Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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000 FGUS75 KBOU 262212 ESFBOU COC001-031-035-059-069-123-050000- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 412 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2008 ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED NEAR THE END OF THE EACH MONTH. THESE OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED IN ADDITION TO THE 5 DAY RIVER FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS ARE IN FLOOD OR FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THAT A LOCATION ON A STREAM COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 3 MONTHS. FOR EXAMPLE: THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT DENVER HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 11 FEET. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE STREAM WILL RISE ABOVE 4.4 FEET IN THE NEXT 3 MONTHS. CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES IN FEET AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID SEPTEMBER 01 - NOVEMBER 30 2008 LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% ----------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- SOUTH PLATTE RIVER DENVER 11 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.8 HENDERSON 10 5.2 5.2 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.8 6.3 KERSEY 10 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.6 SOUTH PLATTE 7 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 PLUM CREEK SEDALIA 8 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 BEAR CREEK MORRISON 9 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.5 SHERIDAN 8 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.4 CLEAR CREEK GOLDEN 10 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 DERBY 9 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.3 CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER FORT COLLINS 9NW 7.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 FORT COLLINS 12 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.9 GREELEY 9 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.2 THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE. VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/BOU FOR MORE WEATHER AND RIVER INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS. $$ TH