June 2003 Edition:

U.S. 2002/03 Exports Forecast at Record               11.4 million Bales

U.S. exports were strong in the third quarter of the marketing year and remain strong in the first month of the fourth quarter. The strong third quarter and the even stronger fourth quarter, as compared to last year, is expected to push exports to a record 11.4 million bales. At the mid-point of the year accumulated exports in 2002/03 lagged nearly 685,000 bales (480 lbs) behind 2001/02 at the same time, 4.49 million bales vs. 5.07 million bales. However, by week 42, the week ending May 22, 2002/03, accumulated exports were slightly ahead of the 2001/02 level. This means that during the third quarter of 2002/03 weekly exports were on average 17 percent or 43,000 bales higher than during the same period in 2001/02. During the first 4 weeks of the fourth quarter weekly exports were more than 30 percent above year ago levels. Outstanding sales at the mid-point of the year were were nearly 1 million bales behind last year. However, during the second half of the year weekly net sales have averaged nearly double those of last year in the same period last year and currently outstanding sales are above last year's level. To reach the forecast of 11.4 million bales, exports will have to average 218,500 bales per week for the remaining eight weeks of the year. Exports during the last eight weeks of 2001/02 averaged 183,100 bales.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

U.S. Cotton Outlook
World Cotton Outlook
Cotton Prices
U.S. Cotton Highlights

Most statistical tables contained in this circular may be viewed in Adobe Acrobat format ® (.pdf).

Tables

• Table 1: World Cotton Supply, Use and Trade, 1997/98-2002/2003 (1,000 metric tons) {.pdf}
• Table 2: World Cotton Supply, Use and Trade, 1997/98-2002/2003 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}
• Table 3: FY 2002 GSM-102 and Supplier Credit Programs {.pdf}
• Table 4: Area, Yield, and Production by Country 2001/2002-2002/2003 {.pdf}
• Table 5: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2002/2003 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}
• Table 5-A: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2002/2003 (1,000 metric tons) {.pdf}
• Table 6: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2002/2003 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}
• Table 6-A: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country, 2002/2003 (1,000 metric tons) {.pdf}
• Table 7: Export Sales Summary {.pdf}
• Table 8: Northern European Cotton and Adjusted World Price {.pdf}
• Table 9: World Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization {.pdf}
• Table 10: United States Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization {.pdf}
• Table 11: Foreign Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization {.pdf}
• Table 12: New Independent States Cotton Supply and Demand, MY 1991/92-2002/2003 {.pdf}
• Table 13:Summary of Changes 2000/02-2002/2003 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}
• Supplement A: Historical Changes for Argentina  {.pdf}

Last modified: Tuesday, August 30, 2005