Cotton: World Markets and Trade (November 2002)

November 2002 Edition:

U.S. Exports Off to Slow Start Towards 10.8 Million-Bale Forecast

As of the end of October, total U.S. export commitments (accumulated exports plus outstanding sales) for MY 2002/03 were 25 percent below commitments at the same time last year. Still, at only three months into the marketing year, there is time for U.S. exports to increase dramatically, and reason to expect a final export total near last year's 11-million bale estimate. World import demand is forecast at 29.9 million bales this year, up marginally from 29.6 million in MY 2001/02. The U.S. is expected to have an exportable supply of raw cotton in MY 2002/03 of 17.5 million bales, 1.0 million bales less than in 2001/02. At the same time, however, the foreign exportable supply is forecast to fall more than 6 million bales, due mainly to rapidly expanding consumption in China and poor weather in Australia.

There are several explanations for lagging U.S. export sales thus far. First, markets that are expected to finish the year as major importers, notably India and Turkey, are currently purchasing local crops at relatively low prices while available. Second, uncertainty about the quality of the U.S. crop has restricted export offers. Third, farmers could be expecting higher step 2 rates to be passed on in the form of higher farm-gate prices, and have therefore decided not to sell for the moment. Fourth, market premiums to producers in excess of the CCC loan rate, and step 2 payments to merchants and mills, have heretofore been minimal but are currently rising.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

U.S. Cotton Outlook
World Cotton Outlook
Cotton Prices
U.S. Cotton Highlights

Most statistical tables contained in this circular may be viewed in Adobe Acrobat format ® (.pdf).

Tables

Table 1: World Cotton Supply, Use and Trade, 1997/98-2002/2003 (1,000 metric tons) {.pdf}
Table 2: World Cotton Supply, Use and Trade, 1997/98-2002/2003 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}
Table 3: FY 2002 GSM-102 and Supplier Credit Programs {.pdf .csv}
Table 4: Area, Yield, and Production by Country 2001/2002-2002/2003 {.pdf}
Table 5: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2002/2003 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}
Table 5-A: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2002/2003 (1,000 metric tons) {.pdf}
Table 6: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2002/2003 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}
Table 6-A: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country, 2002/2003 (1,000 metric tons) {.pdf}
Table 7: Export Sales Summary {.pdf .csv}
Table 8: Northern European Cotton and Adjusted World Price {.pdf}
Table 9: World Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization {.pdf}
Table 10: United States Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization {.pdf}
Table 11: Foreign Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization {.pdf}
Table 12: New Independent States Cotton Supply and Demand, MY 1991/92-2002/2003 {.pdf}
Table 13:Summary of Changes 2000/01-2002/2003 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}
Supplement: Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization 1993/94 - 2002/03 {.pdf}

	Most statistical tables are available in Adobe Acrobat and Lotus version 3 format. You may need to GET the Acrobat reader.
Download the trade tables in Lotus 123 version 3 format. Please note that some versions of Netscape Navigator will change the filename extension; if this happens, you MUST rename the file to .wk3 to access it.

Last modified: Tuesday, August 30, 2005