Ukraine Corn: Record Yield for 2005/06
The USDA's November estimate for Ukraine corn production for 2005/06
is 6.5 million tons
from harvested area of 1.6 million hectares. Yield is estimated at
4.06 tons per hectare -- the highest yield on record -- and harvest-progress
reports from the Ministry of Agriculture indicate that final yield could climb even
higher. This year's outstanding yield is chiefly the result
of adequate and timely rainfall during the growing season followed by remarkably
dry harvest weather. Yield also benefited from continuing gradual improvements
in technology, including the increasing use of quality planting seed and modest
increases in the application of mineral fertilizers and plant-protection
chemicals. Apart from a 3-percent year-to-year drop in 2003, Ukraine corn
yield has increased every year since 1999.
Despite the higher yield, corn production decreased from last year due to a
30-percent reduction in area, resulting in part from low corn prices last
spring. Ukraine corn output for 2004/05 reached 8.8
million tons, the highest in over 40 years, but persistently wet weather reduced
the quality of the crop. As a result, the market was flooded with
low-quality corn following the 2004 harvest. Farm-gate prices dropped about 35 percent between
October 2004 and the following March (prior to the launch of the 2005 spring
planting campaign)
and corn area dropped from 2.6 million hectares in 2004 to
1.8 million in 2005.
The area devoted to silage corn has declined sharply over the past fifteen
years concurrent with a decline in livestock
inventories. In 1990,
silage accounted for 79 percent of total corn area in Ukraine, but by 2005 the share
of silage had fallen to 29 percent. Corn-for-grain area, meanwhile, has
rebounded in recent years, this year's
drop notwithstanding. (Despite the year-to-year drop, Ukraine corn area
for 2005/06 remains the third highest since 1989/90.) Planted area between
2001 and 2005 averaged 1.7 million hectares compared to 1.0 million for the
previous five years. The resurgence in corn-for-grain area is likely related in part to recent growth in the
poultry
sector. Inventories have increased from 124 million head at the beginning
of 2001 to 154 million in 2005, and an August report
from the U.S. agricultural attache in Kiev indicates that Ukraine poultry
production will continue to accelerate in 2006. Corn is a major component
in poultry feed. The area for soybeans, another chief ingredient in
poultry feed, has skyrocketed over the same time period, from 61,000 hectares
for 2001/02 to an estimated 400,000 hectares for 2005/06. In addition to their
popularity as poultry-feed components, both corn and soybeans are viewed by
farmers as reliably exportable commodities.
The story for the 2005/06 corn crop in Russia is
virtually the same as for Ukraine: record yield with a year-to-year drop in
production due to reduced area. Russian output is estimated at 3.2 million
tons (against 3.5 million in 2004/05) from harvested area of 0.8 (0.9) million
hectares, with yield at a record 4.0 (3.83) tons per hectare. As of
November 1, according to data from SovEcon, 2.45 million tons had been harvested
from 0.55 million hectares, or 64 percent of the planted area. Last year,
approximately 50 percent of the planted area had been harvested by the same
date, with output of 2.0 million tons.
Current USDA area and production estimates for grains and other agricultural
commodities are available at World
Agricultural Production Online or at PSD
Online. Initial estimates for 2006/07 will be released in May 2006.
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