July 2000

FEATURE COMMODITY ARTICLES

2000/01 World Wheat Situation Characterized by Rising Production in Most Exporters, Reduced Output in Most Importers

World wheat production for 2000/01 is forecast at 581.3 million tons, down 4.4 million or 1 percent from last season and well below the 1997/98 record crop of 609.3 million. Harvested area is forecast at 215.6 million hectares, down 0.6 million from 1999/2000. The average yield is forecast at 2.7 tons per hectare, about equaling last years 2.71. The United States, Canada, China, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Australia, and Northwest Africa are forecast to produce less wheat this year versus last year. European Union and Argentina are forecast to produce more wheat than 1999/2000. India is forecast to push above last year’s record wheat crop. (See table 3 of this circular for area, yield, and production for individual countries and regions.)

United States: Wheat production for 2000/01 is forecast at 61.0 million tons, down 1.6 million or 3 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 22.0 million hectares, up 0.8 million or 4 percent from the previous season due to a higher percent of the planted area harvested for grain. Yield is forecast at 2.77 tons per hectare, down from last year's 2.87. Winter wheat production is estimated at 43.2 million tons, down 7 percent from last year. Winter wheat harvested area is projected down only slightly from last season. Yield is at 3.02 tons per hectare, down from last year’s record of 3.21 because of early dry conditions, freeze damage, disease, and insect problems. Durum wheat harvested area is forecast 12 percent higher than 1999/2000 at 1.6 million hectares, while other spring wheat harvested area is forecast up 2 percent from last year.

Canada: Wheat production in Canada for 2000/01 is forecast at 26.0 million tons, down 3 percent from last year’s crop. In 1999/2000 Canada’s planting season was delayed, but the wheat crop still achieved record yields because of very favorable rainfall and a late first fall frost. Planted area this year is actually up 6 percent over last year, but Canada is expected to return to an average yield in 2000/01 so production will be lower. Planting began on time this year and was completed early. This year the prairie provinces were too dry during early spring planting because of low precipitation over the winter. The spring rains were late arriving to parts of the prairies, but abundant rainfall in late spring and early summer has made up most of the deficit. The eastern prairies received more precipitation than the west. Manitoba made up its moisture deficit early in the planting period, and Saskatchewan had adequate soil moisture in most areas by the time planting ended. Currently, only southern Alberta has significant low soil moisture problems. In fact, Manitoba now has excessive moisture in some areas which is causing problems with fieldwork and puts the crop at greater risk of being low-quality or developing disease. The Manitoba interlake region has received the most rain in the prairies and reports that crops there are badly waterlogged. Even larger rainfall surpluses have occurred further east in Ontario where most of the winter wheat is grown. However, winter wheat accounts for only five percent of the total wheat crop. Durum plantings rose from 1.8 million hectares last year to 2.6 million hectares due to strong prices for quality durum during the past two years.

European Union (EU-15): Total EU-15 wheat production is forecast at a record 107.1 million tons for 2000/01, up 11 percent from last year. Area is forecast at a record 17.9 million hectares, up 5 percent from last year. Wheat area is up strongly throughout the EU-15 this year due to changes in the Common Agricultural Policy that make it more advantageous for farmers to grow grains over oilseeds. Spain’s harvest is estimated to be up 40 percent from last year at 7.0 million tons. In early spring, conditions were very dry and farmers feared a repeat of last year’s devastating drought. However, they received very plentiful rainfall right before much of the crop would have been irrevocably damaged and have continued to receive good rain ever since. Bumper yields are now expected on the Iberian Peninsula. In France the wheat crop is forecast at a near-record 39.0 million tons, slightly below the record 1998/99 level of 40.0 million. A record wheat area of 5.3 million hectares and reports of bumper yield potential support high production. Favorable precipitation across France has been beneficial for the crops. Production in the United Kingdom is forecast up 16 percent from last year at a record 17.3 million tons, and area is also a record at 2.2 million hectares. Farmers were initially pleased at the plentiful rainfall throughout the growing season, but now they worry that too much rain may be hurting the quality of the crop. The southeast part of the country which grows the most wheat has had at least 150 percent of its normal rainfall for the season. In Germany, crop conditions have been generally favorable with the exception of parts in the east that are too dry due to the drought in eastern Europe. Area is forecast at a record 2.0 million hectares and production at a record 22.0 million tons.

Eastern Europe: For 2000/01, Eastern Europe is forecast to produce 27.0 million tons of wheat, down 1.7 million tons or 6 percent from the lackluster 1999/00 crop. Harvested area is forecast at 8.6 percent, up 0.3 million hectares or 4 percent from last year’s dismal season. Area planted to wheat increased in 2000/01 primarily for two reasons. Less oilseed area was planted (due to low market prices), and a repeat of last season’s wet spring that ruined much of the winter crop area did not reoccur. A dry, late winter in the Balkans was the beginning of an extensive period with little rain. A severe drought has gripped the entire region throughout the spring and summer with some regions of the Balkans averaging only 20 percent of normal rainfall. The countries of Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and the former Yugoslavia were subjected to the worst of the weather. In the north, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia have fared somewhat better with slightly lower temperatures and rainfall approaching up to 70 percent of normal. Although temperatures have averaged above normal throughout eastern Europe, the Balkans have set many records and have been consistently well above average. Across the entire region, an average wheat yield of 3.14 is expected with Romania at the bottom (2.06) of the range and the Czech Republic (4.30) at the top. In Poland, production is forecast at 8.0 million tons, down12 percent from last season, with area unchanged at 2.6 million hectares. The Czech Republic is forecast to produce 4.3 million tons from 1.0 million hectares. This is an increase in production by 6 percent and an increase in area by 15 percent. Slovakia wheat production is forecast at 1.5 million tons (a 12 percent drop) and area remains unchanged at 0.4 million hectares. The production out of Hungary is estimated at 4.0 million tons from 1.0 million hectares. This is 52 percent above last season’s dismal rain-soaked crop that was the lowest since the mid 1960's. Romania has probably been hit the hardest by the constant heat and dryness, especially along the fertile Danube River Valley, where a significant portion of the crop is grown. Romania is forecast to produce 3.3 million tons, down 31 percent from last season, while area is unchanged at 1.6 million hectares. Bulgaria has increased fertilizer and pesticide usage which should help to lessen the impact of the drought. Timely showers have aided farmers in Bulgaria, however production is reduced to 2.5 million tons (14 percent less than 1999/00) and area is estimated down 10 percent. The former Yugoslavia, including the primary growing region of Vojvodina in northern Serbia, has also suffered from the oppressive spring and summer. Production is estimated down slightly (3 percent) from a very low 1999/00 crop and area is unchanged at 1.0 million tons.

Australia: The 2000/01 Australian wheat crop was planted in most regions by mid-June, and production is forecast at 23 million tons. The eastern and southern planting areas got off to a good start with early season rainfall creating excellent widespread conditions for planting. Western Australia had a slow start due to dry conditions prevailing until the first week of July, since then adequate amounts of rainfall was received throughout the grain region precluding any significant yield reductions. Crops are reported to be progressing well in most regions.

Pakistan: Despite drought conditions throughout much of Pakistan, The Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock has revised Pakistan’s 2000/01 wheat production forecast to 21 million tons, based on better-than-expected yields in the major wheat-growing areas of the Punjab. Initially, the forecast had been lower due to erratic irrigation supplies in the Sindh, but this occurred mostly at the end of the growing season and the effect on yields was minimal. The Punjab region received adequate irrigation supplies and temperatures remained mild throughout the growing season. Farmers in the Punjab reported record yield increases of 20 percent and higher above last year’s levels resulting from a number of factors, including timely planting, higher seeding rates, increased input usage and nearly ideal weather. Harvesting conditions were nearly ideal through May with temperatures near 100 degrees Fahrenheit and no rain.

India: Despite severe drought in parts of western and central India, the Government of India revised the production estimate for the 2000/01 wheat crop to a new record of 74.0 million tons. An expected decline in drought affected Gujarat and Rajasthan was reportedly offset by higher production in the other producing states. Wheat regions across northern and most of central India experienced favorably cool weather and abundant sunshine during much of February and March resulting in higher yields. Rainfall and the availability of irrigation were adequate during critical growth stages in most of the irrigated areas. Harvesting conditions were ideal through May with temperatures hovering above 100 degrees Fahrenheit and no rain. There were relatively few reports of lodging this season and Ministry of Agriculture reported test weights higher than a year ago.

Brazil: Wheat production in Brazil for 2000/01 is forecast at 2.3 million tons, or 8 percent below last year’s crop of 2.5 million. Harvested area is estimated at 1.35 million hectares, up 14 percent from 1999/00. Yield is currently forecasted at 1.7 million tons per hectare, or about 19 percent below last year’s record yield. The two key wheat producing states in Brazil are Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, collectively, they produce over 90 percent of Brazil’s wheat crop. The crop is generally planted during April to mid-June and harvested during September to November. Nearly 90 percent of the crop has been planted to date, with some slight delays in Rio Grande do Sul. Crop conditions have generally been favorable in both Parana and Rio Grande do Sul. Parts of northern Parana are under the grip of a drought, however, soil moisture conditions elsewhere in both these states continue to remain favorable. However, the critical period for Brazilian wheat is at harvest, when rains can reduce yields. Last year’s yields benefitted from an unusually dry harvest period.

Argentina: Wheat production in Argentina for 2000/01 is forecast at 15.5 million tons, up 0.5 million or 3 percent from last year’s production. Area is forecast at 6.1 million hectares up 0.2 million or 3 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 2.54 metric tons per hectare, equivalent to last year. The official government forecast places planting intentions at 6.26 million hectares, 3 percent above last year’s planted area. The larger area is expected due to higher profitability from favorable local wheat prices and reduced world supply, and an increase in combined wheat and second-crop soybean production. Some expansion into former sunflower areas is also being forecast. The beginning of the season has been wetter than normal except in southern Buenos Aires where rainfall has been close to normal. Average temperatures have been normal to slightly above normal throughout the wheat-growing region. Surface soil moisture for germination and establishment is adequate throughout the wheat region. Excessive moisture in parts of La Pampa and northwestern and eastern Buenos Aires has caused some planting delays. A July 7 government report indicated 57 percent of the area has been planted, lagging behind last season’s pace and behind the average of 61 percent planted by this time. Planting is generally completed in August. The crop is harvested from November to January.

China: Wheat production for 2000/01 is forecast at 102.0 million tons, down 11.9 million or 10 percent from last year due to lower estimated area and yield. Total wheat area is forecast at 27.0 million hectares, down 6 percent from last year. Wheat yield is estimated at 3.78 tons/hectare, slightly below the 5-year average.

According to government planting surveys, China’s 2000/01 winter wheat area was down around 4 percent this year, as sharply-lower wheat prices and changes in the government’s procurement policy led farmers along the Yangtze River to switch from low-quality winter wheat to winter rapeseed and other cash crops. Planting for the 2000/01 winter wheat crop began in September 1999 and was completed by the end of October. Scattered showers provided adequate moisture for germination and emergence over most of the North China Plain, through dryness remained a concern in northern and western wheat areas. Press reports indicated that the crop entered dormancy in good condition. Light snow cover protected the dormant wheat from cold spells in December and January, and winterkill damage was minimal. The weather from January through April was generally good. Precipitation on the North China Plain was close to normal except in western Henan, western Hebei, and parts of Shaanxi, which remained dry through the winter. Unusually hot and dry weather in May affected filling and maturing wheat on the North China Plain, but the impact on yield was not expected to be significant. The harvest started ahead of schedule and was completed by early July.

Spring wheat area dropped by an estimated 24 percent this year, the result of the elimination of the government procurement price for the low quality crop, and production is expected to decline to the lowest level since 1988/89. Moisture conditions were favorable at planting, but the weather has been hotter and drier than normal for most of the growing season. Heading occurred in June and harvesting will start in late July and continue through August.

Russia: Wheat production for 2000/01 is estimated at 34.0 million tons, up 3 million or 10 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 23.6 million hectares, up 0.6 million or 3 percent from last year. Winter wheat in European Russia benefitted from generally good weather throughout the season, and from a modest increase in fertilizer application this year. Yield potential of spring wheat may be hampered by significant weather-related sowing delays in Siberia and the Urals region, which could have the combined effect of reducing the growing season and increasing the threat of frost damage in the event of an early frost.

Ukraine: Wheat production for 2000/01 is estimated at 12.0 million tons, down 1.5 million or 11 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 5.6 million hectares, down 0.3 million or 5 percent from last year. Dry conditions prevailed in parts of southern Ukraine during May and June, and yield potential throughout the country remains severely limited by below-optimal application of fertilizers and plant-protection chemicals.

Kazakstan: Wheat production for 2000/01 is estimated at 7 million tons, down 4.2 million or 38 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 9.0 million hectares, up 0.3 million or 3 percent from last year. Conditions have been satisfactory for spring wheat – the dominant grain crop – but yield is not expected to match the near-record output of last year, when growing conditions were nearly ideal.

Morocco: Wheat production for 2000/01 is estimated down 43 percent from last year’s low crop, to 1.2 million tons. This amount is well below the 5-year average (1995-1999) of 3.2 million tons. Harvested area in 2000/01 dropped 7 percent to 2.5 million hectares. An early start to the fall planting season last year began as rains arrived early and moisture became abundant. However, from the beginning of January and until harvest, rainfall was practically non-existent and high temperatures persisted. Irrigated crops which are a small percentage of the total, and crops along higher plateaus that extracted extra moisture from affects of altitude, performed much better than wheat in other areas.

Algeria: Wheat production for 2000/01 is estimated at 0.6 million tons, down 60 percent from last year’s crop, while harvested area is down 50 percent, to 0.8 million hectare. Extreme eastern Algeria enjoyed the benefits of infrequent shower activity that sustained wheat development. However, western Algeria like Morocco was left dry and baking under a high pressure system which dominated the North African spring. It produced drought in Morocco and Algeria, dryness in Tunisia and above average temperatures throughout Northwest Africa.

Tunisia: Wheat output for 2000/01 is forecast at 0.8 million tons, down 46 percent from last season and area is down 26 percent, to 650,000 hectares. This is well below the 5-year average of 1.2 million tons and 1.4 million hectares. Fall planting was delayed until rains arrived in November and lasting through December. Minimal showers maintained low but adequate soil moisture levels during the crop season. Relatively, Tunisia wheat progressed much better than in other countries of the Maghreb. Unfortunately, a pause in rainfall during April and May reduced the already marginal soil moisture levels. The one mid-April precipitation event that occurred, while highly anticipated, did not boost moisture to needed levels. Moreover, this rain combined with above average temperatures to create a hot, humid environment that promoted the emergence of pests and fungi, reducing both yields and quality of the already drought-stricken crop.

TABLE

World Wheat: Area, Yield, and Production

Ron Roberson, Acting Foreign Grains Chair
Telephone: (202) 720-0879
E-mail: roberson@fas.usda.gov

Bryan Purcell, Northwest Africa and Eastern Europe Analyst
Telephone: (202) 690-0138
E-mail: purcellb@fas.usda.gov

Maria Anulacion, Argentina Analyst
Telephone: (202) 690-0139
E-mail: anulacion@fas.usda.gov

Paulette Sandene, China Analyst
Telephone: (202) 690-0133
E-mail: sandene@fas.usda.gov

Mark Lindeman, FSU Analyst
Telephone: (202) 690-0143
E-mail: lindeman@fas.usda.gov

Suzanne Miller, EU-15 and Canada Analyst
Telephone: (202) 720-0882
E-mail: millers@fas.usda.gov

Jim Crutchfield, India and Australia Analyst
Telephone: (202) 690-0135
E-mail: crutchfield@fas.usda.gov

Rao Achutuni, Brazil and Paraguay Analyst
Telephone (202) 690-0140
E-mail:achutuni@fas.usda.gov

Higher Prices Spur U.S. Cotton Production, While Foreign Output Falls in 2000/01

World cotton area and production for the 2000/01 season is estimated at 32.6 million hectares and 87.4 million bales. This forecast was based on several factors with cotton prices and those of competing crops playing a crucial role. Cotton production is also influenced by domestic and world financial conditions, government policies, and weather.

The Cotlook A-Index represents the price level of international raw cotton offered to the market on a daily basis from several cotton trading countries. Generally, a direct relationship exists between cotton area and production, and price indexes for the previous year. This relationship is shown in the price/area and price/production charts (see Charts 1-3). Using the A-price index as a reflection of world cotton prices, the average annual Cotlook A-Index has dropped for the past five years from the most recent peak of 92.8 cents per pound of lint in 1994/95 (Charts 1-2). As the charts show, production movements have generally followed price. Cotton prices have increased rapidly since the beginning of this calendar year, contradicting the price drops of the previous two years (Chart 3). The upward movement in price appears to have pulled 2000/01 world area and production above the 1999/2000 level. This comes despite the Government of China continued discouragement of cotton production and despite drought in Pakistan and middle-East and high production cost in Turkey and Egypt that has shifted area out of cotton. With these factors affecting production and area, world cotton production and area for 2000/01 is estimated at 32.6 million hectares and 87.4 million bales. This compares closely with 32.3 million hectares for 1999/2000, but 0.8 million bales above the 86.6 million for 1999/2000 as a larger U.S. crop more than offsets lower foreign production.

United States: Cotton is estimated at 19.3 million bales from 17.0 million last season as area is up nearly 0.5 million hectares on higher international prices over the past six months. Also, U.S. yield potential is up on favorable weather events from California to Texas offsetting the drought in the Southeast. This estimate assumes historical average area abandonment from 6 to 8 percent. Cotton planting and development progressed at a normal pace through mid-June, with 88 percent planted and 11 percent squaring on June 11. Development was most advanced in Arizona and California, but acreage squaring accelerated in the lower Mississippi Valley due to warm weather. Increasing moisture shortages stressed cotton in most areas of the Southeast and lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the southern High Plains. Meanwhile, rain provided adequate moisture in scattered parts of northern Texas.

China: Cotton output for 2000/01 is estimated at 17.5 million bales (3.81 million tons), down 0.1 million or less than 1 percent from the 1999/00 crop. Area is estimated at 3.75 million hectares, up slightly from last year’s record-low area. The estimated yield of 1016 KG/Ha is above the 5-year average but lower than last year’s record yield due to unfavorably dry weather in many cotton-producing provinces.

Cotton area dropped significantly in 1999/2000 in response to low procurement prices and government policies intended to reduce excess cotton stocks. Area was expected to drop in 2000/01 for the same reasons, and planting intentions were initially as low as 3.3 to 3.4 million hectares. However, rising cotton prices in Spring 2000 and increased consumption in recent months led farmers to plant more cotton than anticipated. The latest area survey by the National Bureau of Statistics indicated that spring-sown cotton area increased by about 60,000 hectares from a year ago. The Ministry of Agriculture and local officials also reported that cotton area would be similar to last year.

Growing conditions for the 2000/01 cotton crop have been mixed. In Xinjiang, where about 1/3 of China’s cotton is produced, the weather has been better than last year. However, farmers are having minor problems with insects, but the impact on yields is not expected to be serious. On the North China Plain, drought conditions in May and June stressed spring-sown cotton and delayed summer cotton planting, but heavy rain since July 1 has reduced the moisture deficit and improved yield prospects. Central China has adequate to excessive moisture for cotton development.

India: Assuming a normal monsoon, 2000/01 cotton production is forecast at 12.3 million bales. Though cotton planting in the northen states was completed on time, the unexpected cessation of rains in the central and western zones caused planting to come to a complete halt and there are reports of minor losses to the early planted crop due to the dry conditions. During the first week of July, the monsoon rains resumed thereby allowing farmers to continue planting in the areas of Gujarat, Rajasthan, and western Madhya Pradesh. The next few weeks will be crucial in determining actual planted area and size of the 2000/01 cotton crop. Planting in the irrigated northern states of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan was completed in May and the crop is reported to be progressing well.

Pakistan: Cotton production for 2000/01 is estimated at 7.3 million bales, 1.1 million below last year’s exceptionally high yielding crop. Area is expected to decline only marginally from 1999/2000. The cotton crop had a erratic start due to dry conditions at planting. Irrigation problems, due to last year’s weak monsoon and delayed snow melt due to cooler temperatures reduced early irrigation supplies particularly in some areas of the Sindh. In the last few weeks the irrigation situation has improved with flow rates increasing to the major reservoirs.

Australia: Production for 2000/01 is forecast at 3.2 million bales. This forecast assumes normal weather conditions and sufficient water availability. A gradual improvement in the price outlook for cotton may lead to marginally higher area, driven by increases in dryland cotton area wherever soil moisture allows, at time of planting (October - November). The major factor influencing Australia cotton production is irrigation water supplies. The outlook for water availability during the 2000/01 season is reported to be excellent by industry sources. Australian cotton yields have shown an increasing trend in recent years reflecting improved agronomic practices employed by growers and the use of improved cotton varieties.

Turkey: Cotton for the outyear is estimated at 3.5 million bales, down from last year’s estimate of 3.7 million. The Government of Turkey’s National Cotton Advisory Board (NCAB) estimated 2000/01 production at nearly 3.4 million bales, but other sources believe the NCAB is on the low side. The decrease in production is largely attributed to reduction in area harvested from 719,300 hectares in 1999/00 to 670,000 hectares in 2000/01. In addition, unusually rainy weather during May in the Aegean and Cukurova regions made replanting necessary with these fields vulnerable to yield losses during the coming October rains. While cotton area is increasing in the Southeastern Anatolia as a result of the Southeastern Anatolian Project (GAP), it is decreasing in the Cukurova and Aegean regions due to farmers shifting to a corn-wheat rotation or to horticultural production caused by low cotton returns as cost have risen during the past few years. Given the slow pace of expansion of irrigation infrastructure for the GAP, increases in area are not expected to offset declining cotton area within the traditional growing areas.

Argentina: Cotton production for 2000/01 is forecast to increase to 0.85 million bales, 48 percent larger than the previous season. Area is forecast at 450,000 hectares, 50 percent higher than last season. As of June 30, the 1999/2000 crop is approximately 72 percent harvested. Higher yield and lower production costs are expected to provide relatively good returns for farmers this year compared to previous years that were plagued by weather problems. The 1999/2000 crop is currently estimated at 0.575 million bales. Planting intentions for the 2000/01 crop are expected to be similar to last season’s. Dry conditions at the beginning of last season delayed planting and also prevented fulfillment of the total intended area. Only 300,000 hectares were finally planted. Some farmers had no choice but to plant alternative crops such as soybeans, sunflowers and corn. Although some planting of alternative crops may continue this season, cotton is the traditional crop of the region and will remain attractive to due to its higher return. The use of new seed varieties is expected to grow. Although, transgenic cotton, specifically Bt cotton, is currently only a small portion (less than 4 percent) of the 1999/00 crop, a threefold increase is expected in 2000/01. The reduced production costs and risks associated with new seed varieties are expected to result in more stable acreage and production in the future.

Brazil: Cotton production for 2000/01 is forecast at 2.9 million bales, up 8 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 0.79 million hectares, an increase of about 10 percent from last year. Cotton production in Brazil has recently shifted from the traditional states of Parana and Sao Paulo into the states of Mato Grosso and Goias, (Center-Oeste Region), Bahia (Nordeste), and Minas Gerais (Sudeste). Cotton production in marginal areas has given way to large mechanized commercial farms. Cotton consumption in Brazil has increased recently due to higher domestic production, lower imports of cotton yarns and fabrics following the devaluation of the Real, and higher activity of the textile industry in both the domestic as well as export yarn, fabric and apparel markets.

Egypt: Cotton production for 2000/01 is estimated at 850,000 bales, down 19 percent from last season. This decline is a direct result of a reduction in area of 18 percent, to 225,000 hectares. The estimated harvested area will be the lowest level in over 100 years. The decline in area can be attributed to farmers’ reluctance to plant the highly labor intensive cotton crop. Its return is much lower than the return generated from other crops. For example, growing a fall wheat/summer rice crop rotation produces a considerably higher profit than a fall forage/summer cotton combination. The Egyptian Government, however, is attempting to encourage a shift from planting rice to planting cotton. Both crops are irrigated from the limited waters of the Nile, but cotton does not demand the levels of water that rice requires. Despite it’s wishes to protect its most precious resource, the government didn’t announce a minimum guaranteed procurement price for the 1999/00 crop, so some farmers were reluctant to plant area to cotton.

Mexico: Cotton production for 2000/01 is expected to fall to approximately 300,000 bales, down 55 percent from last year. Producers have reduced spring/summer area to 69,000 hectares, down 55 percent from last year, which was also a below-normal year. Area was reduced due to inadequate Mexican Government support programs and low domestic prices. Dry weather and seasonally hot temperatures in some parts of the north have not yet negatively impacted production, however the demand for water in July will make the arrival of the annual monsoon a critical factor in deciding whether yields will also be reduced. This is particularly true for the major producing state of Sonora, which is entirely irrigated, and largely dependent upon water sources such as reservoirs that are presently at 20 percent of capacity or less.

Uzbekistan: Cotton production of 2000/01 is estimated at 5.1 million bales, down 0.2 million or 4 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 1.4 million hectares, down 0.1 million from last year. Yield prospects are mixed: planting and establishment conditions were favorable, with little replanting required, but some local observers have reported a serious deficit of irrigation water resulting from the third consecutive year of below–normal precipitation.

Table: 1

World Cotton Area, Yield, and Production

Ronald R. Roberson, Cotton and Rice Chairperson
Phone: (202) 720-0879
E-mail: roberson@fas.usda.gov

James Crutchfield, India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan Analyst
Telephone (202) 690-0135
E-mail: crutchfield@fas.usda.gov

Paulette Sandene, China and Japan Analyst
Telephone (202) 690-0133
E-mail:sandene@fas.usda.gov

Suzanne Miller, Southeast Asia Analyst
Telephone: (202) 720-0882
E-mail: millers@fas.usda.gov

Rao Achutuni, Brazil and Paraguay Analyst
Telephone (202) 690-0140
E-mail:achutuni@fas.usda.gov

Maria Anulacion, Argentina and Uruguay Analyst
Telephone (202) 690-0139
E-mail:anulacionm@fas.usda.gov

Bryan Purcell, Eastern Europe and North Africa Analyst
Telephone (202) 690-0138
E-mail:purcellb@fas.usda.gov

Mark Lindeman, Former Soviet Union Analyst
Telephone (202) 690-0143
E-mail:lindeman@fas.usda.gov


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