Where Industry and Security Intersect
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Growth in the number of older people in the populations of countries in the United States, Europe, Asia, and elsewhere suggest that there will be a strong, steady increase in demand over the next several decades for a broad spectrum of AT devices from hearing aids and canes to advanced wheelchairs, specially equipped automobiles, and personal communications devices.
Global sales by companies producing AT products and services in the U.S., according to BIS data, totaled $2.87 billion in 1999, up from $2.35 billion in 1997 -- an increase of nearly 22 percent. In fact, demand for AT products produced in the United States increased from 1997 through 1999 in almost every major market around the world. These figures represent sales by U.S.-owned companies in the United States as well as revenues of the U.S. business units of foreign companies.
BIS’s data understate total sales by AT companies operating in the United States because many firms did not participate8 in the AT industry study, or did not report sales information. An executive of one U.S. mobility equipment company, for example, estimates the domestic market for his type of products alone (excluding simple wheelchairs) at $1 billion annually.
The earnings data gathered in BIS’ survey9 nevertheless is revealing in gauging the size of the markets in the United States and rising rates of demand in some world markets. Sales within the United States grew 25 percent for the 1997-1999 period. AT manufacturers in the United States reported even larger growth in demand in Canada and Mexico, where sales, collectively, jumped from $48.9 million in 1997 to $71.5 million in 1999–an increase of 46 percent.
| 1997 | 1998 | % Change 1997-1998 | 1999 (est.) |
% Change 1998-1999 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOTAL | $2,354,358,592 |
$2,659,477,215 |
12.96% |
$2,865,970,683 |
7.76% |
| United States | $1,856,378,902 |
$2,126,719,899 |
14.56% |
$2,320,180,830 |
9.10% |
| Canada and Mexico | $68,728,724 |
$86,541,477 |
25.92% |
$99,182,574 |
14.61% |
| Western Europe | $278,316,610 |
$285,911,535 |
2.73% |
$282,131,864 |
-1.32% |
| Eastern Europe | $64,631,449 |
$57,232,404 |
-11.45% |
$59,007,169 |
3.10% |
| South America | $12,925,206 |
$14,505,746 |
12.23% |
$7,257,539 |
-49.97% |
| Central America | $923,344 |
$1,770,760 |
91.78% |
$1,406,900 |
-20.55% |
| Middle East | $1,774,154 |
$2,362,504 |
33.16% |
$2,181,313 |
-7.67% |
| Asia & Pac. Rim | $36,766,537 |
$37,898,850 |
3.08% |
$43,981,226 |
16.05% |
| Africa | $1,499,946 |
$1,782,534 |
18.84% |
$1,967,204 |
10.36% |
| Australia | $24,314,968 |
$25,548,868 |
5.07% |
$25,120,800 |
-1.68% |
| Other | $8,098,753 |
$19,202,638 |
137.11% |
$23,553,264 |
22.66% |
| Source: U.S. Department of Commerce/BIS AT Survey |
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For now, the United States is by far the largest market for U.S.-based AT manufacturers and service providers. Domestic market demand accounted for 76.5 percent of the 1999 sales of U.S. companies that participated in the AT survey. But with large older populations in Western Europe and Asia, there are clearly major opportunities for U.S. AT companies to expand sales beyond the borders of the United States.
To understand the dramatic expansion that the assistive technology market will experience in the next few decades, consider this: the average age of the U.S. population is getting older and with increased age comes an increased likelihood that one will develop a disability of some kind.
U.S. Census data10 show that 10 percent of the U.S. population that is between 18 and 34 years of age has some kind of disability, a percentage figure that rises steadily thereafter. For Americans between 65 and 74 years of age, about 42 percent have a disability; and 64 percent of people 75 years or older cope with some sort of disability.
Another positive driver for industry growth is the appearance of new AT technologies–a trend that is projected to continue. Increases in computer power, improved software, and the availability of low-cost microelectronic components that have boosted other sectors of the economy are enabling AT manufacturers to integrate more technology into AT devices. With continued advances in microelectronics, including new sensors and micro electro-mechanical systems, there is every reason to expect not only major innovations in the capabilities of today’s AT devices, but also the creation of many new products.
However, a number of factors will make it difficult for the industry as a whole to prosper, even with these positive market forces. These challenges include the prevalence of small firms in the AT industry; problems in hiring and retaining a trained workforce; difficulties in attracting venture capital and other forms of investment; the technology needs highlighted in the BIS survey; and the disconnect between the AT industry and the resources of the federal laboratory system.
8 The BIS survey was mailed to approximately 1,600 firms. The Interagency Committee on Disability Research in its December 2000 report, Strategy for the Development and Transfer of Assistive Technology and Universal Design, estimates that there may be as many as 2500 AT firms operating in the United States.
9 To avoid over or under representation of the industry, respondents were asked to provide information only on their AT business activities. Some businesses, however, did not isolate information on their AT-related revenues, product lines, R&D investments, work force, business investments and other metrics attributable to the AT market. Many firms not solely engaged in the AT industry were unable to estimate their AT revenues or the proportion of their employees’ work week attributable to AT product business activities.
10 See http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/disability.html