Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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000 FXUS63 KLMK 211440 AFDLMK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 1040 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008 .MORNING UPDATE... MORNING SAT IMAGERY REVEALS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FA. SC CONTINUES TO BREAK UP FROM EAST TO WEST SO LESS CLOUD COVER WAS NOTED OVER THE EAST THAN THE WESTERN SECTIONS. REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW SMALL CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS SW IN MOVING NW. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE STILL CENTERS AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. H5 UPPER TROF REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION FIRING UP ON THE WEST AND NORTH SIDE. THE 12Z NAM SEEMS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION ATTM AND DID INITIALIZE OK ACROSS OUR REGION. IT ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPS SOME SCATTERED PRECIP ACROSS OUR WEST AND HINTS AT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING UP ACROSS THE EAST ONCE AGAIN. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 03Z SREF ENSEMBLES SUGGESTS THE SAME THING. THE CONSENSUS OF THE 03Z SREF KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP OVER NEAR THE MS RIVER AND THE STL AREA. HOWEVER...SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLE HAVE QPF ACROSS CENTRAL KY AS FAR EAST AS LEX. THUS...AM PLANNING ON UPPING PRECIP CHANCES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP ISO CHCS IN ACROSS THE EAST AND THEN FOR AREAS WEST OF 65 KEEP SCT WORDING IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMP FCST LOOK GOOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...MAYBE A DEG OR TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAYS MAX. .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)... MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE ISLD PRECIP CHANCES LIKE YESTERDAY. 630Z WV IMAGERY DEPICTING UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL HANGING OVER SE MISSOURI/SRN ILLINOIS. THIS WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE TO ERN KY BY TONIGHT. IN THE MEAN TIME...THE UPPER LOW ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL WORK TO GENERATE ISLD SHOWERS AND T-STORMS AGAIN TODAY VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE EAST WHICH SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION TO OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA (FA). HAVE CUT POPS OUT OF THE ERN FA FOR TODAY. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPS TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR TODAY. AS THE MOISTURE AXIS MOVES WEST LATE TODAY...CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECLINE ALSO FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TONIGHT WITH THE COOLER TEMPS OVER THE BLUEGRASS WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL RETREAT MORE QUICKLY. .LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND RIDGING WILL OCCUR AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS A RESULTANT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES A FLAT RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AIDING IN THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE A LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW AS AN 8H HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES. SO AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. && .AVIATION (12Z TAFS)... GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LIGHT PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BWG TERMINAL THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE SDF AND BWG TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES OF THAT ARE SLIM SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. LIGHT E/NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE.......MJ SHORT TERM...AML LONG TERM....JDA AVIATION.....AML
