Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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000 FXUS63 KSGF 082243 AFDSGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 445 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2008 .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCU CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ENCOMPASSING MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE THE CWA. TEMPERATURES HAVE HAD A HARD TIME WARMING BENEATH THIS CLOUD DECK...WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TO TIME DECREASING CLOUD COVERAGE. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH...AND THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATOCU DECK WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL EFFECT ON EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS. AM CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL CLEAR...THOUGH IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT CLOUDS WILL HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS. IF CLEARING OCCURS... WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 20S WILL OCCUR. WHERE CLOUDS PERSIST...LOWS WILL LIKELY SETTLE NEAR 30F. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALBEIT FOR ONLY A BRIEF ENGAGEMENT. LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION WILL BE NEUTRAL TO WEAK WAA...SO A BIG JUMP IN TEMPS IS NOT EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS JUST THE MERE PRESENCE OF SUNSHINE WILL GET TEMPS WELL BACK INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME 50S NEAR THE MO/KS STATE LINE. OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKING SYSTEM WILL BE GEARING UP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SUNDAY...WHICH WILL SPREAD MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LOW TEMPS WILL VARY FROM EAST...AROUND 30... TO WEST...UPPER 30S. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA MONDAY. THE ONSET OF RAIN WILL BE SLOWED A BIT OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS DUE TO A DRIER ATMOSPHERE ANCHORED BY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300K LEVEL INDICATES STEADY LIFT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND A GOOD...ALBEIT COLD...RAIN IS EXPECTED. TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE RATHER TRICKY. CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAINFALL WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AREA WIDE... A TAD WARMER OVER CENTRAL MO VERSUS THE REST OF THE AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SLEET PELLETS AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP DUE TO WET BULBING. LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER AMPLIFIED... ESPECIALLY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS AMPLIFICATION VERSUS THE ECMWF... UKMET AND GEM. THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND HAVE ONCE AGAIN SIDED WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR THIS PACKAGE. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY AS A DECAYING DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. RAIN WILL BECOME A BIT MORE SPORADIC TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE FINALLY EXITING STAGE EAST THURSDAY. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE OF NOTE WILL THEN SET ITS SIGHTS ON THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...SENDING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE AND PERIODIC BOUTS OF RAIN. A BRIEF WARMING TREND...BACK TO AVERAGE IS EXPECTED THURS/FRI BEFORE ONCE AGAIN COOLING BELOW AVERAGE NEXT WEEKEND. GAGAN && .AVIATION... THINKING HERE IS THAT STRATOCU CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP THIS EVENING AS 850MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF SPRINGFIELD. STARTING TO SEE SOME CLEARING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...SO BELIEVE THIS WILL HOLD TRUE. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL RISK OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW 20S WITH CLEAR SKIES. DO BELIEVE THOUGH WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 5-7KTS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT THOUGH THAT WE SHOULD STAY MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY. CLAYCOMB && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$
