September 21, 2003

West African Franc Zone:  Bumper Cotton Harvest Expected

Above-Average Seasonal Rainfall

Above-average seasonal rainfall within the major cotton producing regions of West Africa’s Franc Zone should produce a bumper cotton harvest this year, as forecast by USDA in its official statistics released on September 11, 2003.  Harvest begins next month, and the 2003/04 crop is forecast at 4.32 million bales, up 0.35 million bales or 9 percent from last year.   The Franc Zone produced 3.97 million bales of lint last year, which was slightly above the 5-year average of 3.92 million bales. Record cotton production of 4.49 million bales was set in 2001/02.  

Francophone Africa,  or the cotton “Franc Zone” of west and central Africa, includes the following nine countries, in order of raw cotton production from last year: Mali, Burkina Faso, Benin, Cote d'Ivoire, Cameroon, Togo, Chad, Senegal, and Central African Republic.   Rainfall this season has been above average in the major cotton producing regions; soil moisture reserves were still high by the beginning of this month.  The exception has been in northern Cote d'Ivoire where rainfall has been below average for the season. Cotton within the Franc Zone is typically planted from May-July and harvested from October-December.

Seasonal rainfall also has been favorable for the three largest cotton producers in the region—Mali, Burkina Faso, and Benin, all of which anticipate near-record production this year. Record production for the Franc Zone may have been achieved this year if Cote d’Ivoire was producing at full capacity.   However, below-average production is expected for Cote d'Ivoire due to less than favorable rainfall in the northern cotton regions and low inputs caused by on-going political uncertainty.  In addition, all ginning plants are located in the northern half of the country which is under rebel control. 

In general, this year's crop has received above-average and well-distributed seasonal rainfall for almost all major cotton producing regions, except for the northern cotton regions of Cote d'Ivoire.  Last year's crop for the Franc Zone experienced insufficient rainfall in several cotton producing regions, but this year's is expected to produce more than last year's drought-stricken crop, due to increased planted area and above-average seasonal rainfall.  Problems this year include flooding in countries such as Senegal, Mali, and Chad, but these localized events are not expected to reduce overall cotton production for each country.  

Table 1 summarizes current USDA forecasts, which are largely based on in-country government and non-government reports, FAS attaché reports, field travel, news wires, agro-meteorology data, and near real-time satellite imagery (Crop Explorer).  Nigeria is also included in the table because Nigeria is a major cotton producer for West Africa.  Annual FAS attaché reports for cotton in Nigeria and Cote d’Ivoire are prepared in May or June of each year.
 

Summary Production Estimates by Country

Benin 

Benin's production forecast this year is 725,000 bales, up 50,000 bales from last year's output of 675,000 bales. Benin should produce more cotton than last year due to increased planted area and better than average rainfall.   Benin’s cotton belt extends from the central to northern parts of the country, and Benin produced a record of 800,000 bales of lint during 2001/02.

Burkina Faso

Burkina Faso is forecast to have a record crop this year due to above-average rainfall and increased planted area.  Flooding has damaged some areas, but total harvested area should increase for the country, due to increased planted area from higher farmgate prices and additional families living in Benin who fled the war in neighboring Cote d’Ivoire. Most cotton is grown in the southwest, where the soils are generally more fertile, rainfall more abundant, and growing seasons longer.  The south-west also includes the Mouhoun Region, which is regarded as Burkina Faso’s breadbasket due to its high agricultural production. 

Cameroon

Cameroon's forecast is a record crop of 450,000 bales due to above-average rains and a record planted area of 220,000 hectares. There have been some reports of flooding, but record area harvested is still expected.  Cotton is currently a main source of cash income for about 320,000 farmers in the north.

Central African Republic (CAR)

Production is forecast at 50,000 bales as rainfall has been near average this year.  Last year's crop of 35,000 bales was below the 5-year production average of 50,000 bales. The cotton belt of CAR extends into the savanna zone of southern Chad and northern Cameroon. 

Chad

Chad’s production is forecast at  325,000 bales, which is the same as last year.  Rainfall has been near average with a few reports of localized flooding. Cotton production is mainly concentrated south of the country, while herding prevails in the more arid northern zone. Lack of irrigation makes production highly vulnerable to climatic conditions as evidenced by the large fluctuations of lint production over the years.

Cote d’Ivoire

Rainfall for Cote d’Ivoire’s cotton belt, or northern savanna zone has been below average, indicating production will probably be less than last year's poor crop caused by the civil war.  Even though the armed conflict is over, production is expected to be below average this year due to poor rainfall, lack of delivery of seeds during the planting season, and low inputs during the season.  In addition, labor for harvesting the crop is expected to be scarce as the cotton regions are located in the rebel-held northern half of the country. 

Mali

Mali, the leading cotton producer in the region, is forecast to produce a near-record crop this year of 1 million bales due to increased planted area and above-average rainfall.  Localized floods have damaged some areas, but well-distributed rainfall throughout the season should more then compensate for the flood losses.  Area planted is at record levels this year because sowing was earlier than normal and favorable for a long period of time.  With good rains and intermittent bright periods, growing conditions were also favorable for producing a better than average crop.  Malian cotton is widely recognized as being of high quality with low production costs, despite low yields by world standards.

Senegal

Senegal expects a near record crop this year of 65,000 bales due to beneficial rains.  Planting was slightly delayed but seasonal rainfall has been average within the cotton region.  Cotton is cultivated mostly in the southern part the country (Agricultural Lands of Senegal).
 

Togo

Production is forecast at 350,000 bales this year, which is above the 5-year average of 286,000 bales.  Togo’s cotton belt extends from the central to northern part of the country and this region has received above-average rainfall this year. 

Nigeria

Nigeria’s lint production for 2002/03 is estimated at 450,000 bales, up from 390,000 bales last year.  Area planted increased from 340,000 to 375,000 hectares this year due to better cotton prices relative to competing crops such corn and sorghum. Seasonal rainfall has been near average within Nigeria's cotton belt. The northern cotton zone (Kaduna, Katsina, Bauchi, and Sokoto States) typically accounts for 80 percent of cotton production and the eastern zone (Kano, Borno, Plateau, and Niger) accounts for approximately 15 percent of production (Nigeria Cotton Region).
 

 Table 1. Summary Cotton Production Forecasts for 2003/04 Season

Related Links with the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS)

    Annual FAS attaché report from Cote d'Ivoire for 2003/04 cotton 

    Annual FAS attaché report from Nigeria for 2003/04 cotton

    Crop Explorer

    Several Cotton Regions Dry in African Franc Zone during 2002

For more information, contact Curt Reynolds
with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, at Curt.Reynolds@usda.gov or (202) 690-0134.