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PAKISTAN WHEAT PRODUCTION OUTLOOK
Pakistan Wheat: Economic and climatic conditions less
favorable for the 2001/02 crop.
The Pakistan 2001/02 wheat crop sowing began in November 2000
and will be harvested in April 2001. As the planting window
closes, approximately 70 percent of the crop has been planted.
Conditions this season for wheat production are stacking up to be
less than favorable.
Reduced Inputs:
Escalating energy costs have resulted in higher world prices
for fertilizers. For Pakistan this will likely have significant
ramifications on local farmers use of inputs. This could result
in a sharp yield decreases from last season, particularly in the
Punjab province, which produces approximately 80 percent of the
crop.
GOP Policy:
Unlike last year, the government of Pakistan has not
announced a significant procurement price increase. The lack of a
higher wheat procurement price combined with higher cost of
production will lower the already nominal profit margin of many
farmers. Some farmers may shift crop areas, but wheat farming has
a strong tradition in many areas and typically responds less to
economic factors than otherwise might be presumed.
Irrigation Reservoirs:
The most serious production factor facing Pakistan this
season is the dwindling supply of irrigation water. The lack of
irrigation water will likely have a serious impact on planted
area this season. Major irrigation reservoirs are currently at
very low levels; compounding the problem is the outflow for
planting during the rabi season, which is greater than intake.
Low levels of irrigation availability has typically resulted in
government enforced allocations for major canals. These
irrigation canal allocation limits often are unable to supply all
of the crop's moisture requirements, and therefore become a
yield-limiting factor. Unless recharged, December 2000 low
reservoir levels will limit canal irrigation water availability.
The low levels in the main reservoirs of Mangla and Tarbela are
the result of less snowfall and rainfall accumulations over the
past few months.
Analysis of catchment basin for the Tarbela Reservoir: Catchment Area Analysis
and Precipitation
Tarbela Reservoir is on border Punjab and NWFP border. The
Tarbela reservoir provides canal irrigation water for 50 percent
of Pakistan's agricultural land. The reservoir has a unique
catchment source, and a catchment area of 170,000 square km. The
major source of Tarbela is the Tibetan plateau and the Indus
river basin. The Snowmelt from seven glaciers feed the Indus
providing 80 to 90 percent of its capacity, the remainder being
rainfed. As temperatures rise in the basin so does flow.
Typically in the month of May the flows increase until the end of
July and peak flow is in August. The 1999 snow accumulation was
less than normal and cooler temperatures contributed to delayed
melting. The reservoir reached peak volume only for a few hours
before the seasonal release began in 2000, lowering water levels.
Thus far in 2000, accumulation during the snowfall months is lower this year. Rainfall is also estimated to be less this season. With the 2000 season snow and rain accumulation period largely over, Pakistan will need to implement judicious canal water allocation plans given the low reservoir levels.
Rainfed Areas:
The rainfed areas also continue to receive less rainfall than
normal climatic averages.
Rebound prospects:
Conditions necessary to boost this season's wheat yields are
timely winter rains and early season cool temperatures in the
wheat growing areas. Areas of the Punjab that have tube well
irrigation will be able to supplement canal water shortages.
For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0135 or by e-mail at crutchfieldj@fas.usda.gov.
