Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGRR 071152
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
650 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(513 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008)
THE WARM WEATHER IS COMING TO AN END AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF
THE AREA TODAY. GRADUALLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
INTO THE WEEKEND. TODAY WILL FEATURE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...WITH
SOME MORNING FOG. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...AS
COOLER AIR MOVING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN GENERATES PRECIPITATION. THE
RAIN SHOWERS MAY MIX AT TIMES WITH SOME SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MAKING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(513 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008)
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
BAND OF CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS
PROGRESSING INTO EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. CLEARING IS
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN LOWER...WITH AREAS OF FOG FORMING.
FOG WILL BE THE FIRST CONCERN AND WILL BE MONITORED THIS MORNING. SO
FAR...FOG HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AT SOUTH HAVEN AND
HOLLAND. A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE DRY
SLOT MOVES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN.

850MB TEMPS WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAKE GENERATED
PRECIPITATION. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING. THE RAIN
MAY MIX AT TIMES WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AS
850MB TEMPS ARE PROGD TO BE NEAR -6 C (WHICH WILL PRODUCE DELTA T/S
NEAR 17/18 DEGREES). THE -12 TO -18 C LAYER BECOMES SATURATED VIA
BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS MODELS. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS OFF BOTH
MODELS DROP TO AROUND 1000 FT AS WELL. THE SREF P/TYPE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION...BUT THERE MAY BE
A MIX NONETHELESS.

THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION RIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM INTO SUNDAY. EVEN COLDER AIR FILTERS IN
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND
-8 C. A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL LIKELY ADD A BOOST TO THE RAIN AND SNOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IF THE SHORTWAVE COMES IN A BIT QUICKER (SATURDAY
NIGHT). DIURNAL AFFECTS THIS TIME OF YEAR TEND TO PUSH P/TYPE MORE
TOWARD RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. BEST CHANCE AT ANY ACCUMS WILL
BE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST GIVEN THE WARM LAKE BOUNDARY LAYER.
WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS AT 850MB/S WILL LIKELY PLACE THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES AND THEN EAST TOWARD HIGHWAY 131 AS THE
LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME ACCUMS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(513 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008)
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST FROM
JUST SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. WAVES TRAVELING AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING
WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION AND PULSES OF COLDER AIR TO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE ALL
SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
NUDGE IN. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTH OF THE AREA. FEEL CLOUD
COVER IN THE GRIDS IS SUFFICIENT AT THIS TIME. THE LOW TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR IN THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S. THE HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S MONDAY... WHICH IS A LITTLE COLDER THAN
NORMAL. THE HIGHS WILL SLOWLY WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY
THURSDAY... WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.MARINE...(513 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008)
WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE DRIFTS FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. WAVES
WILL BUILD INTO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS
MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY. WAVES SATURDAY NIGHT COULD APPROACH 10
FEET...AS WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS IN COLD AIR
ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(650 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008)
COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXITING THE EASTERN TAF SITES AT KLAN AND
KJXN. IN THE WEST...SOME FOG AS DEVELOPED IN AREAS THAT CLEARED
OVERNIGHT TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT THE FOG TO LIFT THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE BULK OF THE DAY. AN
UPPER LOW OFF TO THE WEST WILL MOVE TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN
TODAY...SPREADING CLOUDS INTO THE AREA TOWARD SUNSET AS WELL AS
COLDER AIR. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA BETWEEN 21Z AND
01Z THIS EVENING. THE COLD AIR MOVING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL
GENERATE RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT OFF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY AT KMKG AND
KGRR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(513 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008)
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE ON THE LIGHT SIDE THE LAST 12-18
HOURS...GENERALLY BETWEEN A TRACE AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. WITH
RIVERS ALL WITHIN BANK...THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE
AFFECT. PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE LAKE
GENERATED AND NOT VERY HEAVY. SO...HYDRO CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY FROM
ST JOSEPH TO MANISTEE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS:     DUKE
SHORT TERM:   DUKE
LONG TERM:    IOD
MARINE:       DUKE
AVIATION:     DUKE
HYDROLOGY:    DUKE








  • NOAA National Weather Service
  • Green Bay, WI Weather Forecast Office
  • 2485 South Point Road
  • Green Bay, WI 54313-5522
  • 920-494-2363
  • Page Author: GRB Webmaster
  • Web Master's E-mail: w-grb.webmaster@noaa.gov
  • Page last modified: Aug 26th, 2008 18:04 UTC
USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.