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January 2002 Edition
Growth Rate of Global Oilseeds Exports Slows Despite Record Soybean Exports
Following the upward trend since MY 1998/99, global soybean exports will increase 4.04 million tons in MY 2001/02, reaching a record 59.26 million tons. Last year, an impressive 8.55 million-ton increase in global soybean exports contributed to an 11 percent rise in global oilseeds trade. However, despite this year’s increase in global soybean trade, total oilseed trade in MY 2001/02 will only increase one percent over last year’s level. This is because decreases in global sunflowerseed and rapeseed exports will nearly offset the gain in soybean exports. Because of low production in key sunflowerseed and rapeseed growing regions, sunflowerseed exports will contract 40 percent (1.32 million tons) and rapeseed 21 percent (2.09 million tons) in MY 2001/02. While these oilseeds are not perfect substitutes, soybean imports are filling the void left by low supplies of other oilseeds. The price of soybeans has been falling along with the supplies of sunflowerseed and rapeseed. This implies that the increase in the supply of soybeans has been more than large enough to replace the lost supplies of sunflowerseed and rapeseed, and to satisfy increased demand for oilseeds.
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Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA
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