Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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000 FXUS63 KSGF 031750 AFDSGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 1150 AM CST MON NOV 3 2008 .DISCUSSION... FORECAST CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE CONTINUES TO DEAL WITH FIRE WEATHER ISSUES TUESDAY...TURNING TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND TIMING WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY. CURRENTLY...PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. PATTERN SHIFT UNDERWAY WITH FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING OVER WEST COAST AND RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WHICH WILL SIGNAL A CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER HERE TOWARDS MID WEEK. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE ROCKIES MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS WYOMING...THROUGH COLORADO INTO NEW MEXICO AT PRESENT. WESTERN GULF STARTING TO RECHARGE AS BUOY DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S THIS MORNING...BUT STILL MORE OF AN EAST/WEST WIND FLOW FOR NOW DOWN THAT WAY AS WE HAVE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL CHANGE AS OUR SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MID AND UPPER 70S FORECAST FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. FOLLOWED MAV MOS TEMPERATURES AS IT HAS BEEN DOING A FAIRLY GOOD JOB THE PAST COUPLE DAYS ON TEMPERATURES. SHOULD START TO SEE THE WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AREA AND THESE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEMS WITH FOG WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SEEING ABOUT A 16MB GRADIENT FROM WESTERN MISSOURI ACROSS KANSAS AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. MAY BE SEEING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. FIRE WEATHER ISSUES WILL BE A CONCERN AND WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. BY WEDNESDAY...WENT WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. THIS IS SUPPORTED AS WELL BY THE WRF SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM. SHOULD START TO SEE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS...WE SHOULD START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF/WRF...THIS WOULD ALLOW MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. STRONG 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH OVERNIGHT CAPES IN THE 700-1000 J/KG RANGE. WITH STRONG LLVL JET AND A 110KT UPPER LEVEL JET...HELICITY VALUES APPROACH 400 M2/S2. DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS IN TIMING BETWEEN MODELS AND STILL THE QUESTION OF GULF MOISTURE RETURN...WILL CONTINUE TO BE JUST HIGHLIGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HWO...BUT IF WE GET A GOOD MOISTURE SURGE...WE COULD BE SEEING ALL MODES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING TO AROUND NOON THURSDAY. ONE GOOD THING WITH THIS SYSTEM...IT WILL BE A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WHEN IT DOES COME THROUGH...SO WHEN TIMING OF FROPA CAN GET NAILED DOWN A LITTLE BETTER...WE WILL BE ABLE TO NARROW DOWN THE TIME FRAME FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES COOL SIGNIFICANTLY. BY FRIDAY...GFS SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCING STRATUS...TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE QUITE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S AND HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE 50S. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT THE SPRINGFIELD AND JOPLIN TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH SURFACE GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. FOSTER && .FIRE WEATHER... SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OSAGE PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH DRIED GRASSES ALREADY IN PLACE...ALONG WITH WARM DAYTIME HIGHS...A HEIGHTENED GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL DEFINITELY BE IN PLACE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY END UP BEING A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER WE STILL SEE OUR MIN RH GRIDS GENERATING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN HWO. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$
