Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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000 FXUS63 KSGF 080541 AFDSGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 1141 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2008 ...UPDATE TO AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...A CHILLY FORECAST FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS WEEKEND AS CAA WILL CONTINUE IN STIFF NORTHWEST FLOW. AN EXPANSIVE STRATOCU DECK HAS DEVELOPED TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO WARM MUCH ABOVE OUR MORNING LOWS. 40S HAVE BEEN QUITE COMMON TODAY...AND WITH ANOTHER PLUG OF CAA HEADING THIS WAY TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL BE A NEAR CARBON COPY OF TODAY. TONIGHT...WE WILL SEE SOME CLEARING...THOUGH WE WILL KEEP WINDS MIXED A BIT. NEVERTHELESS... CAA WILL PUSH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S AREA WIDE. THIS CHILLY START...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER EXPANSION OF STRATOCU WILL LEAD TO HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AGAIN SATURDAY. WE HAD ABOUT A 10F DIURNAL RANGE TODAY...AND HAVE NO REASON TO THINK IT WONT BE THE SAME TOMORROW. CLEARING WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. SFC RIDGING WILL SLIDE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND 925/850MB TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S LIKELY. SUNSHINE AND NEUTRAL TO WEAK WAA WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE CALM BEFORE OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...THOUGH CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW AND 30S DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE MO/KS BORDER WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT. ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS...THOUGH THIS WILL CHANGE ON MONDAY. LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...FIVE WAVE CHARTS FROM THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DIGGING ENERGY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE MED RANGE MODELS DO NOT OFFER MUCH DIFFERENCE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE OPS GFS REMAINS THE FASTER...MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WHILE THE OPS ECMWF/UKMET/GEM MODELS ARE 12 OR SO HOURS SLOWER. THE GFS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE SPREAD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES AS WELL. AS SUCH THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED IS TIMING RAINFALL FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY. WHILE EACH INDIVIDUAL MODEL HAS SHOWN GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AMONGST THEMSELVES...I CONTINUE TO PREFER THE ECMWF MODEL DUE TO ITS STELLAR TRACK RECORD THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. THUS HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF FOR TIMING THE BEGINNING OF RAINFALL. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MONDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS ENERGY WILL LIKELY SLOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST AND TOWARD CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. AT THIS TIME...THE WETTEST PERIOD APPEARS TO BE LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN...THOUGH...WITH REGARDS TO WHEN PRECIP WILL EXIT. THE MED RANGE MODELS KEEP WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME...WITH SPECIFIC FEATURES VARYING IN LOCATION/TIMING. AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN PREFERRED DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY OF THIS PATTERNS EVOLUTION. HAVE STEPPED RAIN CHANCES DOWNWARD TO SLIGHT CHC BY WED AND CONTINUED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL LIKELY BE DRY TIME IN THE WED TO FRI TIME FRAME...BUT PINPOINTING WHEN IS PROBLEMATIC AT THIS JUNCTURE. WHAT WE CAN BE CONFIDENT IN IS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE STORM TRACKS OFFERED BY ALL MODELS KEEP THE REGION ON THE COOL/COLD SIDE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS SOME 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE...MAYBE MORE. LOW TEMPS SHOULD HOVER NEAR AVERAGE. NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH ANY FLAKES WITH THIS SYSTEM AS ALL MODEL VERTICAL PROFILES INDICATE A DECENT NOSE OF WAA AT THE LOW LEVEL JET. GAGAN && .AVIATION... FOR THE 06Z TAFS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NOW MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. WILL STILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 11Z AT BOTH TAF LOCATIONS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STORM SYSTEM MOVE INTO THE OZARKS. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN A BIT WITH LLWS AT THE JOPLIN TERMINAL TAPERING OFF AROUND 07Z. HATCH && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$
