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MAPSS Team Experimental
Seasonal Fire Risk Forecasts

Forecast Methods

Palmer Drought Severity Index for July - September 2007

Consensus Forecast for January - December 2007

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How to interpret these maps:

Fire probability is defined as the percentage of climate scenarios (out of a total of 5) that predict a fire
in the time frame mentioned.

Fire area is defined as the average simulated area of fire if 1 or more scenarios have predicted a fire (including
an adjustment in area to incorporate some fire suppression).

The time frame is based on observed data from the beginning of 2005 up through the most recent complete
month plus 7 months of forecast based on five future climate scenarios.

Fire Probability	Fire Area

Fire Risk Forecasts for Individual Weather Scenarios

FORECAST ARCHIVES

Questions? Comments? Please give us your feedback on the usefulness of our data!