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December 6, 2000
But two consecutive drought years may affect 2001/02 wheat production
Iran’s rainfall from September through November 2000 was normal to above normal for most parts of the country. During the month of October, rainfall was above normal in the central region while rainfall during November was above normal in the northwest and southern regions. Wheat is normally planted during September-October and the recent October-November rains should have allowed good wheat germination in most areas.
Successive droughts affecting the 1999/2000 and 2000/01 crops seriously reduced wheat production in those years. The 2000/01 drought was the worst since 1964, and major reservoirs and hydro-electric facilities ran dry last summer. Good rainfall is still needed to replenish reservoir water levels and soil moisture. The lack of irrigation and soil moisture reserves may still impact prospects for strong crop development for the current growing season. In addition, initial reports indicate the lack of seeds from the past two crop failures may have reduced area planted. The 2001/02 wheat crop will be harvested in June-July 2001.
Wheat production for the 2000/01 marketing year was 7.5 million tons. Given the dry conditions of the past two years, complete crop recovery is unlikely in 2001/02, even if Iran continues to experience near normal rainfall this growing season. If near normal rainfall occurs, the 2001/02 wheat crop still may only be slightly improved from this year's harvest due to lack of seeds, reduced planting area, and low water reserves.
For more information, contact Curt Reynolds with the Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division at (202) 690-0134 or by
e-mail at ReynoldsC@fas.usda.gov.
