Flash Flood Risk Analysis Project (FFRAP)National Weather Service Springfield MO |
Purpose | Description | Plan
The following web pages are under development. These pages will provide the emergency management community and the general public with detailed flash flood analysis information.
FFRAP Operational Demonstration
FFRAP Low Water Crossing Page - See locaitons of low water crossings in your areal
Flood Briefing Page - Monitor the flooding potential during a rainfall event
Flash floods pose a significant threat to life and produce a substantial loss of property, crops, roads, etc. across the Missouri Ozarks and southeast Kansas each year. The rocky and steep terrain of the Ozark Plateau coupled with hundreds of small streams and rivers result in a significant flash flood hazard. The threat to life is compounded by the hundreds of low water crossings across the Ozark region.
In order to provide flash flood warnings with longer lead time, greater accuracy and more specific information, a greater understanding is needed of the river basins and flood prone areas, and their response to heavy rainfall rates and amounts.
Flash flood warnings are generally issued based on rainfall amounts and rates with limited understanding of the basin in which the rain is falling. The Flash Flood Monitoring Program (FFMP) will result in a significant advancement in the monitoring of rainfall rates and amounts in relation to flash flood guidance. However, data management of the immense amount of output and extracting details on basins and streams from FFMP will be still be a challenge.
The purpose of developing a flash flood threat analysis tool is two fold. First, incorporate detailed geographic and archived information that will aid the flash flood warning process. This analysis tool will aid the warning operator in providing more detailed and accurate flash flood warnings, thus leading to more effective response by those in harms way. Second, the emergency management community in coordination with warning preparedness activities of the National Weather Service can utilize this data to perform more effective flood risk assessment and mitigation activities.
The end goal is to provide the public and other agencies with accurate and detailed warning information for the protection of lives and property.
Although the expanse and complexity of this project is immense, this will begin the process of creating a better understanding of the basins and their reaction and resulting flooding caused by heavy rainfall.
A number of complex factors influence the behavior of flash floods and the effectiveness of the flash flood warning process. The WSR-88D has demonstrated to be highly effective at estimating rainfall rates and amounts. However, flash flood behavior is influenced by basin geography and steepness, soil characteristics, antecedent soil conditions, vegetation and forest coverage, location of roads, land use and urbanized areas, etc. The effective management and assessment of such varied data further compounds the warning process.
The goal of this project is to develop utilities that integrate this data into the flash flood warning decision making process and provide more timely, accurate and detailed flash flood warnings.
In warning operations, the flash flood threat analysis tool would be used by the warning operator in conjunction with the Flash Flood Monitoring Program (FFMP) to assess the flood threat over a given area or basin. The tool by which this data will be analyzed will be developed as this project progresses but include detailed maps and charts, linked databases, photos of streams and flood prone areas, and web links. The maps would include detailed river basins, streams, flood prone areas, cities, roads, low water crossings, archived flood events, etc.
In addition, this data could be provided to the emergency management community to be used as a means of assessing local flood threats and mitigating flood risk. This data could be used to analyze flood prone areas and develop flood mitigation efforts prior to flood events, or assess the flood risk areas and instigate precautionary measures during a flood event.
In addition to the hydro-meteorological and physical processes, other socio-economic factors play a role in flash flooding including urban planning and warning response. This overall flash flood risk assessment will require the assimilation of data from a number of sources.
The flood analysis would be provided to emergency management and the general public via the internet. This system could be developed similar in style to the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS) but contain information pertaining to flash flood potential and impacts.
The following steps will be needed:
Data Collection
Develop method to effectively document flash flood events in office
Develop strategy to collect data from counties, emergency managers, etc.
Collect and organize local knowledge of flash flood prone areas
Identify high risk communities, recreational areas, streams, and low water crossings
Identify and contact resources that provide data of flood events and flood prone areas (emergency managers, highway department, USGS, insurance companies, RFC’s, etc.)
Development of Flash Flood Risk Analysis Tool (operational use)
Create maps utilizing Arcview
Create and link appropriate databases
Analyze and edit existing small basins (FFMP files) as needed
Create interactive map or GUI that allows forecasters to access a geographical area
Assess use of intranet and internet for map and data display
Explore incorporation of maps and data into FFMP
Development of Flash Flood Risk Analysis System (customized for users)
Create test internet page
Tailor maps for use on internet
Evaluate user needs (emergency managers, general public, etc.)
Explores feasibility to automatically upload maps/data with warning issuance
