May 2002

Total wheat production in 2002/03 in the four major exporters competing with the United States is forecast at 172 million tons, up 19 million or 13 percent from last year.  In the United States, wheat area and prospective yield is expected to reduce production.  Record output is expected for wheat in the European Union as area increases sharply from last year, especially for France, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Spain.  Much of the higher area is due to a rebound from last year's level, which was reduced by prolonged excessive rains.  In addition, strong prices and better prospective revenue from compensatory payments for farmers have increased wheat plantings vis-à-vis competing crops.  Better yields are anticipated as winter wheat has been developing well overall with adequate moisture supplies.  Australia's crop production is expected to be similar to 2001/02 with slightly higher area, while Canada's wheat production is higher due to an expected recovery from last year's drought-impacted yields.  Argentina is expected to increase area slightly resulting in a larger wheat output for 2002/03. 

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