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| Mild Wet Summer = Cold Wet Winter? |
| The National Weather Service in Tulsa has determined a summer that is a milder and wetter than
normal, as Tulsa has just experienced, does not necessarily mean the following winter will also be
colder and wetter than normal. Data from 1905 through 2004 were compiled to arrive at the conclusion.
�Summer temperatures and precipitation are apparently not good predictors for temperatures the following
winter,� said Nicole Kempf, a meteorologist with the Weather Service. |
| Kempf identified the 33 mildest summers (June, July, August) in Tulsa, then checked those against
what happened during the following winters (December, January, February). She found that only 10 mild
summers were followed by colder than normal winters. In 11 years the following winters were warmer than
normal, and 12 winters had normal temperatures. |
| Kempf also looked at precipitation data. She found that a wetter than normal summer in Tulsa was
followed by a wetter than normal winter only a third of the time. Past data revealed that following
a wetter than normal summer, 11 winters were also wetter than normal; 11 recorded normal precipitation;
and 11 had below normal precipitation. |
| �These data indicate that the average temperature and precipitation from June through August are
not completely reliable indicators of temperatures and precipitation averages for the following
winter,� said Kempf. �The atmosphere apparently has a rather short memory. What happened a few months
ago doesn�t appear to have much influence on what will happen in the future.� |
| The average temperature for June, July and August this year in Tulsa was 77.1 degrees, which is a
tie with 1920 for the 6th mildest summer in the last 100 years. In fact, this was the mildest summer
since 1967. This summer�s precipitation in Tulsa of 16.66 inches placed it as the 14th wettest summer
in the last 117 years. |
| Kempf�s report and data can be found at the web site of the Tulsa
National Weather Service Office under the climate section. |
| Month |
June |
July |
August |
Season |
Mildest Rank
(avg,departure) |
20th
(75.1, -2.9F) |
11th
(79.1, -4.4F) |
7th
(77.0, -5.2F ) |
T6th
(77.1, -3.7F) |
Wettest Rank
(total,departure) |
24th
(6.41, +1.69 in) |
8th
(8.63, +5.67 in) |
85th
(1.62, -1.23 in) |
14th
(16.66,+6.13 in) |
Hottest day,
by month in 2004 |
93 on June 14th |
98 on July 15th |
98 on Aug 3rd |
|
|
weather.gov 
National Weather Service Forecast Office
