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April 29, 2002
Winter grains should be in the jointing stage in most of Eastern Europe as temperatures have been above average since mid-January (with a two-week exception in late March/early April that brought cooler air). Fears of a return to cold weather during late winter (when there was no protective snow cover over dormant crops) never materialized. Currently, moisture conditions in the region are largely split along an east-west axis, with the best conditions existing north of Hungary.
Beneficially Moist in Poland and the Czech Republic; Hungary and Northern Serbia Rapidly Drying
A surplus of rainfall exists in Poland, the Czech Republic, and much of Slovakia. Further south, Croatia has also enjoyed abundant precipitation, thanks to the beneficial track of storms which have left the western Balkans (closest to the Adriatic Sea), wet. Western Romania and Vojvodina (northern Serbia) received substantial autumn rainfall and some additional winter precipitation which should have provided for adequate moisture for the winter grain crop. However, the area has recently seen some worrisome short-term dryness and if the dryness continues, problems could develop for their important summer crops of corn, sunflower and soybeans. The spring dryness problem is magnified in Hungary because of a more severe lack of precipitation that began in the winter months. This situation has been developing for a while and could quickly become serious if significant rainfall doesn't occur soon in Hungary.
Very Dry in Southern Romania
The large growing areas around the Black Sea and the Danube River in southern Romania and northern Bulgaria have shown some short-term gains with the arrival of precipitation (mostly in Bulgaria). Still, soil moisture in this area remains far below average, following a dry winter and a severe summer drought that occurred last year. That drought devastated summer crops in Dobruja and Dobrich, in far eastern Romania and Bulgaria. A lack of rain has been a persistent problem for the Black Sea coast and the Danube River Valley areas of southern Romania and northern Bulgaria in the last couple years. It has only been made worse along the Black Sea in the last ten years because its once considerable irrigation systems have been torn up, stolen, and sold as scrap or left to decay, leaving virtually no functioning irrigation schemes.
Key to the Map: Sub-surface soil moisture levels
The sub-surface soil moisture is assumed to hold 0-400 mm/m of water depending on the soil’s water-holding capacity (based on soil texture and soil depth). In general, sub-surface soil moisture levels ranging from:
Soil Moisture Measures in Eastern Europe
Map showing areas of concern in Eastern Europe due to dryness. Troublesome dry areas include
Southern Romania along the Danube River
Romania & Bulgaria's Black Sea Coast
Northern Serbia-Western Romania-Hungary
Macedonia.
Percent soil moisture map. This soil moisture map that uses percent soil saturation of both surface and subsurface soils. The result is the same, showing similar dry spots.
Precipitation September 2001 to Date
The three northern most countries have seen significant precipitation so far this season and have ample moisture supplies in reserve during the growing season to date. Crops should be developing under very good conditions throughout this region.
The northern area of the Balkans (Hungary-west Romania-northern Serbia) saw good autumn and some areas saw good early winter precipitation, however it has been rapidly drying-out, a result of much below average spring rainfall. Crop conditions will deteriorate if rainfall does not return, with concerns particularly turning towards their larger summer crops. Hungary is loosing moisture rapidly as it has had little winter precipitation.
Vojvodina, Serbia, the intensive grain producing region of Northern Serbia
Several areas have experienced chronic dryness, showing both a winter and a spring rainfall deficit, on the heels of a very dry 2001/02 season includes the lower Danube River Valley and the Black Sea coast.
Moldavia, Eastern Romania has seen below-average levels of rainfall since December and appears very dry on soil moisture maps.
Macedonia shows
considerable dryness throughout the winter grains season on rainfall graphs.
Spring Precipitation (March 1 - April 24)The following charts illustrate precipitation from March 1-April 24, 2002.
For more information, contact Bryan Purcell
with
the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202)
690-0138.
