March 31, 2003

Central and Eastern Europe: Winter Crop Situation

Seasonal Summary

Many sources report that autumn crop area in Central Europe is down this year. The decline is being largely attributed to weather-related factors. One reported cause is the very cold winter.  The 2002/03 winter season was the coldest in many years for Central Europe with temperatures consistently dropping well below normal in every country.  During the coldest three-month period, from December through February, temperatures fell to critically low levels several times. Bitter cold dominated the weather in Poland as well as in eastern and southern Romania.  There was also much-below-normal temperatures in the large grain-producing region along the Serbia-Romania-Hungary border. All of these areas experienced temperatures which averaged a full five or more degrees Celsius below normal. Temperatures were coldest in the east and they were also the farthest below normal. To the west in the Czech Republic and in eastern Germany, temperatures moderated somewhat but were still 1-3 degrees °C, and   below normal for the entire winter.

A prolonged period of bitterly cold temperatures accompanied by little or no protective snow cover can result in significant plant loss. While no severe outbreaks of winterkill have been confirmed, there are areas, particularly in Poland, where little snow cover existed during some of the coldest periods.  In addition, while minimum temperatures did not drop below -20 °C for more than just a few consecutive nights, these very low temperatures were reached several times during the season.

Spring planted crops, including wheat and rapeseed could at least, partially compensate for any possible winter losses.   Poland typically grows a significant amount (20% of its total) with spring planted varieties of wheat, barley and rapeseed.

Early Season Crop Problems

The second major problem facing the 2003/04 winter crop stems from a much-delayed and therefore disappointing fall planting operation that is reported to have resulted in less area sown to winter crops.  Last year, an early summer drought broke in July and August. This late-season rainfall enticed many farmers to delay the fall harvest, so the summer crops could take advantage of the late season moisture.  Unfortunately, heavy rains arrived in September and October, increasing the time required for the harvest.  A relatively dry November followed, permitting farmers to hurriedly sow fields until the respite ended with more rain at the end of  November and December. The remaining fields became too wet and muddy for machinery, leaving farmers to let many tracts unseeded as time ran out.  The late planted crops probably had poorer germination and less vegetative growth, leaving them more susceptible during the winter.

December

December was bitterly cold with temperatures dropping as low as -21 °C during the second week. The sudden influx of cold temperatures froze any muddy or ponded fields while quickly ending any late field work.  Areas in Poland,  Czech Republic and Slovakia had conditions conducive to winterkill as cold weather overspread fields with minimal protective snow cover.   At the end of December, temperatures again dropped to -20 °C in Poland, Romania and Slovakia.  Fortunately this time, the low temperature incursion was brief and there was a layer of protective snow cover above the dormant crops.

January

The first and second week of January brought temperatures as low as -27 °C in eastern Poland. During the coldest period, Poland's temperatures averaged 10 - 12 °C below normal.  The mercury also dipped below -20 °C in Vojvodina, Serbia, and in central Romania.   Crops were vulnerable under patchy snow cover during the early part of January.  Later in the month, however, moderate snow blanketed and helped insulate the dormant crops of Poland and the rest of Central Europe.

February

February temperatures remained well below normal for the vast majority of the month.  While temperatures dropped to almost -20 °C, crops should have been protected under the heavy snow. For more February Weather data click on February Temperature Anomalies (Departure from normal) and Percent of Normal February Precipitation.

* Initial USDA forecasts of 2003/04 production will be released on May 12, 2003.      

For more information, contact Bryan Purcell
with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, at (202) 690-0138