVE ASSIGNED WARMER TEMPS TO CENTRAL KANSAS AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
BE WARMER STILL ESPECIALLY OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.
SUNDAY - MONDAY:
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/ EARLY MONDAY MORNING
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE 305-310K
SURFACE SET UP ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS IS TYPICAL SETUP
FOR A SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS A RESULT WE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OF SUNDAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.
TUESDAY - THURSDAY:
ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS OF ENERGY SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 12Z/18 GFS
CAME IN LINE WITH THE 00Z/18 ECMWF IN THIS WAVE FORCING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. AS A RESULT WE HAVE ASSIGNED SLIGHT CHANCE
PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE
TIMING OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BE IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME
FRAME. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
CDB
AVIATION...
18Z TAFS [RSL/SLN/HUT/ICT/CNU] THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND
LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS KEEPING THE WINDS IN THE AREA OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. THERE WILL BE A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 AT
KRSL AND KSLN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES ALONG THE RED RIVER. SOME LOWER CLOUDS
COULD BE SEEN OVER KCNU IN THE MORNING HOURS DUE TO THE
DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES.
BILLINGS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 57 81 57 83 / 0 0 0 10
HUTCHINSON 56 82 58 83 / 0 0 0 10
NEWTON 56 79 57 81 / 0 10 0 10
ELDORADO 55 79 55 79 / 0 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 55 82 56 82 / 0 10 0 10
RUSSELL 56 82 59 83 / 0 0 0 10
GREAT BEND 56 82 59 83 / 0 0 0 10
SALINA 56 83 57 85 / 0 0 0 10
MCPHERSON 55 82 57 83 / 0 0 0 10
COFFEYVILLE 56 81 56 81 / 0 20 10 20
CHANUTE 56 81 56 81 / 0 20 10 20
IOLA 55 80 55 80 / 0 20 10 20
PARSONS-KPPF 56 82 56 82 / 0 20 10 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KDDC 182031
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
331 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST DECISIONS FOR THE FIRST 60 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE TEMPERATURES.
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM 19Z SHOWED A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR KBPP IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH TRAILING TO THE SOUTH TOWARD A SMALL SCALE SURFACE LOW IN
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH IN COLORADO IS MORE OF RESPONSE TO THE LEE SIDE PRESSURE DIP
GENERALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DOWN WIND SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. A
SOUTH FLOW AT 10 TO 25 MPH HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING AT A STEADY PACE, AND
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 80 T0 85F DEGREE RANGE BEFORE THE DAY IS
THROUGH. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPING SHOWS A DIMINISHING TREND TO
THE HIGH CLOUDS AND THINK ALL BUT OUR EASTERN-MOST COUNTIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR BY 00Z. WILL CLEAR OUT THE EAST COUNTIES BY 03Z.
JUST WISPY HIGH CIRRUS IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON
DIURNAL TEMPERATURES. LOW AT OR JUST BELOW THIS MORNING`S LOWS
WILL BE THE MIN T FORECAST TONIGHT, 50F NEAR EHA IN THE DRIER AIR
AND 56F AT P28 WHERE A SLIGHT MOIST FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE SOUTH.
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH IN THE FRI - SAT NT PERIODS. THE CURRENT MODELS
ARE STILL ON TRACK WITH KEEPING A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR EAST
AND LEE SIDE TROUGH EACH AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST. THE LACKING
INGREDIENT FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP IS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE
MOST ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH NEAR THE GULF COAST AND
ESSENTIALLY CUT OFF FROM FLOWING NORTH INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.
HIGH THIN CIRRUS WILL LIKELY BE FLOWING BY THROUGH THE PERIODS, BUT
NOT THICK ENOUGH TO THWART SURFACE HEATING IN THE DAY NOR DIURNAL
COOLING AT NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 82
TO 86 DEGREE RANGE, WITH NIGHT TIME LOWS IN THE 52F SW TO 58F SE
RANGE. WINDS WILL STAY SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART, OCCASIONALLY GOING
SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. DAY TIME SOUTH WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE BY 18Z EACH DAY, AND
DROP INTO THE 10 MPH RANGE BY 06Z EACH NIGHT.
DAYS 3-7...
A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE HIGH PLAINS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THE MODELS SHOW UPPER DIVERGENCE
INCREASING JUST AHEAD OF A JET STEAK. THE REALLY RICH GULF MOISTURE
MAY STAY TO OUR SOUTHEAST, BUT RESIDUAL DEWPOINTS FROM 12 TO 15C,
ALONG WITH REASONABLY COOL HIGH LEVEL TEMPS (500-200MB) BY SEPTEMBER
STANDARDS, COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE
DRYLINE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY LATE TUE/WED. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM AND
EXTENT OF INSTABILITY ARE NOT KNOWN WITH HIGH CERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT, SOME MID TO HIGH-LEVEL COOLING NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
SHORTWAVE THROUGH, ALONG WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING
DEWPOINTS MAY HELP INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EVEN MORE AFTER DAY 7, ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO
SFC COOLING BEHIND THE TUE/WED SYSTEM. THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON
THE COOLING AND RETREATS THE UPPER JET TO THE CANADIAN BORDER.
MAX TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE 80S THROUGH
DAY 7. HOWEVER, SOME LOWER 90S ARE POSSIBLE ON MON OR TUE. GIVEN
THE FAIRLY HIGH DEWPOINTS, LOWS SHOULD BE MILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
FR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH ONLY A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 54 82 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 52 84 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 50 83 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 53 82 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 54 83 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
P28 56 83 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FN12/24/24
000
FXUS63 KGLD 182030
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
230 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES UNTIL SUNDAY AND THEN
MOVE EAST WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE TROUGH
WILL EXIST OVER EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE
IS ADVERTISED FOR SUNDAY BUT SEEMS FAR REMOVED FROM THE MAIN TROUGH.
850-700 MOISTURE IS MARGINAL AND DYNAMICS ARE WEAK. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
SILENT POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH NIL POPS FOR THE
REMAINING PERIODS. CONSEQUENTLY THE MAIN CONSIDERATION FOR THIS
FORECAST IS TEMPERATURES.
BREEZY WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE BY SUNSET AS THE SURFACE
GRADIENT RELAXES. DO NOT EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.
IN THE EXTENDED...UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT IN EASTERN COLORADO AND WILL
CONTINUE THERE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
DYNAMICS SHOULD START IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THEN EXIT THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
850MB TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE 80S MONDAY/TUESDAY AND
THEN COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WED SO THAT HIGHS WILL COOL TO
THE UPPER 70S THROUGH THU. MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S WILL COOL
TO THE MID/UPPER 40S BY WED AND THU NIGHTS.
FS
&&
.AVIATION...
1122 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2008
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN
20-25 KNOTS BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z TODAY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
BURTIS
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO GOODLAND
000
FXUS63 KTOP 182018
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
318 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT-TERM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS JOURNEY EASTWARD
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS PREVAILING ON THE
BACKSIDE. SURFACE MOISTURE HAS SLOWLY INCREASED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...BUT IN NO DRAMATIC FASHION AS PARCEL TRAJECTORY IS OVER
MEAGER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
ONLY NOTICEABLE EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER HAS COME IN THE FORM OF MODEST
CIRRUS COVERAGE AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MAY BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED BL MOISTURE AND CIRRUS OVERHEAD.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY OR CALM IN NATURE AFTER SUNSET AT
MOST LOCATIONS. FEASIBLE A FEW AREAS MAY SEE SHALLOW GROUND FOG ONCE
AGAIN RETURN IN FAVORABLE COLD AIR DRAINAGE AREAS OR WARM BODIES OF
WATER...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE TRIVIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE LOWER 80S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CIRRUS WILL REMAIN PRESENT AND
THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH BL MOISTURE TO SEE SOME CU BY AFTERNOON. BLAIR
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY WITH COOLING MID LEVELS
FROM FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO BRING WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
TO MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN AREAS SATURDAY. FORCING IS NOT EXCITING...BUT
STILL MAY SEE SOME DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD MIXING. WILL LEAVE
SATURDAY NIGHT DRY FOR NOW WITH SUNSET APPROACHING 00Z. BETTER
MOISTURE WILL MOVE OFF FOR SUNDAY AS THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS TROF
EXITS WITH THE NEXT UPPER WAVE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
PERSISTENCE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SOMEWHAT INTO NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER
TROFS MAKING FURTHER PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. UPPER TROF NOW
OFF THE WEST COAST TO ENTER THE ROCKIES THEN GET SHOVED NORTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL CANADA AS THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE COMES INTO THE
CONUS. SOME MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE INFLUX EXISTS
WITH THE INITIAL WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...WITH BETTER
CHANCES IN THE WEST. SHOULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATE IN THE FORECAST AS THE LATTER TROF PUSHES A PACIFIC
FRONT INTO THE PLAINS AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THE UPPER TROF AND FRONT BECOME APPARENT BY TUESDAY...AND
THERE IS SOME REASON FOR UNCERTAINTY WITH A BLOCKING REGIME TO THE
EAST IN THE FORM OF UPPER RIDGING IN THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND
POSSIBLE TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHEAST...BUT SOME MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION SEEMS IN ORDER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR MID
SEPTEMBER NORMALS...WITH SIGNIFICANT COOLING BEHIND THE LATE WEEK
FRONT NOT LIKELY AS THE PACIFIC AIRMASS MODIFIES. 65
&&
.AVIATION...
AT 18 UTC...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
TAF SITES. SCT-BKN CIRRUS COVERAGE HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS AOB 10KTS
WILL BECOME NEAR CALM POST-SUNSET. POSSIBILITY EXISTS AT MHK FOR
SHALLOW GROUND FOG FORMATION BETWEEN 08-12Z FRI. BLAIR
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 182005
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
305 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH UPPER LOW AND IT IMPACTS ON
TEMPERATURES AND ANY PRECIPITATION. ALSO CHANCES OF PRECIP AT
VARIOUS TIMES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
TONIGHT - SATURDAY:
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
AND SPREAD CLOUD COVER OUT AHEAD OF IT. AS THIS LOW MOVES OVERHEAD
IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE BETTER LIFT AHEAD TO THE PV ANOMALY
IS LOCATED. DECENT CAPE FOR THIS TIME YEAR SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND
COMBINED WITH THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT FROM THE UPPER LOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VERY LITTLE SHEAR IS EXPECTED SO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH OUR NECK OF THE WOODS HOWEVER THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH COOLER AIR ALOFT IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...
TONIGHTS LOWS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS LOWS
DUE MAINLY TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE TRICKY DUE TO POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER AND
UNCERTAINTIES OVER HOW THICK THAT CLOUD COVER MAY BE... BUT
GENERALLY HAVE ASSIGNED WARMER TEMPS TO CENTRAL KANSAS AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
BE WARMER STILL ESPECIALLY OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.
SUNDAY - MONDAY:
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/ EARLY MONDAY MORNING
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE 305-310K
SURFACE SET UP ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS IS TYPICAL SETUP
FOR A SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS A RESULT WE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OF SUNDAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.
TUESDAY - THURSDAY:
ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS OF ENERGY SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 12Z/18 GFS
CAME IN LINE WITH THE 00Z/18 ECMWF IN THIS WAVE FORCING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. AS A RESULT WE HAVE ASSIGNED SLIGHT CHANCE
PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE
TIMING OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BE IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME
FRAME. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
CDB
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS [RSL/SLN/HUT/ICT/CNU] THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND
LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS KEEPING THE WINDS IN THE AREA OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. THERE WILL BE A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 AT
KRSL AND KSLN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES ALONG THE RED RIVER. SOME LOWER CLOUDS
COULD BE SEEN OVER KCNU IN THE MORNING HOURS DUE TO THE
DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES.
BILLINGS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 57 81 57 83 / 0 0 0 10
HUTCHINSON 56 82 58 83 / 0 0 0 10
NEWTON 56 79 57 81 / 0 10 0 10
ELDORADO 55 79 55 79 / 0 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 55 82 56 82 / 0 10 0 10
RUSSELL 56 82 59 83 / 0 0 0 10
GREAT BEND 56 82 59 83 / 0 0 0 10
SALINA 56 83 57 85 / 0 0 0 10
MCPHERSON 55 82 57 83 / 0 0 0 10
COFFEYVILLE 56 81 56 81 / 0 20 10 20
CHANUTE 56 81 56 81 / 0 20 10 20
IOLA 55 80 55 80 / 0 20 10 20
PARSONS-KPPF 56 82 56 82 / 0 20 10 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 181744
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1244 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE...THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND LEE TROUGH TO
THE WEST IS KEEPING THE WINDS IN THE AREA OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST. THERE WILL BE A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 AT KRSL AND
KSLN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS
IT MOVES ALONG THE RED RIVER. SOME LOWER CLOUDS COULD BE SEEN OVER
KCNU IN THE MORNING HOURS DUE TO THE DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES.
BILLINGS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS [RSL/SLN/HUT/ICT/CNU]
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
MID MS VLY DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A S-SERLY
COMPONENT TO WINDS...WITH A FEW GUSTS 20-25 KT AT RSL DURING PEAK
HEATING THIS PM. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE LIFTING OUT
OF THE SRN ROCKIES TO OVER KS/OK THRU TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM THIS FEATURE WILL BE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE TAF
SITES.
JMC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE FRI-SAT TIME
FRAME.
SYNOPSIS:
IN THE UPPER LEVELS A BROAD RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH A SHORTWAVE OFF OF THE CA COAST. WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING A WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKING EAST ACROSS WEST TX. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.
TODAY-TONIGHT:
THE WEAK UPPER WAVE TO OUR SW WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST TODAY WITH
THE MAIN INFLUENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM BEING AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS. HOWEVER EVEN WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALL AREAS WILL
STILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE VERY CLOSE
TO WHERE HIGHS WERE ON WED WITH MOST LOCATIONS RIGHT AROUND THE 80
DEGREE MARK.
FRI-SAT:
A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THESE
TWO DAYS. THIS WILL HELP TO FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER FLOW RESULTING IN
INCREASED LEE TROUGHING...BETTER MIXING AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES. THE WEAK UPPER WAVE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL SLOW DOWN AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER AR/SOUTHERN MO BY SAT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH THESE TWO
DAYS WILL BE THE POSSIBLE INSERTION OF PRECIP CHANCES OVER EXTREME
SE KS AS BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO WORK NORTH AND INTERACT
WITH THE UPPER WAVE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE THE DRY TREND BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME SLIGHTS ARE INSERTED OVER SE KS WITH LATER
FORECASTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPS THROUGH THESE PERIODS WILL
REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
SUN-WED:
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL THROUGH THESE DAYS WITH THE
UPPER PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ONSHORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK
RESULTING IN A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASED RETURN FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
STAYING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE AN AIRMASS
CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
LAWSON
AVIATION...
06Z TAF ISSUANCE: [KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU]
CLEAR SKIES & UNLIMITED VSBYS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 06Z TAF
CYCLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 81 55 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 81 55 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 81 54 81 56 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 81 53 79 54 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 81 54 81 54 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 83 54 83 56 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 82 54 81 57 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 82 54 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 81 54 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 80 53 81 55 / 0 0 0 10
CHANUTE 80 54 81 55 / 0 0 0 10
IOLA 80 54 80 54 / 0 0 0 10
PARSONS-KPPF 80 53 81 55 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 181720
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1220 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18 UTC AVIATION...
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT TAF SITES.
SCT-BKN CIRRUS COVERAGE HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS AOB 10KTS
WILL BECOME NEAR CALM POST-SUNSET. POSSIBILITY EXISTS AT MHK FOR
SHALLOW GROUND FOG FORMATION BETWEEN 08-12Z FRI. BLAIR
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP PERIODICALLY IN THE KTOP/KMHK SITES. VERY
DRY AIR JUST OFF THE SFC AND THE APPROACH OF SUNRISE AND SOME
CIRRUS WILL LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO ANOTHER HOUR OR
SO...THEN VFR ALL AREAS THROUGH 12Z FRI. SCATTERED CIRRUS WILL BE
THE ONLY CLOUDS THROUGH THE FORECAST AS SHORTWAVE UNDERCUTS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE ASSOCIATED VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KTS
TODAY WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AS WELL AS PROFILERS SHOW A CIRCULATION OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH ADDITIONAL CIRCULATIONS NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS MISSOURI INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. SKIES REMAINED CLEAR EXCEPT
FOR SOME CIRRUS NEAR THE UPPER CIRCULATION OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM AS TODAY WILL BE
NEARLY IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAY. THE UPPER CIRCULATIONS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NEBRASKA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE ACROSS KANSAS IS LIMITED AND FORCING WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING AND
ADJUSTED SOME OF THE CLOUD FORECAST. MADE NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES
INT HE EXTENDED...BUT DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 181719
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1119 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
336 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2008
THERE IS ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS PERSISTING UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS STATES. A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW MAY
CREATE A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT
TODAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE
AREA...OTHERWISE THERE IS NOT MUCH GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM.
LATE IN THE WEEKEND ON SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AGAIN AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH THE
DEEPENING OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THERE REALLY ISN`T A
SURFACE FRONT BEING DEPICTED BY THE MODELS WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH
THAT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...SO TEMPERATURES DO NOT COOL ON
SUNDAY OR MONDAY AND WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS BEING HINTED AT BY THE MODELS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. BUT WITHOUT ANY REAL SURFACE SUPPORT FOR
DEVELOPMENT...CURRENTLY FEEL ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
MAINLY ELEVATED WITH VERY LITTLE TO ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
GROUND IN OUR CWA. HAVE ONLY TOSSED IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FAR EAST SECTIONS OF OUR CWA AS A RESULT.
IT LOOKS LIKE A FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST HAS TEMPERATURES DECREASING 5-10
DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT. GFS IS ALSO DEPICTING AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS PRECIP IS NOT
CURRENTLY DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST...BUT GIVEN THE RECENT
UNCERTAINTY OF ANYTHING PAST DAY 5...WILL DEFER THE INCORPORATION
OF PRECIPITATION IN THE DAY 6-7 TIME FRAME TO SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS.
LOCKHART
&&
.AVIATION...
1122 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2008
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN
20-25 KNOTS BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z TODAY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
BURTIS
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 181147
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
647 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP PERIODICALLY IN THE KTOP/KMHK SITES. VERY
DRY AIR JUST OFF THE SFC AND THE APPROACH OF SUNRISE AND SOME
CIRRUS WILL LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO ANOTHER HOUR OR
SO...THEN VFR ALL AREAS THROUGH 12Z FRI. SCATTERED CIRRUS WILL BE
THE ONLY CLOUDS THROUGH THE FORECAST AS SHORTWAVE UNDERCUTS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE ASSOCIATED VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KTS
TODAY WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AS WELL AS PROFILERS SHOW A CIRCULATION OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH ADDITIONAL CIRCULATIONS NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS MISSOURI INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. SKIES REMAINED CLEAR EXCEPT
FOR SOME CIRRUS NEAR THE UPPER CIRCULATION OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM AS TODAY WILL BE
NEARLY IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAY. THE UPPER CIRCULATIONS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NEBRASKA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE ACROSS KANSAS IS LIMITED AND FORCING WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING AND
ADJUSTED SOME OF THE CLOUD FORECAST. MADE NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES
INT HE EXTENDED...BUT DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. WILL SEE INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AFTER 14Z WITH A BIT OF AFTERNOON MIXING.
SCT CIRRUS WILL BE THE ONLY CLOUDS OF NOTE.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
63
000
FXUS63 KICT 181133
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
633 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS [RSL/SLN/HUT/ICT/CNU]
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
MID MS VLY DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A S-SERLY
COMPONENT TO WINDS...WITH A FEW GUSTS 20-25 KT AT RSL DURING PEAK
HEATING THIS PM. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE LIFTING OUT
OF THE SRN ROCKIES TO OVER KS/OK THRU TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM THIS FEATURE WILL BE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE TAF
SITES.
JMC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE FRI-SAT TIME
FRAME.
SYNOPSIS:
IN THE UPPER LEVELS A BROAD RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH A SHORTWAVE OFF OF THE CA COAST. WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING A WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKING EAST ACROSS WEST TX. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.
TODAY-TONIGHT:
THE WEAK UPPER WAVE TO OUR SW WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST TODAY WITH
THE MAIN INFLUENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM BEING AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS. HOWEVER EVEN WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALL AREAS WILL
STILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE VERY CLOSE
TO WHERE HIGHS WERE ON WED WITH MOST LOCATIONS RIGHT AROUND THE 80
DEGREE MARK.
FRI-SAT:
A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THESE
TWO DAYS. THIS WILL HELP TO FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER FLOW RESULTING IN
INCREASED LEE TROUGHING...BETTER MIXING AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES. THE WEAK UPPER WAVE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL SLOW DOWN AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER AR/SOUTHERN MO BY SAT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH THESE TWO
DAYS WILL BE THE POSSIBLE INSERTION OF PRECIP CHANCES OVER EXTREME
SE KS AS BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO WORK NORTH AND INTERACT
WITH THE UPPER WAVE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE THE DRY TREND BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME SLIGHTS ARE INSERTED OVER SE KS WITH LATER
FORECASTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPS THROUGH THESE PERIODS WILL
REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
SUN-WED:
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL THROUGH THESE DAYS WITH THE
UPPER PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ONSHORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK
RESULTING IN A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASED RETURN FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
STAYING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE AN AIRMASS
CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
LAWSON
AVIATION...
06Z TAF ISSUANCE: [KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU]
CLEAR SKIES & UNLIMITED VSBYS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 06Z TAF
CYCLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 81 55 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 81 55 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 81 54 81 56 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 81 53 79 54 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 81 54 81 54 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 83 54 83 56 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 82 54 81 57 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 82 54 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 81 54 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 80 53 81 55 / 0 0 0 10
CHANUTE 80 54 81 55 / 0 0 0 10
IOLA 80 54 80 54 / 0 0 0 10
PARSONS-KPPF 80 53 81 55 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 181000
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
400 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
336 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2008
THERE IS ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS PERSISTING UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS STATES. A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW MAY
CREATE A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT
TODAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE
AREA...OTHERWISE THERE IS NOT MUCH GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM.
LATE IN THE WEEKEND ON SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AGAIN AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH THE
DEEPENING OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THERE REALLY ISN`T A
SURFACE FRONT BEING DEPICTED BY THE MODELS WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH
THAT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...SO TEMPERATURES DO NOT COOL ON
SUNDAY OR MONDAY AND WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS BEING HINTED AT BY THE MODELS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. BUT WITHOUT ANY REAL SURFACE SUPPORT FOR
DEVELOPMENT...CURRENTLY FEEL ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
MAINLY ELEVATED WITH VERY LITTLE TO ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
GROUND IN OUR CWA. HAVE ONLY TOSSED IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FAR EAST SECTIONS OF OUR CWA AS A RESULT.
IT LOOKS LIKE A FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST HAS TEMPERATURES DECREASING 5-10
DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT. GFS IS ALSO DEPICTING AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS PRECIP IS NOT
CURRENTLY DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST...BUT GIVEN THE RECENT
UNCERTAINTY OF ANYTHING PAST DAY 5...WILL DEFER THE INCORPORATION
OF PRECIPITATION IN THE DAY 6-7 TIME FRAME TO SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS.
LOCKHART
&&
.AVIATION...
336 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2008
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25
KNOTS BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z TODAY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
LOCKHART
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KDDC 180849
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
349 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST WILL BE THE RATHER INNOCUOUS TROUGH WITHIN
THE WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER JET STREAM MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS TODAY AND ITS IMPACTS ON CLOUD COVER AND HIGH
TEMPS.
EARLY MORNING WV LOOP SHOWS A DECENT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED
AROUND DALHART, TX WITH BEST ASCENT FROM THIS WAVE OCCURRING ACROSS
NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KS. HIGH CIRRIFORM CLOUD
COVER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FEATURE...AS MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE TROPOSPHERE IS QUITE DRY. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CIRRUS CLOUDS PER GFS/NAM FORECAST
300-400MB RH IN THE CYCLONIC EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
JET. THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKY COVER FROM WEST
TO EAST TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE DEPENDING ON THE
OPACITY OF THE CIRRIFORM CLOUD COVER. THE MORE TRANSPARENT CIRRUS
OBVIOUSLY WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES, BUT
NEVERTHELESS, NAM H85 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
CELSIUS COOLER THAN YESTERDAY, SO HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED
LOWER 80S. AREAS THAT SEE MORE OPAQUE CLOUD COVER FOR A LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME WILL PROBABLY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE UPPER 70S.
OUTSIDE OF THESE SOMEWHAT TRIVIAL CONCERNS, NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES
ARE REQUIRED FOR THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
DAYS 3-7...
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAINFALL.
FULL DISK SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED TROPICAL CONVECTIVE
FORCING SHIFTING INTO THE WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PACIFIC OCEAN.
THERE IS A MJO COMPONENT TO THE LATTER, HAVING ROUGHLY A 1.5
STANDARD DEVIATION PROJECTION IN OCTANT 5 OF WH (2004) PHASE SPACE.
HOWEVER, THIS SIGNAL HAS STALLED AS A RESPONSE TO SLOWER PROCESSES,
INCLUDING AN INTERANNUAL COMPONENT. SUPERIMPOSED ON THESE SLOWER
WEATHER-CLIMATE SIGNALS HAS BEEN ~10-20 DAY VARIATIONS OF THE WB
(2008) GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION (GWO), WITH THE PRIMARY FORCING
COMING FROM THE MOUNTAINS.
DURING APPROXIMATELY THE LAST WEEK DYNAMICAL PROCESSES MENTIONED
ABOVE HAVE ADDED WESTERLY WIND FLOW TO THE GLOBAL ATMOSPHERE, AND
MUCH OF THAT HAS ALREADY SHIFTED INTO TO THE MIDLATITUDES. A
REGIONAL SCALE RESPONSE HAS BEEN A WELL DEFINED ROSSBY WAVE ENERGY
DISPERSION (RWD) FROM THE WEST CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL
CONVECTION LEADING TO THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS SAME RWD
WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN POLAR JET, COLLAPSING
INTO A WESTERN STATES TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS.
ALL OF THE ABOVE IS EXPLAINED BY THE WB (2008) GWO, AND PHASE 8 OF
THE GWO STREAMFUNCTION ANOMALY SIGNAL TO NOISE RATIO COMPOSITES,
AVAILABLE FROM ESRL/PSD PER GSDM LINK, REPRESENTS OUR CURRENT
SITUATION. THESE COMPOSITES DO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE SEASONAL
CYCLE. KNOWING THE TIME SCALES INVOLVED WITH THE GWO, THIS SIGNAL
IS LIKELY TO ORBIT INTO ~OCTANTS 1-2 OF PHASE SPACE THE NEXT 1-2
WEEKS. INDEED, PHASES 1-2 OF THE GWO COMPOSITES SUGGEST A SIGNAL OF
PROGRESSIVE WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES TROUGHS.
THIS DIAGNOSTIC INFORMATION HELPS TO EVALUATE THE NUMERICAL MODELS.
ALL MODELS PREDICT SOME FORM OF A TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN
STATES STARTING THIS WEEKEND SHIFTING INTO THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK.
CUTTING TO THE CHASE, WHILE ALL MODELS ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE IN THIS
TYPE OF REGIME, I PREFER THE SOLUTIONS THAT ARE CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF.
A SPLIT FLOW SITUATION IS PROBABLE TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN USA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE DEVELOPING
TROUGH. THIS WILL HELP KEEP PRESSURES LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND DISRUPT SOME OF THE DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE PLAINS.
THUS I AM NOT IMPRESSED WITH OUR RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AS A
LEADING JET STREAK COMES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL STATES. THE BEST
DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO BE WELL NORTH OF THE CWA.
BY AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY, MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DYNAMICS SHOULD BE
BETTER WITH A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH COMING OUT INTO THE
PLAINS. A DECENT COLD FRONT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. I DID
NOT ADD PRECIPITATION TO THE GRIDS SINCE THIS IS DAY 7; HOWEVER, THE
DAY SHIFT SHOULD CONSIDER ADDING ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY POPS.
I ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURES. THE WARMEST DAY MAY
BE NEXT TUESDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS.
ONE OR TWO MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS ARE PROBABLE WEEK-2. HOWEVER, A
SITUATION SUGGESTED BY THE GWO PHASE 3 COMPOSITE APPEARS LIKELY
LATER WEEK-2 INTO WEEK-3. THE LATTER SUGGESTS RIDGING TO RETURN TO
AROUND THE USA WEST COAST.
&&
AVIATION...
GOOD VFR WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 82 55 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 82 53 84 54 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 83 51 84 52 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 82 54 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 81 55 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
P28 81 57 80 59 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FN25/23/23
000
FXUS63 KTOP 180812
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
312 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AS WELL AS PROFILERS SHOW A CIRCULATION OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH ADDITIONAL CIRCULATIONS NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS MISSOURI INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. SKIES REMAINED CLEAR EXCEPT
FOR SOME CIRRUS NEAR THE UPPER CIRCULATION OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM AS TODAY WILL BE
NEARLY IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAY. THE UPPER CIRCULATIONS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NEBRASKA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE ACROSS KANSAS IS LIMITED AND FORCING WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING AND
ADJUSTED SOME OF THE CLOUD FORECAST. MADE NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES
INT HE EXTENDED...BUT DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. WILL SEE INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AFTER 14Z WITH A BIT OF AFTERNOON MIXING.
SCT CIRRUS WILL BE THE ONLY CLOUDS OF NOTE.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 180806
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
306 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE FRI-SAT TIME
FRAME.
SYNOPSIS:
IN THE UPPER LEVELS A BROAD RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH A SHORTWAVE OFF OF THE CA COAST. WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING A WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKING EAST ACROSS WEST TX. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.
TODAY-TONIGHT:
THE WEAK UPPER WAVE TO OUR SW WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST TODAY WITH
THE MAIN INFLUENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM BEING AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS. HOWEVER EVEN WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALL AREAS WILL
STILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE VERY CLOSE
TO WHERE HIGHS WERE ON WED WITH MOST LOCATIONS RIGHT AROUND THE 80
DEGREE MARK.
FRI-SAT:
A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THESE
TWO DAYS. THIS WILL HELP TO FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER FLOW RESULTING IN
INCREASED LEE TROUGHING...BETTER MIXING AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES. THE WEAK UPPER WAVE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL SLOW DOWN AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER AR/SOUTHERN MO BY SAT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH THESE TWO
DAYS WILL BE THE POSSIBLE INSERTION OF PRECIP CHANCES OVER EXTREME
SE KS AS BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO WORK NORTH AND INTERACT
WITH THE UPPER WAVE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE THE DRY TREND BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME SLIGHTS ARE INSERTED OVER SE KS WITH LATER
FORECASTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPS THROUGH THESE PERIODS WILL
REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
SUN-WED:
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL THROUGH THESE DAYS WITH THE
UPPER PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ONSHORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK
RESULTING IN A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASED RETURN FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
STAYING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE AN AIRMASS
CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
LAWSON
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF ISSUANCE: [KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU]
CLEAR SKIES & UNLIMITED VSBYS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 06Z TAF
CYCLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 81 55 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 81 55 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 81 54 81 56 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 81 53 79 54 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 81 54 81 54 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 83 54 83 56 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 82 54 81 57 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 82 54 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 81 54 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 80 53 81 55 / 0 0 0 10
CHANUTE 80 54 81 55 / 0 0 0 10
IOLA 80 54 80 54 / 0 0 0 10
PARSONS-KPPF 80 53 81 55 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 180454
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1054 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2008
.DISCUSSION...
245 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2008
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. A PERSISTENT SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
SUBSIDENCE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO THE RIDGE
ALOFT. CONSEQUENTLY POPS WILL BE NIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
BOUNDARY LAYER RH STAYS WELL BELOW 90 PERCENT TONIGHT SO DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY PATCH FOG.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT. 850MB TEMPERATURES
ARE RATHER CONSTANT THROUGH SATURDAY.MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NEARLY STEADY IN THE MID 80S WITH MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.
IN THE EXTENDED...THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROUGH FURTHER
NORTH AS IT RIDES UP THE RIDGE. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN COLORADO ON SUNDAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. FOR
NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH SUCH A LARGE RIDGE IN PLACE. IF
THE GFS IS RIGHT THE MAIN PERIOD FOR A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WOULD
BE SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BEST MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. CONSEQUENTLY
POPS WILL BE NIL FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
FS
&&
.AVIATION...
1049 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2008
FOR THE 06Z TAF...NO CHANGES SINCE THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE WITH
GENERALLY SKC CONDITIONS AND WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH. COULD SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDS APPROACHING 20 KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT INCLUSION.
FOLTZ
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 180451
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1151 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2008
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. WILL SEE INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AFTER 14Z WITH A BIT OF AFTERNOON MIXING.
SCT CIRRUS WILL BE THE ONLY CLOUDS OF NOTE.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2008/
DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...WITH TEMPS UP INTO THE UPPER 70S.
SHORT-TERM...HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE CWA WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. VERTICAL
MOISTURE PROFILES FROM UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AND MODEL DATA DEPICT LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND LIKEWISE A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONTINUES.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND VERY WEAK WINDS ALOFT FOR
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NEAR NORMAL READINGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS
THROUGH FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST AND LEAVE THE AREA UNDER WEAK SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK BROAD TROF DEVELOPS AND MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAY SKIRT
SOME RAIN CHANCES INTO OUR SE COUNTIES BY LATE DAY SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME GUIDANCE REMAINS SE AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AND
ONLY ADD SOME CLOUDS. RIDGE CURRENTLY NOSING OVER THE ROCKIES
SLOWLY DEVELOPS INTO A TROF OVER THE NW STATES AS A SERIES OF
WAVES MOVES INTO THE FLOW. THIS SWITCHES THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA BY MONDAY...WITH
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE TROF INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE PROGGED TO REMAIN GENERALLY NORTH OF OUR
AREA...AND THEREFORE KEEP PRECIP CHANCES NORTH...HAVE UPPED
WINDSPEEDS IN ANTICIPATION OF STRENGTHENING LEE TROF. OTHERWISE
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO ONGOING FORECAST. 67
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
KONOP
| 
