May 2003 Edition:

World Cotton Use Forecast Above Production in 2003/04

With cotton prices relatively favorable during Northern Hemisphere planting season, world cotton production is expected to increase almost ten percent from last year to 96.5 million bales in the marketing year beginning August 2003. However, rebounding production is not expected to overshoot world consumption, currently forecast to grow just over one percent to 99 million bales. World cotton consumption growth is expected to slow from the impressive 3.5-percent growth rate witnessed in marketing year 2002/03. The slowdown would reflect a return towards the historical relationship with economic and population growth rates as well as higher cotton prices, both in absolute terms and relative to other textile fiber prices. China will remain the major driver of world cotton consumption growth and is expected to increase its share of the world total. The downward trend in U.S. domestic use will continue, and total consumption in the rest of the world excluding China will grow slightly. Cotton moving in international trade is forecast higher next year at 31 million bales, due to tight foreign stocks and the persistence of large exportable supplies in the United States.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

U.S. Cotton Outlook
World Cotton Outlook
Cotton Prices
U.S. Cotton Highlights

Most statistical tables contained in this circular may be viewed in Adobe Acrobat format ® (.pdf).

Tables

• Table 1: World Cotton Supply, Use and Trade, 1997/98-2002/2003 (1,000 metric tons) {.pdf}
• Table 2: World Cotton Supply, Use and Trade, 1997/98-2002/2003 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}
• Table 3: FY 2002 GSM-102 and Supplier Credit Programs {.pdf}
• Table 4: Area, Yield, and Production by Country 2001/2002-2002/2003 {.pdf}
• Table 5: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2002/2003 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}
• Table 5-A: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2002/2003 (1,000 metric tons) {.pdf}
• Table 6: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2002/2003 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}
• Table 6-A: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country, 2002/2003 (1,000 metric tons) {.pdf}
• Table 7: Export Sales Summary {.pdf}
• Table 8: Northern European Cotton and Adjusted World Price {.pdf}
• Table 9: World Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization {.pdf}
• Table 10: United States Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization {.pdf}
• Table 11: Foreign Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization {.pdf}
• Table 12: New Independent States Cotton Supply and Demand, MY 1991/92-2002/2003 {.pdf}
• Table 13:Summary of Changes 2000/02-2002/2003 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}

Last modified: Tuesday, August 30, 2005