August 16, 2000

KAZAKSTAN WHEAT PROSPECTS IMPROVE

The USDA increased its estimate of Kazakstan 2000/01 wheat production from 7.0 to 8.0 million tons, down from last year's bumper crop of 11.2 million. Total grain production is forecast at 10.5 million tons, against 14.2 million last year. Area increased appoximately 4 percent from last year, to 9.0 million hectares of wheat and 11.4 million total grain. Conditions have been generally favorable for spring wheat in north-central Kazakstan (the key wheat-production zone) since the beginning of the growing season, with adequate precipitation in the form of frequent light-to-moderate showers. Temperatures climbed into the upper 30's (degrees C) during the first week of August, but the crop had already advanced beyond the temperature-sensitive reproductive stage, and damage was likely minimal. Vegetation indices from late July indicate that crop conditions in Kazakstan were not as good as in 1999, when near-ideal conditions prevailed, but better than during the drought of 1998 when wheat output nose-dived to 4.7 million tons.

A note on vegetative-index interpretation: The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), derived from the AVHRR satellite imagery, is a widely-used indicator of crop conditions and yield potential. The NDVI measures the amount of infra-red reflectance, which increases as plant biomass and vigor increase. Spring wheat in Kazakstan typically advances through reproductive stage in mid-July; this is when the vegetative index reaches its peak and imagery provides the best indicator of yield potential. Vegetative-index analysis can be an effective tool for crop assessment, but care must be taken to properly interpret the data, as cloud cover can interfere significantly with imagery acquisition and complicate, or invalidate, year-to-year comparisons.

For more information, contact Mark Lindeman with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 720-0888.