Afghanistan: Third year of drought, conditions worsen

June 12, 2001

Summary: While Afghanistan is undergoing a third consecutive year of drought, conditions this year are by far the most severe and widespread.  The compound effect of dry weather and higher temperatures for three consecutive years have severely reduced food production.

(Go to Data and Graphics supporting this crop condition assessment)

2001 Season Conditions:
Analysis of the rainfall amount and distribution for the recent winter growing season reveals a significant shortfall compared to long-term normals.  This is the third consecutive year of drought, and the extended dryness has resulted in shortfalls of winter grain production.   The critical grain formation period of February to March experienced relatively dry conditions in several areas.  From November 1 (season start) up to February 1, 2001, key winter-crop growing regions received only 49 percent of normal rainfall.  Conditions worsened in February, and by March 1 only 38 percent of the long-term normal rainfall had been received.  

By the end of the “rainy season” (June 1, 2001), only 46 percent of normal precipitation had fallen.  This will have serious implications for summer crop areas and pasture lands, as the low moisture reserves will be unable to support a second (summer) crop as the dry season begins.  According to U.S. Air Force Weather Data, some southern areas of Afghanistan received higher rainfall amounts. However, much of this precipitation missed the winter crop area, and virtually none fell in the historically more productive wheat areas located along the northern border of Afghanistan.  

Above normal temperatures, during the most of the growing season, further impacted the crop and reduced yield potential.    

Cumulative precipitation has been significantly below normal for the majority of country for the third consecutive year.  Consequently, winter rainfed cereals did not have sufficient moisture at crucial plant growth stages, and some spring wheat areas were left unplanted.  This countrywide weather disaster has resulted in what a recent UN reports as “a near total failure of the rainfed wheat crop and reduced irrigated production”.  

The country's irrigation water depends to a large extent on the melting snows that feed the river systems and the irrigation infrastructure. This year's reduced rainfall was also accompanied by the mildest winter on record, and above normal temperatures in 2001.  The higher minimum temperatures accelerated snowmelt in the mountainous catchment areas, resulting in increased flows to some irrigated regions. The increased availability of irrigation water was beneficial for the wheat crop, resulting in higher yields in the eastern and southern provinces.  However, these increases failed to compensate for losses in other areas, resulting in lower overall grain production.  

Background- Arable Land and Irrigation:
The UN reports that approximately 85 percent of the country's population is directly dependent on agriculture.  Agriculture and animal husbandry have historically been the most important items of Afghanistan’s Gross National Product.  According to the Cooperative Institute for Applied Meteorology at University of Missouri-Columbia, only about 12 percent of Afghanistan's total area is arable.  Most of the land is semi-area to arid with very rugged terrain.  The irrigated areas are known as ‘Abi’ and the dry farmed areas are called ‘Lalmi’.  Nearly 50 percent of the arable land is irrigated and three-quarters of it is located north of the Hindu Kush Mountains.  The short growing season at elevations above 2000 meters permits only one crop to be grown.  Two crops a year can be grown at lower elevations, if enough water is available.  Canal systems convey some 80-85 percent of the irrigation water, while the traditional karezes, springs, and wells feed the remaining 15-20 percent.  According to FAO’s Land Cover Atlas of Afghanistan and FAO AQUASTAT data, the equipped annual irrigated land amounts to some 2.5 million hectares. However, an estimated 30 percent of all irrigation systems are believed to have been damaged or destroyed by the war.  Adding in the effects of abandonment, neglect and lack of maintenance, another 15 to 20 percent of the irrigation infrastructure is probably unusable for agricultural purposes. Hence, the actual irrigated land amounts to 1.2–1.3 million hectares, decreasing every year.  The decline in irrigation availability and efficiency has exacerbated the already-failing crop production.

Wheat and Food Crops:
Wheat is the main food crop, accounting for more than three-quarters of food grain production.  Other important food crops include rice, maize, and barley.  The precise distribution of these crops is not very clear due to limited availability of census data, but generally the dry-farmed Lalmi areas are predominantly devoted to wheat and barley.   Irrigated, or Abi areas can also support crops such as rice and maize.  Similar in latitude and climate to India and Pakistan winter areas, Afghanistan winter crops such as wheat and barley are generally planted in October-December and harvested in April – July.  The summer crops such as rice and maize are planted during April – May and harvested in August – September.  The level of technological inputs, particularly fertilizers, is minimal.  The level of inputs, financial investment capital, and irrigation infrastructure have been declining steadily over the last several years.  

Wheat provides the bulk of calorie intake in Afghanistan. Often bread and yogurt alone constitute a full meal in rural areas. Paddy rice is usually sold by farmers and not retained for family consumption.  Maize is used mainly as feed, while potatoes and various fruit crops are produced for both domestic consumption and as cash crops.   Afghan dried fruits and nuts (mainly almonds and apricots) accounted for 60 percent of the world market in 1982, but declined to around 16 percent by 1990; the share is much lower now, but these products are still important foreign exchange earners.   

Data Sources for this Report:
Cooperative Institute for Applied Meteorology at University of Missouri-Columbia
FAS- PECAD analysis and mapping of meteorological data
FAS  PECAD analysis and mapping of remote sensing data and GIS products
World Meteorological Organization – Weather Station Observations
US Air force Computer Simulated Weather Data
UN FAO production database FAO/WFP
Crop and food Supply Assessment Mission Report

For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, Center for Remote Sensing Analysis at (202) 690-0135.