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Grain: World Markets and Trade
Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series
FG 11-02
November 2002
Former Soviet Union Wheat Exports Surge
With a second consecutive bumper wheat crop, the FSU (Ukraine, Russia, and Kazakstan) is expected to export 19 million tons this year compared to less than 5 million tons just two years ago. Early season shipments of this low-priced wheat have been exceptionally large due to tight supplies and high prices in most of the major traditional exporting countries. Less competition from Canada and Australia, in particular, will provide additional opportunities for FSU sales to North Africa and the Middle East. These two regions have accounted for more than 40 percent of FSU exports over the past 12 months.
The EU has been the top single market for FSU supplies spurred by the absence of an import duty, which has allowed FSU wheat to enter at prices lower than internal wheat prices. Shipments to Spain and Italy have soared over the past five months in anticipation of a change in the import regime. This regime change, announced November 12, will limit EU imports of low and medium protein wheat to less than 3 million tons. Its effect will likely be to redirect even more FSU supplies to North African and Middle Eastern markets.
Complete Grain Report in PDF: Text and Tables
This report incorporates historical revisions in USDA’s estimates of China’s domestic consumption and stocks of wheat. A brief discussion of the revisions can be found in the Wheat Situation and Outlook of this publication. Spreadsheets containing the old and revised Chinese wheat supply and demand balances and world wheat totals before and after the revisions can be found below. The new world wheat totals that incorporate the Chinese revisions also include changes from this month’s lockup and therefore match the world wheat tables contained in this circular.
[Excel file] [PDF]
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Data in this report is available in both Adobe Acrobat and Lotus 123 formats. You may need to Get the Adobe Acrobat Reader. |
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