[top]
000
FXUS65 KABQ 200259 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
859 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC
80 ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDED IN THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE TONIGHT...AS THIS SHORTWAVE SLOWLY
SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO ADJUSTED THE WIND
FORECAST A BIT IN CENTRAL AREAS...TO MATCH RESENT WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS. 44
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
251 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2008...FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY
ACROSS THE STATE AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINES
WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PROVIDED BY A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FOR
THE MOST PART THE STORMS HAVE BEEN BEHAVING THEMSELVES BUT I WOULD
NOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE.
GIVEN THE EVOLVING WEATHER PATTERN AND APPROACHING SYNOPTIC SCALE
TROUGH...I WOULD EXPECT THE FOCUS OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TOMORROW...WITH A CONTINUED EMPHASIS ON
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE NEXT INFLUENTIAL WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BE THE TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SERVE TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND USHER IN
SOME DRIER AIR LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE LIMITED
TO THE NORTHERN THIRD WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED TO SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY...SOUTHWEST
BREEZES SHOULD KICK IN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. BREEZES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE THEN GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK IN DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AND MOSTLY BENIGN
WEATHER ON TAP.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DISSIPATE THRU 04Z...WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER STORMS. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM STORMS WILL BE GUSTY OUTLFOW WINDS. EXPECTD MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND IN THE E PLAINS OVERNIGHT WHILE MOST AREAS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP
IN THE VALLEYS OF THE NORTHERN MTNS OVERNIGHT WITH IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE
THRU 13Z. ISOLD GUSTY STORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THRU EARLY EVENING WILL PRODUCE MAINLY
GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF WETTING RAINS...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES. WIDESPREAD VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES ARE LIKELY
AGAIN OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A FEW MORE STORMS WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SANGRES. MIN RH VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE WEST TO AROUND 30 IN THE EAST. THE WEAK
RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WILL BREAK DOWN THRU MONDAY
AS A BROAD TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN REPONSE TO
1005MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING OVER SE COLORADO AHEAD OF THE
WEST COAST TROUGH. MIN RH VALUES FALL TO AROUND 20 PCT AREAWIDE IN
THIS PATTERN WITH RECOVERIES TRENDING INTO THE 50-60 PCT RANGE. THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THE STATE ON TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS AND AFTERNOON BREEZES. ANOTHER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING
OVER THE STATE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS AND ISOLD
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
GUYER
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
44
000
FXUS65 KABQ 192102 CCA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
251 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE STATE AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINES WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PROVIDED BY A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FOR THE MOST PART THE
STORMS HAVE BEEN BEHAVING THEMSELVES BUT I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A
SEVERE STORM OR TWO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE.
GIVEN THE EVOLVING WEATHER PATTERN AND APPROACHING SYNOPTIC SCALE
TROUGH...I WOULD EXPECT THE FOCUS OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TOMORROW...WITH A CONTINUED EMPHASIS ON
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE NEXT INFLUENTIAL WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BE THE TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SERVE TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND USHER IN
SOME DRIER AIR LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE LIMITED
TO THE NORTHERN THIRD WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED TO SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY...SOUTHWEST
BREEZES SHOULD KICK IN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. BREEZES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE THEN GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK IN DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AND MOSTLY BENIGN
WEATHER ON TAP.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DISSIPATE THRU 04Z...WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER STORMS. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM STORMS WILL BE GUSTY OUTLFOW WINDS. EXPECTD MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND IN THE E PLAINS OVERNIGHT WHILE MOST AREAS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP
IN THE VALLEYS OF THE NORTHERN MTNS OVERNIGHT WITH IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE
THRU 13Z. ISOLD GUSTY STORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THRU EARLY EVENING WILL PRODUCE MAINLY
GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF WETTING RAINS...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES. WIDESPREAD VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES ARE LIKELY
AGAIN OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A FEW MORE STORMS WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SANGRES. MIN RH VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE WEST TO AROUND 30 IN THE EAST. THE WEAK
RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WILL BREAK DOWN THRU MONDAY
AS A BROAD TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN REPONSE TO
1005MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING OVER SE COLORADO AHEAD OF THE
WEST COAST TROUGH. MIN RH VALUES FALL TO AROUND 20 PCT AREAWIDE IN
THIS PATTERN WITH RECOVERIES TRENDING INTO THE 50-60 PCT RANGE. THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THE STATE ON TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS AND AFTERNOON BREEZES. ANOTHER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING
OVER THE STATE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS AND ISOLD
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
GUYER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 50 81 51 82 / 10 5 10 5
GALLUP.......................... 43 79 44 78 / 10 5 5 5
GRANTS.......................... 43 79 44 79 / 10 5 5 5
GLENWOOD........................ 54 85 52 85 / 10 5 5 5
CHAMA........................... 37 71 39 71 / 10 20 20 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 46 73 48 75 / 10 10 10 5
RED RIVER....................... 36 65 35 66 / 20 20 20 10
TAOS............................ 42 73 43 75 / 10 10 20 10
SANTA FE........................ 47 75 48 77 / 10 10 10 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 48 77 49 79 / 10 10 10 5
ESPANOLA........................ 46 80 46 82 / 10 10 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 55 80 56 83 / 10 5 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 53 81 51 83 / 10 5 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 52 78 53 81 / 10 5 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 52 82 54 83 / 10 5 5 5
SOCORRO......................... 51 83 50 84 / 10 5 5 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 45 72 44 74 / 10 10 10 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 48 77 47 79 / 10 10 5 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 51 80 50 81 / 10 5 5 5
RUIDOSO......................... 46 72 44 74 / 20 10 5 5
RATON........................... 43 76 44 79 / 20 5 10 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 44 73 45 77 / 20 10 10 10
ROY............................. 50 76 51 77 / 20 0 10 10
CLAYTON......................... 52 79 52 81 / 20 5 5 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 51 83 51 84 / 20 5 5 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 54 83 56 86 / 20 5 5 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 53 83 55 84 / 20 5 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 54 81 55 83 / 20 5 0 0
PORTALES........................ 54 82 55 85 / 20 5 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 56 85 57 88 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
03/GUYER
000
FXUS65 KABQ 192051
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
251 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE STATE AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINES WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PROVIDED BY A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FOR THE MOST PART THE
STORMS HAVE BEEN BEHAVING THEMSELVES BUT I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A
SEVERE STORM OR TWO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE.
GIVEN THE EVOLVING WEATHER PATTERN AND APPROACHING SYNOPTIC SCALE
TROUGH...I WOULD EXPECT THE FOCUS OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TOMORROW...WITH A CONTINUED EMPHASIS ON
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE NEXT INFLUENTIAL WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BE THE TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SERVE TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND USHER IN
SOME DRIER AIR LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE LIMITED
TO THE NORTHERN THIRD WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED TO SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY...SOUTHWEST
BREEZES SHOULD KICK IN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. BREEZES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE THEN GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK IN DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AND MOSTLY BENIGN
WEATHER ON TAP.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DISSIPATE THRU 04Z...WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER STORMS. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM STORMS WILL BE GUSTY OUTLFOW WINDS. EXPECTD MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND IN THE E PLAINS OVERNIGHT WHILE MOST AREAS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP
IN THE VALLEYS OF THE NORTHERN MTNS OVERNIGHT WITH IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE
THRU 13Z. ISOLD GUSTY STORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. 43
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THRU EARLY EVENING WILL PRODUCE MAINLY
GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF WETTING RAINS...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES. WIDESPREAD VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES ARE LIKELY
AGAIN OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A FEW MORE STORMS WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SANGRES. MIN RH VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE WEST TO AROUND 30 IN THE EAST. THE WEAK
RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WILL BREAK DOWN THRU MONDAY
AS A BROAD TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN REPONSE TO
1005MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING OVER SE COLORADO AHEAD OF THE
WEST COAST TROUGH. MIN RH VALUES FALL TO AROUND 20 PCT AREAWIDE IN
THIS PATTERN WITH RECOVERIES TRENDING INTO THE 50-60 PCT RANGE. THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THE STATE ON TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS AND AFTERNOON BREEZES. ANOTHER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING
OVER THE STATE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS AND ISOLD
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 50 81 51 82 / 10 5 10 5
GALLUP.......................... 43 79 44 78 / 10 5 5 5
GRANTS.......................... 43 79 44 79 / 10 5 5 5
GLENWOOD........................ 54 85 52 85 / 10 5 5 5
CHAMA........................... 37 71 39 71 / 10 20 20 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 46 73 48 75 / 10 10 10 5
RED RIVER....................... 36 65 35 66 / 20 20 20 10
TAOS............................ 42 73 43 75 / 10 10 20 10
SANTA FE........................ 47 75 48 77 / 10 10 10 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 48 77 49 79 / 10 10 10 5
ESPANOLA........................ 46 80 46 82 / 10 10 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 55 80 56 83 / 10 5 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 53 81 51 83 / 10 5 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 52 78 53 81 / 10 5 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 52 82 54 83 / 10 5 5 5
SOCORRO......................... 51 83 50 84 / 10 5 5 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 45 72 44 74 / 10 10 10 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 48 77 47 79 / 10 10 5 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 51 80 50 81 / 10 5 5 5
RUIDOSO......................... 46 72 44 74 / 20 10 5 5
RATON........................... 43 76 44 79 / 20 5 10 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 44 73 45 77 / 20 10 10 10
ROY............................. 50 76 51 77 / 20 0 10 10
CLAYTON......................... 52 79 52 81 / 20 5 5 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 51 83 51 84 / 20 5 5 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 54 83 56 86 / 20 5 5 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 53 83 55 84 / 20 5 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 54 81 55 83 / 20 5 0 0
PORTALES........................ 54 82 55 85 / 20 5 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 56 85 57 88 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
03/43
000
FXUS65 KABQ 191759 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1159 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.UPDATE...UPDATED GRIDS TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE. PASSING SHORTWAVE IS INTERACTING
WITH MODEST REMNANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE INCREASED CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO. TEXT PRODUCTS TO BE UPDATED
SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...258 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2008...
CURRENTLY...CHARTS ALOFT SHOVING RIDGE PEAK FROM OF GULF OF
CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH 50 KT
JET STREAK ON DOWNSTREAM LIMB OF THE RIDGE CROSSING OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. JET STREAK RIGHT ENTRANCE DYNAMICS ALONG WITH MODEST
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AT 500 MB HAVE BEEN ENOUGH TO KEEP
SPOTTY CONVECTION GOING OVERNIGHT...AS A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DOT
THE SURFACE CHART NEAR SANTA ROSA. OTHERWISE...PERSISTENT TROUGH
OVER THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WORKING WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE BULK OF THE NATION CONTINUES SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE STATE.
MODELS...REASONABLY GOOD CONSENSUS TRANSLATING RIDGE EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE SWINGS INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ABOUT CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE LOWER YUKON
VALLEY IN WESTERN ALASKA. SHORTWAVE WILL SHEAR RAPIDLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY...WITH ENOUGH
ENERGY SCRAPING THE NORTHERN BORDER OF NEW MEXICO TO ENHANCE AND
PROLONG SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. NEXT UPSTREAM WEATHER SYSTEM COMING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WITH TROUGH BASE SLIDING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT TENDS TOWARD ZONAL FROM MIDWEEK
ONWARD...WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER NEW MEXICO ONCE AGAIN BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...RIDGE PEAK LYING FROM EL PASO TO
CHAMA BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES ON
DOWNSTREAM LIMB WILL CENTER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS UP OVER
THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND ADJACENT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MORE STORMS OVER FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS INITIATING
ON SOUTH FACING SLOPES. WITH GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST NEAR
THE ARIZONA LINE...INITIATED STORMS WILL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO WORK WITH. TEMPERATURES RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND WEST...AND PRETTY MUCH AT NORMAL
ELSEWHERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN EAST TO ROUGHLY A RATON TO ROSWELL LINE OVERNIGHT
WILL WEAKEN BY SUNRISE AS 300 MB JET STREAK PROPAGATES WELL CLEAR
OF THE STATE.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...RIDGE ALOFT FLOPPING INTO
THE POSITIVE ON SATURDAY...EXTENDING FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA
NORTHEAST TO WESTERN KANSAS...AS TROUGH ALOFT SHEARS OFF THE RIDGE
PEAK IN A RAPID EASTWARD CRUISE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
ENOUGH DYNAMICS FROM THIS MAY CREASE THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE
STATE...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS BECOMING SCATTERED ON SATURDAY OVER
THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS SURFACE WINDS
BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECTING A FAIRLY LONG LIVED SHOWER
PACKAGE FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS DIFFLUENT ZONE ON LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD AS THE TROUGH BASE MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
INTO SUNDAY...ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP ALOFT DURING THE DAY...AND
LAST OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE SANGRE
DE CRISTOS EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS BORDER AS TROUGH ENERGY
PROPAGATES EASTWARD. NOT MUCH TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH...WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE
REGIME.
INTO MONDAY...NEXT TROUGH BASE DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
DURING THE DAY TO BACK FLOW ALOFT TO SOUTHWEST...AND ISOLATED SHOWER
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL
EXPAND BROADLY TO MUCH OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO FROM THE ARIZONA
BORDER ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE START OF THE
WORK WEEK.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS MOST AREAS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL NM
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND. BUT AGAIN TODAY AS ON THURSDAY OVER
AND IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 19Z MAY PRODUCE SOME VERY LOCAL MVFR
CEILINGS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOWS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 40
KNOTS. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD END BEFORE 04Z.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z. 43
FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
OVER AND A LITTLE WAYS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF HIGH TERRAIN. MORE
SHOULD BE DRY THAN WET. RH RECOVERIES ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS WILL BE GOOD TO VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT...WITH FAIR TO GOOD
RECOVERIES ELSEWHERE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO
BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT ENOUGH MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO INTERACT WITH HEATING AND THE VARIED
TERRAIN TO HELP GENERATE THE HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS. A
COUPLE OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES BETWEEN SUNDAY AND TUESDAY PRODUCING SOME
INCREASE IN WINDS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGHER TERRAIN
DURING THAT PERIOD. AT THIS TIME WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS UPDATE...
FARMINGTON...................... 82 50 81 50 / 10 0 0 5
GALLUP.......................... 78 42 80 43 / 20 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 78 42 80 44 / 20 0 5 5
GLENWOOD........................ 82 52 84 50 / 20 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 71 38 73 38 / 20 5 10 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 73 47 72 47 / 20 5 10 10
RED RIVER....................... 66 35 67 35 / 20 10 20 30
TAOS............................ 75 42 73 41 / 20 5 5 20
SANTA FE........................ 76 47 75 47 / 20 5 10 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 78 48 77 48 / 10 5 5 10
ESPANOLA........................ 80 44 80 44 / 10 5 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 81 56 79 57 / 10 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 80 51 81 50 / 10 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 77 51 76 52 / 10 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 81 51 81 53 / 10 0 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 83 51 83 50 / 20 5 5 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 73 43 71 43 / 10 5 5 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 77 47 77 45 / 10 5 10 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 78 50 80 49 / 20 5 5 0
RUIDOSO......................... 72 44 72 43 / 20 5 10 5
RATON........................... 76 43 75 44 / 20 5 5 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 72 44 72 45 / 30 5 10 10
ROY............................. 75 49 76 51 / 30 5 5 10
CLAYTON......................... 78 52 79 52 / 20 5 5 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 81 50 82 52 / 20 5 5 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 83 54 83 56 / 20 5 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 82 52 83 53 / 20 5 5 0
CLOVIS.......................... 79 54 80 55 / 20 0 5 0
PORTALES........................ 81 53 82 54 / 10 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 83 56 85 56 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KABQ 190858
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
258 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...CHARTS ALOFT SHOVING RIDGE PEAK FROM OF GULF OF
CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH 50 KT
JET STREAK ON DOWNSTREAM LIMB OF THE RIDGE CROSSING OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. JET STREAK RIGHT ENTRANCE DYNAMICS ALONG WITH MODEST
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AT 500 MB HAVE BEEN ENOUGH TO KEEP
SPOTTY CONVECTION GOING OVERNIGHT...AS A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DOT
THE SURFACE CHART NEAR SANTA ROSA. OTHERWISE...PERSISTENT TROUGH
OVER THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WORKING WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE BULK OF THE NATION CONTINUES SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE STATE.
MODELS...REASONABLY GOOD CONSENSUS TRANSLATING RIDGE EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE SWINGS INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ABOUT CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE LOWER YUKON
VALLEY IN WESTERN ALASKA. SHORTWAVE WILL SHEAR RAPIDLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY...WITH ENOUGH
ENERGY SCRAPING THE NORTHERN BORDER OF NEW MEXICO TO ENHANCE AND
PROLONG SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. NEXT UPSTREAM WEATHER SYSTEM COMING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WITH TROUGH BASE SLIDING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT TENDS TOWARD ZONAL FROM MIDWEEK
ONWARD...WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER NEW MEXICO ONCE AGAIN BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...RIDGE PEAK LYING FROM EL PASO TO
CHAMA BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES ON
DOWNSTREAM LIMB WILL CENTER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS UP OVER
THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND ADJACENT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MORE STORMS OVER FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS INITIATING
ON SOUTH FACING SLOPES. WITH GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST NEAR
THE ARIZONA LINE...INITIATED STORMS WILL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO WORK WITH. TEMPERATURES RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND WEST...AND PRETTY MUCH AT NORMAL
ELSEWHERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN EAST TO ROUGHLY A RATON TO ROSWELL LINE OVERNIGHT
WILL WEAKEN BY SUNRISE AS 300 MB JET STREAK PROPAGATES WELL CLEAR
OF THE STATE.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...RIDGE ALOFT FLOPPING INTO
THE POSITIVE ON SATURDAY...EXTENDING FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA
NORTHEAST TO WESTERN KANSAS...AS TROUGH ALOFT SHEARS OFF THE RIDGE
PEAK IN A RAPID EASTWARD CRUISE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
ENOUGH DYNAMICS FROM THIS MAY CREASE THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE
STATE...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS BECOMING SCATTERED ON SATURDAY OVER
THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS SURFACE WINDS
BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECTING A FAIRLY LONG LIVED SHOWER
PACKAGE FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS DIFFLUENT ZONE ON LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD AS THE TROUGH BASE MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
INTO SUNDAY...ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP ALOFT DURING THE DAY...AND
LAST OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE SANGRE
DE CRISTOS EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS BORDER AS TROUGH ENERGY
PROPAGATES EASTWARD. NOT MUCH TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH...WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE
REGIME.
INTO MONDAY...NEXT TROUGH BASE DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
DURING THE DAY TO BACK FLOW ALOFT TO SOUTHWEST...AND ISOLATED SHOWER
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL
EXPAND BROADLY TO MUCH OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO FROM THE ARIZONA
BORDER ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE START OF THE
WORK WEEK.
SHY
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS MOST AREAS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL NM THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND BEYOND. BUT AGAIN TODAY AS ON THURSDAY OVER AND
IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER 19Z MAY PRODUCE SOME VERY LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY
OUTFLOWS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 KNOTS. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD
END BEFORE 04Z.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z. 43
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER AND A LITTLE
WAYS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF HIGH TERRAIN. MORE SHOULD BE DRY THAN
WET. RH RECOVERIES ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL BE GOOD TO
VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT...WITH FAIR TO GOOD RECOVERIES ELSEWHERE. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...BUT ENOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
TO INTERACT WITH HEATING AND THE VARIED TERRAIN TO HELP GENERATE THE
HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS. A COUPLE OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES BETWEEN SUNDAY
AND TUESDAY PRODUCING SOME INCREASE IN WINDS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH
AND HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THAT PERIOD. AT THIS TIME WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 82 50 81 50 / 0 0 0 5
GALLUP.......................... 78 42 80 43 / 5 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 78 42 80 44 / 5 0 5 5
GLENWOOD........................ 82 52 84 50 / 5 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 71 38 73 38 / 5 5 10 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 73 47 72 47 / 5 5 10 10
RED RIVER....................... 66 35 67 35 / 10 10 20 30
TAOS............................ 75 42 73 41 / 5 5 5 20
SANTA FE........................ 76 47 75 47 / 5 5 10 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 78 48 77 48 / 0 5 5 10
ESPANOLA........................ 80 44 80 44 / 0 5 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 81 56 79 57 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 80 51 81 50 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 77 51 76 52 / 0 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 81 51 81 53 / 0 0 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 83 51 83 50 / 0 5 5 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 73 43 71 43 / 0 5 5 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 77 47 77 45 / 0 5 10 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 78 50 80 49 / 0 5 5 0
RUIDOSO......................... 72 44 72 43 / 10 5 10 5
RATON........................... 76 43 75 44 / 10 5 5 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 72 44 72 45 / 10 5 10 10
ROY............................. 75 49 76 51 / 10 5 5 10
CLAYTON......................... 78 52 79 52 / 10 5 5 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 81 50 82 52 / 10 5 5 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 83 54 83 56 / 10 5 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 82 52 83 53 / 5 5 5 0
CLOVIS.......................... 79 54 80 55 / 5 0 5 0
PORTALES........................ 81 53 82 54 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 83 56 85 56 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHY/43
000
FXUS65 KABQ 190329 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
929 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2008
.UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE SURVIVED PAST SUNSET IN RIGHT
REAR QUAD OF JET AND NEAREST EXITING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MOST OF
THIS WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT BUT SOME COULD PERSIST
LATER...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST CLOSEST TO DYNAMICS AS PER 00Z NAM.
MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...KD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...254 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2008...
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE...IN RESPONSE TO MODEST
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND A 50-60 KNOT 400-250MB JET. RUC13/NAM12
SHORT-TERM ANALYSIS SHOWS STORMS WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
BY 03Z LEAVING BEHIND SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THRU TONIGHT. FRIDAY
WILL BE LESS ACTIVE THAN TODAY OVERALL AS THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA. THE SANGRES/NE PLAINS STILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP FRIDAY AS THE REAR QUADRANT OF TODAYS JET LINGERS OVER THE
NE PLAINS.
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY POSITIONED OFF THE CENTRAL CA COASTLINE GRAZES
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY ISOLD
SHOWERS/STORMS AND SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES. ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER MORE BROAD
TROUGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY MIDWEEK. MAX/MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO THRU THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
GUYER
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS MOST AREAS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL NM THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND BEYOND. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER AND TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE SOME LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS...
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOWS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. LOOK FOR
CONVECTION TO END BY O3Z...HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL AREAS OF VALLEY
FOG ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY...FEWER AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...WITH
ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS LIMITED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO AFTER 18Z AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
MOST AREAS.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. 05
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY PRODUCE GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER AND TO THE
EAST OF HIGH TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS WILL BE EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT...WITH GOOD TO VERY GOOD RECOVERIES
ELSEWHERE. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH A REDUCTION IN THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING. STILL...EXPECT ISOLATED
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN
AND NORTHERN NM. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WITH DRYING ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND STORMS LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE ROCKIES SUNDAY
PRODUCING AN INCREASE IN WINDS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGHER TERRAIN. AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
05
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS UPDATE...
FARMINGTON...................... 46 80 48 81 / 5 5 5 5
GALLUP.......................... 39 78 39 80 / 5 5 5 5
GRANTS.......................... 41 79 41 81 / 5 5 5 5
GLENWOOD........................ 46 80 47 83 / 5 5 5 0
CHAMA........................... 35 72 38 74 / 5 10 10 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 46 73 47 72 / 10 5 10 10
RED RIVER....................... 32 68 35 69 / 10 20 20 20
TAOS............................ 41 75 42 73 / 10 10 10 10
SANTA FE........................ 47 75 47 74 / 10 10 20 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 46 77 46 76 / 10 5 10 5
ESPANOLA........................ 42 80 44 79 / 10 0 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 55 79 56 79 / 10 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 46 81 51 81 / 10 0 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 52 77 50 78 / 10 5 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 48 81 51 81 / 10 0 5 5
SOCORRO......................... 48 83 51 83 / 10 0 10 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 40 73 42 72 / 10 5 10 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 40 77 48 77 / 10 5 10 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 47 78 50 80 / 5 0 10 0
RUIDOSO......................... 40 72 43 71 / 5 5 20 10
RATON........................... 43 77 43 75 / 10 10 10 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 46 71 44 73 / 10 20 20 10
ROY............................. 48 75 48 76 / 10 10 10 5
CLAYTON......................... 51 79 52 79 / 10 10 10 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 53 81 52 82 / 10 5 10 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 54 83 54 84 / 10 5 10 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 49 82 50 83 / 5 5 10 5
CLOVIS.......................... 51 80 53 80 / 5 5 5 0
PORTALES........................ 51 81 52 81 / 0 0 5 0
ROSWELL......................... 51 83 55 85 / 0 0 5 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
19
000
FXUS65 KABQ 182054
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
254 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE...IN RESPONSE TO MODEST
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND A 50-60 KNOT 400-250MB JET. RUC13/NAM12
SHORT-TERM ANALYSIS SHOWS STORMS WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
BY 03Z LEAVING BEHIND SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THRU TONIGHT. FRIDAY
WILL BE LESS ACTIVE THAN TODAY OVERALL AS THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA. THE SANGRES/NE PLAINS STILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP FRIDAY AS THE REAR QUADRANT OF TODAYS JET LINGERS OVER THE
NE PLAINS.
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY POSITIONED OFF THE CENTRAL CA COASTLINE GRAZES
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY ISOLD
SHOWERS/STORMS AND SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES. ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER MORE BROAD
TROUGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY MIDWEEK. MAX/MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO THRU THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
GUYER
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS MOST AREAS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL NM THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND BEYOND. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER AND TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE SOME LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS...
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOWS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. LOOK FOR
CONVECTION TO END BY O3Z...HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL AREAS OF VALLEY
FOG ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY...FEWER AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...WITH
ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS LIMITED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO AFTER 18Z AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
MOST AREAS.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. 05
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY PRODUCE GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER AND TO THE
EAST OF HIGH TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS WILL BE EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT...WITH GOOD TO VERY GOOD RECOVERIES
ELSEWHERE. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH A REDUCTION IN THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING. STILL...EXPECT ISOLATED
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN
AND NORTHERN NM. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WITH DRYING ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND STORMS LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE ROCKIES SUNDAY
PRODUCING AN INCREASE IN WINDS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGHER TERRAIN. AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
05
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 47 80 48 81 / 10 5 5 5
GALLUP.......................... 39 78 39 80 / 10 5 5 5
GRANTS.......................... 43 79 41 81 / 10 5 5 5
GLENWOOD........................ 46 80 47 83 / 10 5 5 0
CHAMA........................... 35 72 38 74 / 10 10 10 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 46 73 47 72 / 10 5 10 10
RED RIVER....................... 32 68 35 69 / 20 20 20 20
TAOS............................ 41 75 42 73 / 10 10 10 10
SANTA FE........................ 47 75 47 74 / 20 10 20 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 46 77 46 76 / 10 5 10 5
ESPANOLA........................ 42 80 44 79 / 10 0 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 55 79 56 79 / 10 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 48 81 51 81 / 10 0 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 52 77 50 78 / 20 5 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 50 81 51 81 / 10 0 5 5
SOCORRO......................... 48 83 51 83 / 10 0 10 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 40 73 42 72 / 20 5 10 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 44 77 48 77 / 20 5 10 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 48 78 50 80 / 10 0 10 0
RUIDOSO......................... 43 72 43 71 / 10 5 20 10
RATON........................... 43 77 43 75 / 10 10 10 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 46 71 44 73 / 20 20 20 10
ROY............................. 48 75 48 76 / 20 10 10 5
CLAYTON......................... 51 79 52 79 / 10 10 10 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 53 81 52 82 / 20 5 10 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 54 83 54 84 / 10 5 10 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 49 82 50 83 / 10 5 10 5
CLOVIS.......................... 51 80 53 80 / 0 5 5 0
PORTALES........................ 51 81 52 81 / 0 0 5 0
ROSWELL......................... 51 83 55 85 / 0 0 5 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
GUYER/05
000
FXUS65 KABQ 181529
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
929 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2008
.UPDATE...
A 50 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET SLIDING SE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY..
COMBINED WITH MODEST LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL ALLOW NW FLOW
PATTERN STORMS TO FIRE ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. RAISED POPS
TO SCATTERED ALONG AND TO THE LEE OF THE SANGRES PER LATEST RUC13
AND 12Z NAM GUIDANCE. STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION AFTER SUNSET.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...300 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2008...
CURRENTLY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
EMBEDDED IN BROADLY ZONAL FLOW. CLOCKSPRING CLOSED LOW ALOFT OFF
THE COLUMBIA RIVER ESTUARY WILL HELP PUMP UP ADVANCE RIDGE OVER
NEW MEXICO HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. SURFACE CHARTS PAINTING RIDGE
OVER EASTERN END OF THE STATE WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CENTERED
OVER LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...BROADLY SETTING UP SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE STATE.
MODELS...GOOD CONSENSUS MOVING CLOSED LOW INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
ON FRIDAY...AND SHEARING IT RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. PATH WILL KEEP MOST ALL SERIOUS
ENERGY NORTH OF NEW MEXICO AS ZONAL FLOW RETURNS ACROSS THE STATE
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. NEXT TROUGH AMPLIFYING ALONG THE WEST
COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL SWING TO THE FOUR CORNERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH
SURFACE TROUGH BUDGING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WORKING A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. MOSTLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION ON THE DAY...WITH FAVORED TOPOGRAPHY MAINLY IN
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. PWATS EASING
UP TOWARD A HALF INCH WITH VERY MODEST INSTABILITY ON THE DAY MAY
BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS TO WIND UP THE EVENING.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT IN
ADVANCE OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL KEEP SKIES BROADLY CLEAR
ON FRIDAY...AND HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE NORMAL IN BROAD SOUTH FLOW. EXPECTING FURTHER REDUCTIONS IN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...WITH FAVORED TERRAIN
IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN HIGHLANDS A GOOD BET FOR
SPOTTY THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.
INTO SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA ACROSS
NEW MEXICO TO WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG
THE ARIZONA BORDER WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW STATEWIDE...AND
ANOTHER DAY OF SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
CONVECTION ALONG FAVORED PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IS ON
TAP. ENERGY FROM SHEARING WEATHER SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL MAKE
THE CLOSEST SCRAPE OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY EVENING...AND
THIS MAY PROLONG ANY INITIATED CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY.
INTO SUNDAY...RIDGE TOP SHEARING RAPIDLY EASTWARD AS MORE
ENERGETIC ZONAL FLOW SETS IN ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH
DOWN THE WEST COAST. SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING OVER THE
STATE WILL BROADEN ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY OVER THE
USUAL SPOTS...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURE REGIME TO WIND UP
THE WORK WEEK.
SHY
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN PREVAILING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL NM THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND BEYOND. BUT AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGH BASED ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE TODAY WITH THE NORTHERN AND WEST
CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN FAVORED SOMEWHAT. A FEW MAY MANAGE TO SURVIVE
LONG ENOUGH TO DRIFT OVER THE NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 40 KNOTS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND STORMS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON FIRST OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW SURVIVING
INTO THE PLAINS.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z. 43
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS AND MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH JUST A FEW SURVIVING
LONG ENOUGH TO DRIFT OVER THE NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS. AFTERNOON AND EVENING ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS AND MOSTLY DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
BELOW 20 OR 25 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS AND FAIR TO GOOD OR VERY GOOD
NIGHTTIME RECOVERIES. UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES SUNDAY MAY
DROP THE WESTERLIES SOUTH FAR ENOUGH TO INCREASE WINDS SOMEWHAT
SUNDAY THROUGH TUE OR SO OVER THE NORTH AND HIGHER TERRAIN...THOUGH
GENERALLY BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS UPDATE...
FARMINGTON...................... 82 51 83 51 / 5 0 5 5
GALLUP.......................... 77 43 78 43 / 10 10 5 5
GRANTS.......................... 78 42 79 43 / 10 10 5 5
GLENWOOD........................ 82 55 84 51 / 20 20 5 5
CHAMA........................... 71 36 72 35 / 10 5 5 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 73 46 75 45 / 20 20 5 5
RED RIVER....................... 66 33 67 31 / 30 10 10 5
TAOS............................ 74 39 75 39 / 20 10 5 5
SANTA FE........................ 75 47 77 48 / 10 5 5 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 78 48 79 48 / 10 10 5 0
ESPANOLA........................ 81 44 82 44 / 10 10 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 81 56 82 55 / 5 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 82 49 82 50 / 5 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 78 53 78 52 / 5 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 80 55 81 55 / 5 5 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 81 49 83 51 / 5 5 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 72 41 73 42 / 10 5 0 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 77 43 78 44 / 5 5 5 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 79 47 80 49 / 0 0 5 0
RUIDOSO......................... 71 42 72 43 / 5 0 5 0
RATON........................... 78 42 78 42 / 20 20 10 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 75 44 75 43 / 30 20 10 5
ROY............................. 75 49 77 50 / 20 20 10 5
CLAYTON......................... 80 50 79 51 / 10 10 5 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 83 50 83 49 / 10 20 5 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 84 52 83 54 / 10 10 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 83 51 83 52 / 5 10 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 80 52 81 53 / 5 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 81 51 82 54 / 5 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 84 54 85 55 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
GUYER
000
FXUS65 KABQ 180900
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
EMBEDDED IN BROADLY ZONAL FLOW. CLOCKSPRING CLOSED LOW ALOFT OFF
THE COLUMBIA RIVER ESTUARY WILL HELP PUMP UP ADVANCE RIDGE OVER
NEW MEXICO HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. SURFACE CHARTS PAINTING RIDGE
OVER EASTERN END OF THE STATE WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CENTERED
OVER LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...BROADLY SETTING UP SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE STATE.
MODELS...GOOD CONSENSUS MOVING CLOSED LOW INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
ON FRIDAY...AND SHEARING IT RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. PATH WILL KEEP MOST ALL SERIOUS
ENERGY NORTH OF NEW MEXICO AS ZONAL FLOW RETURNS ACROSS THE STATE
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. NEXT TROUGH AMPLIFYING ALONG THE WEST
COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL SWING TO THE FOUR CORNERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH
SURFACE TROUGH BUDGING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WORKING A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. MOSTLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION ON THE DAY...WITH FAVORED TOPOGRAPHY MAINLY IN
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. PWATS EASING
UP TOWARD A HALF INCH WITH VERY MODEST INSTABILITY ON THE DAY MAY
BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS TO WIND UP THE EVENING.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT IN
ADVANCE OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL KEEP SKIES BROADLY CLEAR
ON FRIDAY...AND HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE NORMAL IN BROAD SOUTH FLOW. EXPECTING FURTHER REDUCTIONS IN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...WITH FAVORED TERRAIN
IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN HIGHLANDS A GOOD BET FOR
SPOTTY THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.
INTO SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA ACROSS
NEW MEXICO TO WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG
THE ARIZONA BORDER WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW STATEWIDE...AND
ANOTHER DAY OF SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
CONVECTION ALONG FAVORED PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IS ON
TAP. ENERGY FROM SHEARING WEATHER SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL MAKE
THE CLOSEST SCRAPE OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY EVENING...AND
THIS MAY PROLONG ANY INITIATED CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY.
INTO SUNDAY...RIDGE TOP SHEARING RAPIDLY EASTWARD AS MORE
ENERGETIC ZONAL FLOW SETS IN ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH
DOWN THE WEST COAST. SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING OVER THE
STATE WILL BROADEN ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY OVER THE
USUAL SPOTS...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURE REGIME TO WIND UP
THE WORK WEEK.
SHY
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN PREVAILING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL NM THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND BEYOND. BUT AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGH BASED ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE TODAY WITH THE NORTHERN AND WEST
CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN FAVORED SOMEWHAT. A FEW MAY MANAGE TO SURVIVE
LONG ENOUGH TO DRIFT OVER THE NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 40 KNOTS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND STORMS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON FIRST OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW SURVIVING
INTO THE PLAINS.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z. 43
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS AND MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH JUST A FEW SURVIVING
LONG ENOUGH TO DRIFT OVER THE NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS. AFTERNOON AND EVENING ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS AND MOSTLY DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
BELOW 20 OR 25 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS AND FAIR TO GOOD OR VERY GOOD
NIGHTTIME RECOVERIES. UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES SUNDAY MAY
DROP THE WESTERLIES SOUTH FAR ENOUGH TO INCREASE WINDS SOMEWHAT
SUNDAY THROUGH TUE OR SO OVER THE NORTH AND HIGHER TERRAIN...THOUGH
GENERALLY BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 82 51 83 51 / 0 0 5 5
GALLUP.......................... 77 43 78 43 / 5 5 5 5
GRANTS.......................... 78 42 79 43 / 5 5 5 5
GLENWOOD........................ 82 55 84 51 / 10 5 5 5
CHAMA........................... 71 36 72 35 / 10 5 5 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 73 46 75 45 / 10 5 5 5
RED RIVER....................... 66 33 67 31 / 20 10 10 5
TAOS............................ 74 39 75 39 / 10 10 5 5
SANTA FE........................ 75 47 77 48 / 5 5 5 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 78 48 79 48 / 5 5 5 0
ESPANOLA........................ 81 44 82 44 / 5 5 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 81 56 82 55 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 82 49 82 50 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 78 53 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 80 55 81 55 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 81 49 83 51 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 72 41 73 42 / 5 0 0 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 77 43 78 44 / 0 5 5 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 79 47 80 49 / 0 0 5 0
RUIDOSO......................... 71 42 72 43 / 5 0 5 0
RATON........................... 78 42 78 42 / 10 10 10 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 75 44 75 43 / 10 5 10 5
ROY............................. 75 49 77 50 / 5 5 10 5
CLAYTON......................... 80 50 79 51 / 0 0 5 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 83 50 83 49 / 0 5 5 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 84 52 83 54 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 83 51 83 52 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 80 52 81 53 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 81 51 82 54 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 84 54 85 55 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHY/43
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