May 16, 2000

RECENT COLD INFLICTS MINOR DAMAGE ON RUSSIA GRAINS

From May 1 through May 4, and again from May 12 through May 14, temperatures dropped below freezing throughout the Russian winter-grain region. The winter-grain zone is situated in European Russia and includes the North Caucasus, lower Volga Valley, and Central Black Earth regions in the southern portion, and the upper Volga Valley, Central, and Volga-Vyatka regions in the north. At the time of the two cold spells, winter grains were largely in the jointing (stem-extension) stage, during which they are able to withstand temperatures of -4 degrees without damage. The development of spring-planted grains, which are grown throughout the winter-wheat zone, was roughly two weeks behind that of the winter grains, which enabled them to sustain even colder weather. Temperatures generally did not fall below -2 degrees Celsius in the main (southern) grain-production zone, where winter wheat is the major crop. In the more northern regions, where temperatures reportedly dropped to -9 degrees Celsius, spring grains and cold-tolerant winter rye are the predominant winter grains, and damage likely was relatively minor.

Meanwhile, the spring-sowing campaign has been proceeding at a normal pace, despite officials’ early-season warnings of impending fuel shortages. Planting was roughly 40 percent complete as of May 12, and is typically finished by early June. Winter grains are in better-than-average condition, and the weather has been generally favorable for spring crops. Although farms have reported an increase in the use of fertilizer and plant-protection chemicals for the first time in over ten years, application rates remain far below the levels of the late 1980's and early 1990's and will continue to limit yield potential. The USDA estimates 2000/01 total-grain production at 61.4 million tons (including approximately 1.6 million tons of pulses and miscellaneous grains), against 54.8 million last year. Russian agricultural officials estimate production at 70 to 75 million tons, based on "bunker-weight" projections of 75 to 80 million tons.

USDA 2000/01 area and production estimates for the republics of the former Soviet Union.

For more information, contact Mark Lindeman with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 720-0888.