April 24, 2000

SCARCE FUEL SUPPLIES IMPEDE PLANTING IN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE

Signals are mixed regarding the availability of fuel for the spring sowing campaign in Russia and Ukraine. In Russia, a likely increase in State support could result in increased fuel availability for the agricultural sector, according to an U.S. agricultural attache report. Recent comments by agricultural officials, however, indicate that fuel shortages have already had an impact on planting progress and warn of continued shortages during spring planting. This is nothing new -- agricultural officials routinely raise alarms warning of insufficient resources for the spring planting campaign in an effort to stimulate increased State funding for the agricultural sector. Planting-progress data, however, suggest that the problem has genuinely intensified over the past five years. Due chiefly to scarce fuel supplies and a lack of operational equipment, the amount of time required to complete spring planting has increased in recent years, effectively shortening the growing season for spring crops and reducing yield potential. Between 1992 and 1995, for example, spring planting in Russia was typically 60 percent complete by May 20; between 1996 and 1999, only 45 percent complete.

The U.S. agricultural office in Kiev recently reported that a continuing lack of fuel, fertilizer, and plant-protection chemicals will prevent a significant rebound in grain production this year. (See March 29 Ukraine update.) Statements made by Ukrainian agricultural officials, quoted by Bridge news service, suggest that fuel shortages may indeed have limited spring-grain area this year. According to one official, the planting of early spring grain crops was virtually complete as of April 20, though no actual area figures were cited. In a separate report, another official forecast that production of barley (the major spring grain crop) would drop from 6.4 million tons last year to no more than 5.5 million for 2000/01, implying either a significant reduction in sown area or a sharp drop from last year's already-below-normal yield. A decrease in spring barley area could have an especially large impact on 2000/01 grain production, based on Ukrainian agricultural officials' earlier announcement that roughly 1.5 million hectares of winter crops needed to be resown with spring grains because of poor establishment last fall.

Conditions were generally favorable for winter grains as they emerged from dormancy following a relatively mild winter. PECAD crop-growth models as of April 15 indicate that winter grains had entered the stem-extension (jointing) stage throughout Ukraine and Russia's North Caucasus region. Last year at this time, the crop stage was ahead of normal, due to unusually warm weather which accelerated crop development.

The USDA will release official estimates of worldwide 2000/01 grain production in May. Click on estimates to view current USDA area and production for the republics of the former Soviet Union.

For more information, contact Mark Lindeman with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 720-0888.