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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
April 15, 2003
Persistent, unseasonably cold weather in Ukraine and southern Russia has delayed the resumption of spring growth for winter grains. As of April 1, winter grains have likely broken dormancy only in western and southern Ukraine, and in southern Russia. By the same time last year, winter crop development was unusually accelerated due largely to warm February weather. Satellite imagery illustrates the sharp contrast between last year's early spring crop conditions and this year. By early April, patchy snow cover still remained in parts of southern Ukraine, while by the same time last year snow had completely disappeared from the main winter grain region and winter crops had resumed vegetative growth. Eastern Ukraine and southern Russia saw a brief spike in temperatures on April 8, with maximum temperatures as high as 25° Celsius at some locations, then dropping by the next day to only about 7 degrees.
The cold weather is delaying the launch of the spring sowing campaign. According to planting data from the State Statistical Committee, spring grains have been sown on less than 100,000 hectares as of April 1. Although early progress is significantly behind last year's remarkably rapid pace--roughly 3.6 million hectares by the same date--spring planting in Ukraine typically is not in full swing until mid-April. Complicating spring-planting further is the amount of replanting that will be required due to high frost and ice-crusting damage to winter crops. Agricultural officials estimate that spring barley will need to be sown on 5 million hectares, compared to roughly 3.6 million last year, to compensate for winter grain losses. Spring planting has begun in southern Russia and is reportedly behind last year's pace. As in Ukraine, however, spring sowing progress in 2002 was considerably ahead of normal. Typically in Russia, spring planting is just beginning at this time and is usually less than 5 percent complete by mid-April.
According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Statistics, farms planted 8.0 million hectares of winter grains for harvest in 2003 (compared to 8.7 million the previous season), including 6.7 (7.2) million wheat, 0.6 (0.8) million rye, and 0.7 (0.6) million barley. In Russia, winter grain area dropped by a reported 18 percent to approximately 14.4 million hectares. Officials estimate that damage to winter crops was worse than last year, especially in Ukraine where ice crusting in February and March compounded December frost damage. (See March 18 update.) Initial USDA grain forecasts of 2003/04 production will be released on May 12, 2003.
