Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
000 FXUS65 KPUB 232114 AFDPUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 314 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2008 .SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW) .CURRENTLY...THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE TIMING OF THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS LOW AND HAS IT EXITING EASTERN COLORADO BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS IN EASTERN COLORADO FOR THE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS DISSIPATING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE DECREASE IN WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. WITH THE INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THE WINDS BEGIN TO HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. TONIGHT...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD AGAIN THIS EVENING...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. THE AIR IS STILL TOO DRY FOR ANY FOG OR STRATUS TO FORM TOMORROW MORNING. TOMORROW...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OVER COLORADO THE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND THE TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND. TERRAIN INFLUENCES WILL DOMINATE THE WIND REGIME DURING THE DAYTIME. THE WINDS ON THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO HAVE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM... (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) DRY NWRLY FLOW WL CONTINUE OVR THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER SAT THAN THEY WILL BE ON FRI. A STRONG UPR TROF WL BE MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA SUN AND IS EXPECTED TO SEND A FRONT INTO SERN CO. THE 18Z RUN OF THE NAM IS LATER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE 12Z RUN...BRINGING IT INTO SERN CO DURING THE AFTERNOON NOW. THUS MAX TEMPS FOR SUN WL BE A BIT CHALLENGING. THE NAM KEEPS THE AREA DRY SUN AND SUN NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IN SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL MSTR AND PCPN OVR SRN PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS AND THE SERN FOOTHILLS/MTS SUN NIGHT. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY...WL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...WHICH WL ALSO BLEND WITH SURROUNDING AREAS. MON AN UPR RIDGE WL BE CENTERED ALONG THE AZ AND NM BORDER WITH WEST TO NW FLOW OVR THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS OVR ERN AREAS ON MON SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN ON SUN IN THE WAKE OF THAT FRONT. THE UPR RIDGE WL BE THE MAIN WEA FEATURE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA THRU WED...KEEPING THE WEA DRY AND TEMPS WL WARM A LITTLE FOR TUE AND WED. THE RIDGE SHIFTS E FOR THU. THE ECMWF HAS A SHRTWV TROF MOVING ACRS THE STATE THU BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PCPN...WHILE THE GFS HAS A LESS SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV POSSIBLY BRINING SOME PCPN TO THE WRN AREAS. && .AVIATION...GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CEASE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DISSIPATES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 14/28
