September 16, 2002

Russian Wheat Harvest Likely to Surpass Last Year

USDA estimates total Russian grain production for 2002/03 at 82.7 million tons (against 85.0 million last year), including 48.0 (46.9) million wheat and 17.5 (19.5) million barley.  Total grain yield is estimated at 1.72 tons per hectare, down slightly from last year's 1.79 tons per hectare but up considerably from the five-year average of 1.40 tons per hectare.  According to Ministry of Agriculture reports, harvest was 64 percent complete as of September 9, with 69.5 million tons of grain threshed from 30.1 million hectares.  Harvest is  nearing completion in the Central, Southern, and Volga districts in European Russia (except for later crops like maize) and roughly 10 percent complete in Siberia, where roughly half of the country's spring wheat is grown.  Yield potential in Siberia is high, but crop development was delayed by cool, wet weather.  As usual, final output in the spring wheat region will depend in large part on how much of the standing crop farmers will be able to gather before winter weather brings a halt to the harvest campaign.  (See graph of district-level production estimates.)

The high prospects for the 2002/03 crop are the result of several factors:

• Good weather.  Establishment conditions for winter grains were favorable, winterkill was relatively low, and an early spring enabled winter crops to resume vegetative growth earlier than usual.  Although dry weather during April and May threatened grain crops in the Southern and Volga districts, and overall precipitation amounts were lower than last year, timely rains provided adequate moisture at critical times.  Yield potential of spring grains in the Urals and Siberia benefited from above-normal rainfall.

• Increased winter wheat area.  The sown area of winter wheat, Russia's highest-yielding grain, increased nearly 20 percent in 2002/03 to an estimated 10.0 million hectares.  (Total grain area increased by 0.7 million hectares to an estimated 48.1 million, with increases in wheat, barley, and rye area compensating for decreases in oats and millet.)

• Improved management practices.  Although weather remains the main factor in determining yield, increased efficiency in crop-management techniques has likely had a positive effect on grain production over the last several years.  In general, farmers are able to obtain short-term loans for the purchase of fertilizers and plant-protection chemicals, and application rates have increased modestly in recent years.  The dismantling of State-owned farms roughly five years ago, and their subsequent re-structuring as joint-stock enterprises or privately owned farms, has resulted in increased efficiency in the agricultural sector, according to most observers.  Farmers, however, are still not allowed to use land as collateral in order to secure large, long-term loans to purchase new machinery and storage facilities, and one of the biggest problems confronting farmers is the lack of modern or even operational harvesting machinery. 

The biggest question mark regarding final 2002/02 grain production is harvest weather in Siberia.   

For more information, contact Mark Lindeman
with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, at (202) 690-0143.