Cotton: World Markets and Trade (November 2002)

December 2002 Edition:

China's Consumption Forecast Grows Despite
Stagnant World Demand

Graph showing changes in 2002/03 consumption forecast, highlighting continued upward revisions for China

The December forecast of 2002/03 world consumption is 96.4 million bales, up 203,000 bales, or less than one quarter of one percent from the July forecast. Despite the generally stable view on total consumption, shifts have been seen between countries. The 2002/03 consumption forecast for China has increased 1.25 million bales from the initial July forecast and now stands at 27.0 million bales or 28 percent of the world total. The only other major consuming countries with consumption over 1.0 million bales that have seen increases are Turkey and Taiwan. India, Japan, Russia, Thailand, Uzbekistan and Pakistan’s forecasts are unchanged from July while all other major consuming countries have seen decreases in their forecasts for 2002/03.

The forecast for world production has decreased by 2.5 million balessince July as poor weather conditions reduced prospects in several countries, including the United States. The continued drought in Australia dramatically reduced the forecast for the 2002/03 Australian crop from 2.9 million bales to 1.5 million. China’s production is up 1.0 million bales as both forecasted area and yield have increased. Trade levels are down slightly due to lower demand in importing counties, such as Indonesia and Korea, and lower production in exporting counties, such as the United States, Australia, Egypt, Greece, and FZA.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

U.S. Cotton Outlook
World Cotton Outlook
Cotton Prices
U.S. Cotton Highlights

Special Feature: Uzbekistan Trip Report.pdf

Most statistical tables contained in this circular may be viewed in Adobe Acrobat format ® (.pdf).

Tables

Table 1: World Cotton Supply, Use and Trade, 1997/98-2002/2003 (1,000 metric tons) {.pdf}
Table 2: World Cotton Supply, Use and Trade, 1997/98-2002/2003 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}
Table 3: FY 2002 GSM-102 and Supplier Credit Programs {.pdf}
Table 4: Area, Yield, and Production by Country 2001/2002-2002/2003 {.pdf}
Table 5: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2002/2003 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}
Table 5-A: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2002/2003 (1,000 metric tons) {.pdf}
Table 6: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2002/2003 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}
Table 6-A: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country, 2002/2003 (1,000 metric tons) {.pdf}
Table 7: Export Sales Summary {.pdf}
Table 8: Northern European Cotton and Adjusted World Price {.pdf}
Table 9: World Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization {.pdf}
Table 10: United States Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization {.pdf}
Table 11: Foreign Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization {.pdf}
Table 12: New Independent States Cotton Supply and Demand, MY 1991/92-2002/2003 {.pdf}
Table 13:Summary of Changes 2000/01-2002/2003 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}

	Most statistical tables are available in Adobe Acrobat and Lotus version 3 format. You may need to GET the Acrobat reader.
Download the trade tables in Lotus 123 version 3 format. Please note that some versions of Netscape Navigator will change the filename extension; if this happens, you MUST rename the file to .wk3 to access it.

Last modified: Tuesday, August 30, 2005