Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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000 FXUS63 KSGF 040837 AFDSGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 237 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2008 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FOCUS OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CENTERED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE STORM SYSTEM AS ITS EFFECTS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH STRONG 120+KT JET STREAK PUSHING INTO CALIFORNIA. FURTHER EAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY WITH DEPARTING RIDGE AND DEVELOPING LOW OUT WEST AND SHOULD SEE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTEN UP. WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS IN THE WESTERN CWA IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S RANGE WITH LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON MIXING. DEW POINTS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...EVEN DOWN ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING DOWN NEAR BROWNSVILLE WHERE READINGS WERE IN THE LOW 60S...ELSEWHERE READINGS WERE STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH AN EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND. GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE A BIT COOLER AND HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD FROM YESTERDAY BUT BELIEVE SIMILAR READINGS TO YESTERDAY SHOULD BE ATTAINED. HAVE GENERALLY GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE BUT MAYBE A DEGREE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. TONIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY MILD WITH SOUTH WINDS REMAINING IN THE TEENS AND COULD EVEN CONTINUE TO SEE SOME GUSTS OUT WEST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. HAVE GENERALLY GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. TOMORROW NIGHT MAY BE NEEDING TO LOOK INTO A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE PLATEAU FOR WEDNESDAY AS UPPER WAVE SHIFTS EAST OUT INTO THE PLAINS AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS BY 00Z THU. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL STILL ONLY GET INTO THE LOWER 50S BY THEN. LOOKING LIKE SOME DISCRETE SEVERE SUPERCELLS MAY BE POSSIBLE FURTHER WEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS 100-115KT UPPER LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW AND SYSTEM BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED IN THE PLAINS. SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO WORK WITH AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO A SQUALL LINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRY LINE AND PUSHES EAST INTO THE OZARKS. WHILE MAIN HAZARD WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...SHEAR STILL LOOKS IMPRESSIVE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CWA AND THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON THURSDAY WILL BE A TRICKY ONE WITH EXITING PRECIPITATION...CLEARING SKY WITH DRY SLOT MOVING IN AND GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVING IN. FOR NOW HAVE PLAYED IT CLOSE TO MOS NUMBERS. ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND INTO MISSOURI ON FRIDAY AND MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL MO. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THOUGH. LINDENBERG && .AVIATION... FOR THE 0600 UTC KSGF/KJLN TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES...MAINLY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOME LOCAL TERRAIN AFFECTS MAY HELP MAINTAIN MODERATELY HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES AT KSGF DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. A STRONG LEVEL JET SHOULD REDEVELOP TUE EVENING FARTHER EAST INTO SOUTHEAST KS AND MO AND WILL INCLUDE A LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR GROUP IN BOTH TAFS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. DSA && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$
