November 19, 2003

India:  2003/04 Rapeseed Production Increased

Area Rebounds in Response to Recent Precipitation

As of November 12, 2003, USDA forecasts India's 2003/04 rapeseed production  at 5.8 million tons, up 0.3 million or 5 percent from last month, and up 2.2 million or 38 percent from last year. The current 2003/04 India rapeseed area forecast is 6.6 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 2.0 million or 42 percent from last year.

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) declared the 2003 Southwest Monsoon favorable, as the IMD determined that India received 102 percent of normal precipitation for the period June 1 through September 30, 2003.

The distribution of the monsoon and subsequent shower activity has favored the western rapeseed growing states including the desert province of Rajasthan.  The aggregate of selected weather stations within this important oilseed region consistently recorded above normal precipitation for the monsoon period as shown by the red curve in the following graph.

Sowing of the winter planted (Rabi) crops is just beginning in most areas of northwest India.  The dominant Rabi crops in this region are wheat and rapeseed.  Virtually all of India’s rapeseed production occurs during the Rabi season (planted November and harvested in April). For the 2003/04 Rabi season we are forecasting a significant rebound in rapeseed area. 
 

An analysis of India rapeseed area as a function of precipitation amounts over different time periods reveals that the 90 days prior to the major rapeseed planting is the most significant in terms of area response.  A study of previous seasons’ relationship between final rapeseed area and pre-sowing precipitation amounts has an r-square of 0.96 (The square of the Pearson product moment correlation coefficient of the two datasets).
 

Therefore, given the amount of precipitation of received during the highly correlated  period of August 15 to November 15, 2003 we are forecasting a minimum rapeseed area of 6.6 million hectares for the 2003/04 season..  Given the favorable start to the current season and assuming an average yield of 0.878 tons per hectare, total output will be 5.8 million metric tons this season.

For more information, contact James Crutchfield  
of the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, at (202) 690-0135.