Australia Wheat Production Forecast Lowered December

New South Wales:
Record rainfall in parts of northern New South Wales resulted in flooded fields and significant losses to quality. However, good weather conditions in the southern part of the state should result in near average regional yield. The area affected by the heavy rains and flooding represents approximately 30 percent of the state's sown area, and of this amount about one-third had been harvested before the rains arrived. The discrepancy in private sector ‘loss' estimates is largely due to differences in opinions on whether the northern New South Wales wheat fields containing sprouted grain will be harvested or abandoned. Excessive rainfall in northern New South Wales was the issue of major concern this month both from a quantity and quality standpoint. An assessment of flooding in New South Wales reveals that total loss of production will be minimal, based on wheat production potential data and higher resolution rainfall data. However, USDA's estimate of Australia's wheat crop has been lowered to 19.5 million tons. Additionally, significant losses in quality are likely to occur as the remaining rain damage wheat is harvested.

Queensland:
Queensland's grain harvest was virtually complete before the excessive rainfall period of November. The rainfall and flooding had limited affects on total Queensland production.

Western Australia:
Western Australia experienced mostly dry conditions throughout the growing season. Recent harvest information from Western Australia, however, indicates some areas have performed better than expected and overall state yield may not be as low as initially forecast. Total wheat production in Western Australia is projected to be significantly below normal, but slightly improved over last month's forecast.

Victoria and South Australia:
These states are expected to experience the highest wheat production in several years with above average yields resulting from favorable weather this season.

Potential Locust Damage:
A successful campaign of spraying and proper weather conditions combined to make this less of a factor this season.

In Summary:
Most of the south-east Australia grain regions have experienced favorable weather this season, sustaining yields equal to or higher than the five year averages. Western Australia's dry conditions will significantly impact Australia's total grain production this season. Lower yields in the biggest grain producing state will lead to substantial production decrease this season. The current forecast is 12.0 million hectares of harvested area and a total Australia wheat production of 19.5 million tons. Barley production is estimated unchanged at 5.4 million tons.

Australia Wheat Background Information

Australia Wheat and Climate
Wheat is Australia’s most important crop having a seasonal gross value approaching three billion Australian dollars. Australian wheat is a major competitor of US wheat exports. Australian wheat is grown as a ‘winter’ crop (autumn-winter-spring), often in rotation with some form of pasture. Wheat production is concentrated on the mainland in a narrow crescent know as the wheat belt, which receives approximately 400 to 600 mm average annual rainfall. Areas with less than 40cm per year are too dry to support winter grains, and areas receiving greater than 60 cm develop pest and disease problems in winter grains. The eastern portion of the wheat belt stretches in a curve, inland of the dividing range, from central Queensland through New South Wales, Victoria, and southern South Australia. The western portion of the wheat belt continues around the south west area of Western Australia. The acreage planted to wheat during recent season has averaged 11 million hectares producing 19 million tons. Much of the wheat growing region is in sub-humid and semi-arid zones. This region has large areas of red-brown and black soils that are less leached and more fertile. Interestingly, Australian soil generally does not show a consistent correlation with climate, mainly because of the persistence in certain regions of leached soils formed in ancient wetter climatic conditions. The remaining portion of the wheat belt is in the higher-rainfall areas. These soils are low fertility, often needing trace elements as well as phosphorus, nitrogen, and sulfur. Artificial fertilizers can allow these soils to support highly productive pastures which have potential for mixed farming. In general, the Australian wheat, and other major crops (with the exception of sugarcane) are grown between the two extreme climatic zones. The interior edge of the agricultural crescent is formed by the exceptionally dry and erratic precipitation pattern of the interior, and the geographical outer edge of the wheat belt crescent is created by the excessive moisture of the coastal climate. Winter rains over this narrow belt can be highly variable though in most years provides the needed moisture levels for crop growth. Virtually all of Australia wheat is rainfed. Irrigation is applied to higher value crops such as cotton and rice.

For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0135 or by e-mail at crutchfieldj@fas.usda.gov.


Updated: September 05, 2003	Write us: Pecadinfo@fas.usda.gov	Index \| \| FAS Home \| USDA \|