Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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000 FXUS63 KSGF 060510 AFDSGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 1110 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008 ...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION... .UPDATE... THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE STORM MODE APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING TO MORE OR A SQUALL LINE AS STRONGER STORM CORES MERGE ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR JOPLIN TO TULSA...AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SHIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OZARKS. THE MOST RECENT SEVERE REPORTS HAVE COME OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STORM COMPLEX WITH 60 MPH WINDS AND DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL. STILL EXPECT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE SQUALL LINE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TERRY && .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA SOMETIME IN THE MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. TONIGHT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CORN BELT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT...MAKING IT TO THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT...AS WELL AS ALONG A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR GREATER DETAIL ON THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST. SPEAKING OF WINDS...WE HAVE NOT MET WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA UP TO THIS POINT. WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLING THE WIND ADVISORY BY 4 PM. THURSDAY...THAT FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST OUT OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI IN THE MORNING. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA. WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING AS A DRY SLOT WORKS INTO THE AREA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAY THEN BRING MORE CLOUDINESS INTO THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES ARE A TOUGH CALL GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND COOLING LOW LEVELS. GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET. THURSDAY WILL AGAIN BE WINDY AS LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN RATHER TIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE EFFICIENTLY MIX OUT. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ONE MORE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL COME AROUND THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW AND DRIVE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO UP ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOVER AT OR BELOW ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS. UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE LOOKS PRETTY LIMITED SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION. THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S OVER MOST AREAS. EARLY NEXT WEEK...LONG WAVE CHARTS CONTINUE TO FAVOR DIGGING OF ENERGY OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ENERGY DIVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND EVENTUALLY EJECTING OUT TOWARDS THE OZARKS. STILL NOT A REAL GOOD SIGNAL FOR TIMING...BUT FEEL THAT SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WARM UPS AS LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. SCHAUMANN && .AVIATION... FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE WIND SHEAR IN TAFS THROUGH THE NIGHT BASED ON LATEST WIND PROFILER DATA. LINE OF STORMS PERSISTING NEAR THE MO/KS BORDER FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF EASTWARD MOVEMENT AS SQUALL LINE BEGINS TO DEVELOP...SO WILL CONTINUE VICINITY THUNDER WITH EMBEDDED TEMPO FROM AROUND 06-10Z. MAIN WIND SHIFT WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE IS EXPECTED BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH DRY SLOT CLEARING OUT CLOUD COVER BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TERRY && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$
