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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
June 6, 2002
Crop conditions in North Korea are much better than last year, which featured one of coldest winters on record followed by extreme drought in the spring and early summer. Above-normal rainfall in April and near-normal rainfall in May benefited winter wheat and barley development and summer crop planting in North Korea. Rainfall has tapered off in recent weeks and soil moisture levels are declining, but the there is no immediate danger of drought. A timely start to the rainy season (mid to late June) will determine if North Korea will have normal summer crop yields in 2002.
Spring rainfall (March through May) was close to normal in 2002, and higher than the past two years. March was seasonably dry, but 3 to 4 inches of rain (300 percent of normal) fell in April. Rainfall has tapered off since the middle of May, and the first week of June has also been mostly dry.
Seasonal rainfall was above normal in central North Korea (Pyongyang/Nampo/Singye). The region also received a welcome boost of rain in mid-May. In the northwest (Anju/Kusong) seasonal rainfall is normal, but the last 30 days have been dry. Eastern North Korea (Kimchaek/Hamheung) had favorable rainfall through May 1 but has developed a rainfall deficit of 1 to 2 inches. Southern North Korea (Haeju/Kaesong/Singye) received more rain in April than other regions of the country, but it also has been trending dry in May.
Average temperatures across North Korea were unusually warm during the winter of 2001 and spring of 2002. The warm weather brought winter crops out of dormancy ahead of schedule and aided summer crop planting/transplanting in the spring. Temperatures remain above normal in May and June, with daily highs in the mid to upper 20's C. (80's F). In 2001, very high temperatures in May and June intensified the impact of the drought.
Soil moisture was typically low in March but increased sharply following heavy rain in April, just in time for winter crop heading/reproduction and summer crop preparations. Although soil moisture has declined during May, total soil moisture is still close to 50 percent in the most important crop areas of central and southern North Korea. In northern and eastern North Korea, soil moisture is currently about 20 percent, which is below optimal levels but better than last year.
Winter Wheat and Barley. Production of winter wheat/winter barley is estimated at 180,000 tons, up 80,000 tons or 80 percent from last year's drought-impacted crop. Planted area is estimated up slightly to 95,000 hectares. The North Korean government is trying to increase grain production by expanding double-cropped area. Planting conditions were drier than normal in the fall of 2001. The winter of 2001/02 was unusually mild and the crop emerged from dormancy earlier than normal. Timely spring rainfall favored reproduction and grain fill, while mostly dry weather in May aided crop maturity and harvesting.
Corn. Production is estimated at 1.5 million tons, up 7 percent from last year. The estimated planted area of 500,000 hectares is down slightly from last year. Crop area has been declining for several years due to erosion, flood damage, soil depletion, and water shortages. Some corn area has also also been shifted to alternative crops such as potatoes and vegetables. The forecast yield of 3.0 tons per hectare is the highest since 1998/99 and assumes normal weather during the upcoming growing season. Abundant spring rainfall and warm temperatures gave corn and other summer crops a fair start, but more rain will be needed very soon to boost soil moisture levels and promote normal crop development.
Rice. Planted area for rice is expected to be similar to last year’s 550,000 hectares. The current warm and dry weather is favorable for rice transplanting (now underway across the country) but the water supply may be insufficient in some areas. Reservoir levels are below normal due to poor snowfall during the winter, the irrigation network is in disrepair, and there is a severe shortage of electricity for pumping. The first official USDA estimate for North Korea's 2002/03 rice crop will be released in July.
