PURPOSE
The Agricultural Yield survey provides farmer reported survey
data of expected crop yields used to forecast and estimate
crop production levels throughout the growing season.
COVERAGE
The Agricultural Yield survey is conducted in all states
except Alaska and Hawaii. Samples of farm operators are selected
from the March Crops/Stocks survey (small grains) and the
June Crops/Stocks survey (late season crops and tobacco).
Farmers reporting acreage of at least one commodity of interest
are included in the monthly data collection to forecast crop
yields.
CONTENT
Farm operators provide data for small grain crops (winter
wheat, durum wheat, other spring wheat, barley, oats), row
crops (corn, cotton, dry edible beans, peanuts, rice, soybeans,
sorghum, sugarcane), tobacco (burley, air cured, and dark
fired), and hay (alfalfa and other hay) being produced on
the operation. Hay stocks data are also collected.
Acreage planted, acreage for harvest and expected yield per
acre are collected from each operator for the crop of interest
the first month. In following months, the same sample of operators
are contacted to update expected yield per acre data. Updating
reported information from the same sample of operators each
month provides a measure of change resulting from growing
conditions.
FREQUENCY
The Agricultural Yield survey is a monthly survey running
from May through November. Small grains data are collected
from May through August. Row crop data are collected from
August through November. Hay yield data are collected in August
and October with hays stocks collected in May. Tobacco data
are collected from May through November.
METHODS
The reference date for each monthly survey is the 1st of
the month. Data collection for each survey begins no earlier
than the 25th of the previous month for mail data collection.
Phone data collection begins no earlier than the 28th of the
previous month. Data collection concludes about the 5th of
each month depending on the release date of the Crop Production
report.
Sample sizes run from 5,500 (June) to 27,000 (August). The
primary method of data collection is telephone interview.
Mail out-mail back data collection is a highly cost effective
and less burdensome method. However, the narrow data collection
period each month requires a quick response thus reducing
the effectiveness of data collection by mail. Personal interview
data collection is used on a limited basis when requested
by the respondents.
Phone enumerators utilize CATI software which allows the
enumerator to verbally maintain a conversation with the respondent
while following the instrument flow and question text. Data
are entered directly into an electronic format and the software
performs simple consistency checks which drastically reduces
the need to make follow up contacts to the respondent. The
software further reduces respondent burden by using previously
reported data files to avoid unnecessarily re-asking questions
answered by the respondent in a previous month.
PRODUCTS
The Crop Production report is published no later than the
12th of each month. Acreage, yield, and production forecasts
and estimates are prepared for the crops in season.
USES
The Agricultural Yield survey is one component of the estimation
process for commodity production estimates. The Crop Production
report provides critical information on expected end-of-season
commodity supplies each month during the growing season. Farm
operators are the greatest benefactor of this data series.
The NASS estimates of supply are the official, independent,
and unbiased baseline. The price discovery mechanism determines
crop prices using credible estimates of supply that reflect
the changing conditions during the season. Producers rely
on credible estimates of supply to minimize swings in farm
gate prices.
Crop production estimates are valuable for producers and
industry alike to plan the marketing and movement of the commodity
throughout the year. A few examples include development of
an individual producer’s marketing plan (local scope),
forecasting transportation requirements (state or regional),
or evaluating export potential (national and international).
SPECIAL FEATURES
NASS and the World Agricultural Outlook Board have jointly
produced Understanding USDA Crop Forecasts (Miscellaneous
Publication No. 1554, March1999) which provides additional
insight into the crop forecasting program of the USDA.
A NASS report titled The Yield Forecasting Program of NASS
(May 2006) provides a more detailed and mathematical discussion
of the yield forecasting and estimating program.
RELATED PROGRAMS
Objective Yield
Crops/Stocks
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