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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
August 28, 2003
Vegetation in several important corn production areas of Mexico is faring better than at this time in 2002; however, only a few localities are experiencing exceptional precipitation. Mexican authorities who monitor field conditions have found no encouragement in a recent forecast calling for a scaled-down conclusion to the 2003 hurricane season.
William Gray, a well-known expert on hurricane activity based at Colorado State University, has issued an update calling for less tropical storm activity than in his May 2003 forecast. This is not good news for Mexico, as chronic water shortages exist in several regions, negatively affecting both agricultural and non-agricultural activity.
Tropical storms are the best source for replenishment of reservoirs across Mexico, many of which are significantly below optimum levels. The hurricane season from Canada to Central America normally extends from June 1 to November 30, with most of the major Atlantic and Pacific storms developing in August and September. Reduced tropical storm activity during these two months almost surely will translate into a worsened supply situation at Mexico’s water storage sites. Hurricane Ignacio in the Gulf of California may yet spawn a series of showers to help moisture-starved Baja, Sonora, and Chihuahua.
Total rainfall accumulation across Mexico was below normal from January to May 2003 (see regional precipitation and soil moisture maps in Crop Explorer), most noticeably in May, when the leading edge of the monsoon annually ends the dry season, instantly inflating rainfall totals for the period. With little sub-surface moisture, this summer’s vegetation (predominately non-irrigated) was dependent on surface moisture, and the plants’ response to rainfall events was accordingly very strong. Following those early season complications, summer 2003 Central Plateau vegetation was normal to slightly above normal into August. If the monsoon persists, Central Plateau fields are on course for a typical summer crop output (see Guanajuato and Michoacan). Conditions in many of the eastern corn productions areas heading into August were also superior to 2002, as vegetative vigor soared and contracted in concert with monsoonal activity (see Veracruz). A curious dissipation of the monsoon during August and September 2002 over states such as Puebla resulted in yield loss, as moisture stress interfered with the size of the kernels developing on cobs. Absent a drastic decline in rainfall during August and September 2003, eastern corn prospects are also good.
Mexico: Spring/Summer Corn Area and Production Statistics, 1990-2001, by State. (data compiled by SAGARPA, Mexico's equivalent of the Department of Agriculture)
Honduran 2003 corn planted area may be negatively affected by misuse of a government assistance program during the 2002 crop year. The state of Olancho, in northeast Honduras, is a top corn and sorghum producer, but not everyone who participated in last year’s special government assistance program actually applied the loan money to crop production activities. This year’s assistance program reportedly has been revamped to scale back funding where money was mis-applied, and early estimates suggest that Olancho corn planted area is off the 2002 total, as less financial aid was available to legitimate producers. In addition, Honduran media reports suggest that numerous Olancho producers did not plant this spring due to dissatisfaction with the projected prices at which they would sell their harvested corn.
A Panamanian rice industry report expected to be released in August 2003 may proclaim a new record for mechanized planted area at nearly 80,000 hectares, knowledgeable sources suggest. Producer prospects were considered bleak as recently April, but gloom was gone with the consistency of the 2003 monsoon. Although rainfall distribution is not ideal and total precipitation is below normal, it exceeds the preceding two years’ totals for the same period (see regional precipitation and soil moisture maps in Crop Explorer). Panamanian rice is grown under two conditions, mechanized and non-mechanized, and has two seasons, summer and winter. The main production cycle begins in most years with planting in May/June, and ends with harvesting from August into October. This is predominately the mechanized crop that accounts for about 70 percent of the annual total. The non-mechanized rice fields, generally owned by smaller, poorer producers, contribute 15-20 percent of the annual total. The small rice crop season begins in December, is all irrigated, and provides the remaining 10 percent of national production. Prior to planting, conversation in Panama centered on the delayed arrival of the 2003 annual monsoon, which usually begins in March. Producers curtailed field preparation while awaiting the monsoon, and conversation shifted to contraband shipments of grade A rice believed to be originating in neighboring Costa Rica. The contraband was then discovered to have an in-country source, and the politically divisive issue faded as the May and June rains drew producer focus to their fields.
Mexico: 2003 Monsoon Not Yet Panacea for Trend To
Dryness: July 31, 2003
Mexico Crop Travel: November 4, 2002
