Week of April 27: The current crop of 4 whooper chicks is thriving. These four are slated for the WCEP migration project. As of Monday, 4/28, the oldest, hatched from one of the San Antonio Zoo eggs, is 7 days old, 2 others are 6 days old, and the youngest is 4 days old. The youngest is still learning to eat and drink on his own, but is almost independent. The chicks have already been exposed to whooping crane brood calls, ultralight airplane sounds, and a live whooper imprinting model. If the weather cooperates it won't be long before they'll be introduced to the ultralight for the start of their "ground school" training.

The picture is of our youngest chick being fed by a costumed technician with a whooper puppet head. It takes several days of almost hourly feedings with the puppet before the chick learns to eat from the bowl by himself without a technician's help.

The 6 Florida sandhill cranes are also doing well, and are starting to take exercise walks with the technicians and are also being swum for exercise. Fast growing crane chicks normally get a lot of exercise following their parents around. If captive-reared chicks don't get enough exercise, they develop leg problems. All crane chicks raised at Patuxent take part in a regimen of organized exercise that includes walking and swimming to keep them growing properly.

Current whooping crane egg production is at 31 eggs from 8 producing females. Eight eggs are known to be fertile in addition to the 4 that have already hatched.

Week of May 6: We currently have 11 lively whooper chicks ranging in ages from just hatched (0 days old) to the oldest at 15 days old. Four of the chicks hatched between Monday night (5/5) and Tuesday morning. The second egg from the San Antonio Zoo was one of those. All 11 birds are being trained for the Whooping Crane Eastern Partnership (WCEP) migration project. The four oldest birds have already been introduced to the ultralight plane as part of their "ground school" training. The weather has been a challenge as some unseasonably cool, rainy days have impacted the chicks' exercise and training regimens.

The 6 Florida sandhill cranes are also thriving and enjoying daily exercise walks with the technicians and are also being swum for exercise. Visits to the nearby "Farm Pond" will expose them to wading opportunities.

Current whooping crane egg production is at 43 eggs from 10 producing females. 8 eggs are known to be fertile (in addition to the 11 that have already hatched).

Contact Kathleen O’Malley, Laurel, MD, 301-497-5609

Shakisha O'Connor, a senior at Eleanor Roosevelt High School, Greenbelt, MD, has been working as an intern at Patuxent Wildlife Research Center all academic year on a project entitled "An Acetylcholinesterase Analysis of Pacific Treefrogs in California". During the recent Prince Georges County Regional Science Fair, Ms O'Connor won several awards including First Place in Zoology, the U.S. Congressional Award, Best Exhibitor Award (aka Howard B. Owens Award), Best Presenter Award and a four year scholarship at the University of Maryland Baltimore County campus

Contact: Donald W. Sparling, Laurel, MD, 301-497-5723

USGS Science Plays Key Role in Manatee Decision

Based in part on preliminary findings by USGS scientist Michael Runge, the FWS announced on May 5 that it will withdraw its proposed rule that would have permitted the incidental, unintentional "take" of a limited number of manatees under the Marine Mammal Protection Act. A "take" is defined as harassing, hunting, capturing, collecting, or killing a marine mammal. The manatee is an endangered species that faces threats from a number of human activities, including collisions with boats. Under the findings, FWS was "unable to conclude that incidental take would have a negligible impact on any of the four stocks of Florida manatees studied." USGS has responded to requests from news media throughout Florida.

Contact: Michael Runge, Laurel, MD, 301-497-5748

Publication by Patuxent Scientist:  Science deficiency in conservation practice: the monitoring of tiger populations in India. (K. Ullas Karanth, James D. Nichols, John Seidensticker, Eric Dinerstein, James L. David Smith, Charles McDougal, A.J.T. Johnsingh, Raghunandan S. Chundawat and Valmik Thapar.) 
Abstract: Conservation practices are supposed to get refined by advancing scientific knowledge. We study this phenomenon in the context of monitoring tiger populations in India, by evaluating the ‘pugmark census method" employed by wildlife managers for three decades. We use an analytical framework of modern animal population sampling to test the efficacy of the pugmark censuses using scientific data on tigers and our field observations. We identify three critical goals for monitoring tiger populations, in order of increasing sophistication: (1) distribution mapping, (2) tracking relative abundance, (3) estimation of absolute abundance. We demonstrate that the present census-base paradigm does not work because it ignores the first two simpler goals, and targets, but fails to achieve, the most difficult third goal. We point out the utility and ready availability of alternative monitoring paradigms that deal with the central problems of spatial sampling and observability. We propose an alternative sampling-based approach that can be tailored to meet practical needs of tiger monitoring at different levels of refinement.

Contact James Nichols, Laurel, MD, 301-497-5660

Publication by Patuxent Scientists: Estimating rates of local extinction and colonization in colonial species and an extension to the metapopulation and community levels. (Christopher Barbraud, James D. Nichols, James E. Hines and Heinz Hafner) 
Abstract: Coloniality has mainly been studied from evolutionary perspective, but relatively few studies have developed methods for modelling colony dynamics. Changes in number of colonies over time provide a useful tool for predicting and evaluating the responses of colonial species to management and to environmental disturbance. Probabilistic Markov process models have been recently used to estimate colony site dynamics using presence-absence data when all colonies are detected in sampling efforts. Here, we define and develop two general approaches for the modeling and analysis of colony dynamics for sampling situations in which all colonies are, and are not, detected. For both approaches, we develop a general probabilistic model for the data and then constrain model parameters based on various hypotheses about colony dynamics. We use Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) to assess the adequacy of the constrained models. The models are parameterized with conditional probabilities of local colony site extinction and colonization. Presence-absence data arising from Pollock’s robust capture-recapture design provide the basis for obtaining unbiased estimates of extinction, colonization, and detection probabilities when not all colonies are detected. This second approach should be particularly useful in situation where detection probabilities are heterogeneous among colony sites. The general methodology is illustrated using presence-absence data on two species of herons. Estimates of the extinction and colonization rates showed interspecific differences and strong temporal and spatial variation. We were also able to test specific predictions about colony dynamics based on ideas about habitat change and metapopulation dynamics. We recommend estimators based on probabilistic modelling for future work on colony dynamics. We also believe that this methodological framework has wide application to problems in animal ecology concerning metapopulation and community dynamics.

Contact James Nichols, Laurel, MD, 301-497-5660

Publication by Patuxent Scientists:  Adjusting multistate capture-recapture models for misclassification Bias: Manatee breeding proportions. (William L. Kendall, James E. Hines, and James D. Nichols) Abstract: Matrix populations models are important tools for research and management of populations. Estimating the parameters of these models is an important step in applying them to real populations. Multistate capture-recapture methods have provide a useful means for estimating survival and parameters of transition between locations or life history states but have mostly relied on the assumption that the state occupied by each detected animal is known with certainty. Nevertheless, in some cases animals can be misclassified. Using multiple capture sessions within each period of interest, we developed a methods that adjust estimates of transition probabilities for bias due to misclassification. We applied this method to 10 years of sighting data for a population of Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris) in order to estimate the annual probability of transition from nonbreeding to breeding status. Some sighted females were unequivocally classified as breeders because they were clearly accompanied by a first-year calf. The reminders were classified, sometimes erroneously, as nonbreeders because of attendant first-year calf was not observed or was classified as more than one year old. We estimated a conditional breeding probability of 0.31<>0.04 (estimate <> 1 SSE) when we ignored misclassification bias, and 0.61<>0.09 when we accounted for misclassification.