Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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000 FXUS63 KSGF 052327 AFDSGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 527 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008 ...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION... .UPDATE... SUPERCELLS HAVE ERUPTED OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS ALONG A SURFACE DRY LINE/TROUGH NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR IN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. STORMS UP TO THIS POINT HAVE BEEN HAIL PRODUCERS...WITH A FEW REPORTS OF HAIL GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS. A FEW REPORTS OF STRAIGHT LINE WINDS GREATER THAN 60 MPH HAVE ALSO BEEN RECEIVED. NO REPORTS OF TORNADOES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED AS OF 5 PM CST. HOWEVER...STORMS ON NEIGHBORING KICT AND KINX RADARS HAVE SHOWN STRONG LOW LEVEL ROTATION. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA INDICATES THAT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS RAPIDLY INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA DUE IN LARGE PART TO A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. WINDS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH HAVE ALSO SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF BACKING. WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 50 KNOTS BY 03Z...WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR TORNADOES THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND PERHAPS FAR WESTERN MISSOURI. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THESE STORMS WILL HAVE TO INTERACT WITH. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES A CAP REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL SERVE TO QUICKLY ERODE THIS CAP. MLCAPES IN THE 400 TO 800 J/KG RANGE STILL APPEAR LIKELY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 71 BY 02Z. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SCATTERED SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WILL PUSH INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY 630 PM...AND INTO FAR WESTERN MISSOURI SHORTLY THEREAFTER. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...INCLUDING TORNADOES. A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR. LATER TONIGHT...THE STORMS WILL BECOME MORE LINEAR AS A COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE TROUGH. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BECOME THE MAIN THREAT...BUT STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS FAR EAST AS AN OSCEOLA TO CASSVILLE LINE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE STORMS CROSS THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT. SCHAUMANN && .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA SOMETIME IN THE MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. TONIGHT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CORN BELT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT...MAKING IT TO THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT...AS WELL AS ALONG A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR GREATER DETAIL ON THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST. SPEAKING OF WINDS...WE HAVE NOT MET WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA UP TO THIS POINT. WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLING THE WIND ADVISORY BY 4 PM. THURSDAY...THAT FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST OUT OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI IN THE MORNING. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA. WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING AS A DRY SLOT WORKS INTO THE AREA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAY THEN BRING MORE CLOUDINESS INTO THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES ARE A TOUGH CALL GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND COOLING LOW LEVELS. GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET. THURSDAY WILL AGAIN BE WINDY AS LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN RATHER TIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE EFFICIENTLY MIX OUT. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ONE MORE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL COME AROUND THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW AND DRIVE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO UP ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOVER AT OR BELOW ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS. UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE LOOKS PRETTY LIMITED SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION. THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S OVER MOST AREAS. EARLY NEXT WEEK...LONG WAVE CHARTS CONTINUE TO FAVOR DIGGING OF ENERGY OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ENERGY DIVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND EVENTUALLY EJECTING OUT TOWARDS THE OZARKS. STILL NOT A REAL GOOD SIGNAL FOR TIMING...BUT FEEL THAT SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WARM UPS AS LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. SCHAUMANN && .AVIATION... FOR THE 18Z KSGF/KJLN TAFS...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL AVIATION HAZARDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THESE STORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI...HOWEVER A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY MOVE INTO EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED CB IN THE KJLN TAF TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A TEMPO OR PREVAIL GROUP AT THIS TIME. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST A SQUALL LINE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AND WILL PUSH THROUGH THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...FIRST AT THE KJLN SITE THEN THE KSGF SITE. HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS ACTIVITY AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THIS OCCURRING. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND HAVE KEPT THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WIND SHEAR. WISE && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$
