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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
January 14, 2003
South Africa's total corn production for 2002/03 is forecast at 8.0 million tons, down 1.5 million from last month and down 1.1 million or 12 percent from last year’s crop. Last month’s forecast production estimate was above the 5-year production average, while this month’s estimate was adjusted below the 5-year production average to account for a reduction in planted area and yield potential caused by dryness during November and early December. Harvested area is estimated at 3.3 million hectares, down 0.3 million from last month and down 50,000 hectares from last year.
In the eastern portion of the Maize Triangle, planting was three or more weeks later than optimum due to dry conditions in November (Figure 1). Many young plants were either stressed or died from the lack of moisture and excessive heat. Other regions experienced significant delays in planting due to the late onset of rains. Late plantings in the eastern region of the Maize Triangle will reduce yields due to a shorter growing season and increase the risk of frost damage at harvest time. Planting conditions were better in the western region of the Maize Triangle where the rains arrived on time in mid-December, but a dry period in early January also stressed the crop.
Figure 1. Dry Conditions in the Eastern Region of the Maize Triangle
Rainfall is required in the next several weeks to provide moisture to the dry crop, but below-average rainfall is forecast for the first quarter of 2003 due to El Niño conditions. Historically, South Africa has had below-average yields for the past five El Niño events (1983/84, 1986/87, 1991/92, 1994/95, and 1997/98) ranging from moderate to strong in strength. Average yields for the past five El Niño years is 1.6 tons/ha (Figure 2), and current yields may continue to decrease as in past El Niño years. USDA currently estimates corn yields at 2.4 tons/ha.
Figure 2. Corn Yields During El Niño Years Are Below the 20-year Trend Line
Related Links
South Africa GAIN Report (January 2003)
South Africa GAIN report (December 2003)
South Africa:
Dry Weather Delays Corn Planting
(11/04/02)
